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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hawkfield Jackieb 2y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 29 (4) | 33 (4) | 25 (6) | 38 (1) | 33 (2) | 80 (3) | 29 (4) | 33 (1) | 19 (6) | 23 (3) | 31 | 32 | - | 38 | 63 | 49 | 4 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Susies Returnb 4y 26 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 38 (1) | 26 (4) | 26 (4) | 32 (3) | 37 (1) | 25 (1) | 27 (3) | 21 (6) | 32 (3) | 32 (1) | 33 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 60 | 47 | 5 | 10/3 | |
| 3 | ▶ No Dont Panicd 3y 16 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 33 (6) | 28 (3) | 32 (3) | 43 (4) | 38 (1) | 92 (1) | 38 (2) | 33 (3) | 39 (2) | - | 42 | 53 | 51 | 55 | 64 | 57 | 2 | 7/4F | |
| 4 | ▶ Race For Spudb 3y 25 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 30 (3) | 24 (4) | 24 (5) | 30 (2) | 32 (2) | 32 (6) | 29 (2) | 24 (1) | - | - | 45 | 43 | 26 | 51 | 67 | 57 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Only The Futureb 3y 8 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 20 (6) | 31 (2) | 37 (6) | 43 (4) | 55 (3) | 22 (5) | 18 (5) | 23 (5) | 27 (2) | 38 (1) | 51 | 60 | 31 | 45 | 61 | 57 | 3 | 4/1 | |
Best performance in the field at ap67 — three points clear of the next best — and best speed at sr53, also clear of the sr50 cluster. At Valley 260m where speed is the dominant predictor (R1 wins 29.16%), this double R1 stack is the strongest signal in the race. The Fader profile (EP 0, CS 0, pCon 90) would be a dealbreaker at 460m but at 260m the trip is too short for the fade to develop — the same principle as Romford sprints where Faders can hold because the race ends before closing speed matters. CD record of 3w/3p from just 5 runs is a 60% win strike rate at Valley 260m — exceptional even accounting for the small sample. The caveat is trial contamination: two T-grade runs in the last 5 (D5, D5, D5, T4, T4) inflate the averages. But even discounting the trials, the recent D5 form shows class to spare at D3 level — this is a dog dropping in grade with the speed to back it up. T4 trap wins only 15.83% at D3 260m but at this trip speed overrides draw.
DANGER: Best suitability (53/55/42/51) and best CD record (3w/5p/10r) make her the obvious threat. Trial contamination is a concern but even adjusting for that, the Valley 260m knowledge is real. Primary threat to the pick.
UNCERTAIN: Ability level is there (ap63, CD 2w/10r) but class suitability 0 and below-average trap position make it hard to lead the case. Place prospect rather than win contender.
MINOR THREAT: Good trap draw (T2 at 22.38%) is the main asset. But 1w from 10 CD runs suggests she underperforms at this specific condition. Draw alone won't overcome the speed deficit to T4.
UNLIKELY: Best trap draw (T6 at 23.64%) but worst speed in field by a huge margin (sr39 vs sr53 for R1). The 14-point speed gap overwhelms the trap advantage at a distance where speed is everything.
Speed R1 wins 29.16% from 487 runs — the standout factor at D3 260m. T6 is best trap at 23.64% (220r) and T2 second at 22.38% (277r). Large dataset gives high confidence. D-grade tier historically the most predictable (31.1% base win rate).
T1:16.36% T2:22.38% T3:19.25% T4:15.83% T5:17.74% T6:23.64%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.