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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crokers Antond 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 45 | 21 (5) | 25 (2) | 18 (6) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 20 (3) | 27 (1) | 15 (5) | 15 (6) | 23 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 53 | 40 | 5 | 8/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Miss Ballb 4y 26 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 10 (6) | 15 (4) | 19 (4) | 24 (3) | 19 (5) | 20 (4) | 26 (1) | 19 (3) | 18 (5) | 18 (5) | 29 | 23 | 12 | 23 | 50 | 39 | 6 | 25/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Chesters Boyd 4y 37 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 38 | 62 (3) | 74 (1) | 69 (1) | 28 (2) | 32 (3) | 22 (6) | 33 (1) | 34 (6) | 20 (1) | - | 54 | 31 | 15 | 37 | 61 | 53 | 3 | 4/5F | |
| 4 | ▶ Kildallon Poppyb 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | - | 21 (3) | 27 (1) | 19 (3) | 21 (2) | 21 (3) | 12 (6) | 12 (5) | 9 (6) | 22 (3) | 16 (5) | 30 | 29 | - | 29 | 53 | 42 | 4 | 25/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Sunamib 2y 7 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 75 | 33 (1) | 29 (2) | 22 (5) | 31 (1) | 20 (5) | 24 (2) | 27 (2) | 19 (5) | 23 (4) | 24 (2) | 39 | 33 | 42 | 36 | 52 | 45 | 1 | 6/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Not To Worrieb 3y 6 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 28 (3) | 25 (3) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 25 (2) | 28 (1) | 21 (4) | 18 (5) | 18 (4) | 17 (5) | 51 | 31 | 55 | 32 | 52 | 47 | 2 | 10/3 | |
Selected on overwhelming speed and pace credentials at a distance where these are the dominant factors. Speed at sr58 is five points clear of the field — a significant margin. Early pace at EP 79 is the best by a wide margin and bend rating at bR75 is 30+ points ahead of the nearest rival with pace data. The Fader label (CS 23) is irrelevant at 260m — the race ends before any fading can develop. She'll break fastest, lead through the single bend with a commanding bend rating, and reach the line before the fade kicks in. The CD record of 0w/4p from 9 runs is the major question mark — how does the fastest dog with the best early pace consistently place without winning at Valley 260m? The 4 places from 9 suggest she's competitive every time but something (perhaps interference, or marginally mistiming the bend entry from T5) costs her the win. Today, with every speed and pace metric pointing her way, the numbers say she should convert. The D4/A6 form at higher grades adds class depth. T5 wins 23.11% — second-best trap.
DANGER: Best trap (27.46%), proven CD winner (2w/10r), best class fit (sC55). The pick's 0-for-9 CD record makes T6's proven conversion the most compelling alternative. Will benefit if the speed leader fails to convert again.
OPPOSE: Closer at Valley 260m with below-average trap and low suitability. The CS 82 closing speed is wasted when there's no distance to deploy it.
UNLIKELY: Joint second-best speed (sr53) but 10% CD win rate from 10 attempts says the speed isn't translating. Poor suitability and no pace data add uncertainty.
STRUCTURAL MISMATCH: Best perf (ap61) by a wide margin but sr41 at a 260m sprint is too slow. Class override doesn't apply at ultra-short sprints where speed is the 30.67% dominant factor. Trial contamination further weakens the case.
OUTCLASSED: Worst speed (sr37), worst trap (13.69%), class rise from D6. Triple structural negative. CD 2w/10r shows some Valley ability but against today's speed, not enough.
Speed R1 wins 30.67% from 375 runs — the dominant factor. T6 is the best trap at 27.46% (193r), T5 second at 23.11% (225r). Outside traps heavily favoured at D5 260m.
T1:16.53% T2:21.4% T3:16.18% T4:13.69% T5:23.11% T6:27.46%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.