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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ashway Dustyb 4y 27 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 55 | 54 (3) | 54 (3) | 66 (1) | 48 (4) | 54 (2) | 56 (2) | 40 (5) | 54 (5) | 72 (1) | 61 (3) | 49 | 46 | 26 | 46 | 62 | 55 | 1 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Burgess Julieb 3y 35 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 48 | 48 (4) | 56 (3) | 35 (6) | 45 (5) | 75 (1) | 58 (3) | 21 (2) | 51 (5) | 56 (3) | 70 (1) | 21 | 15 | - | 19 | 55 | 39 | 6 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Country Skipperd 3y 32 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 49 | 16 (6) | 33 (1) | 28 (2) | 23 (5) | 25 (2) | 23 (3) | 43 (4) | 49 (4) | 50 (5) | 76 (1) | 31 | 23 | 38 | 34 | 56 | 44 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Gavins Caked 3y 34 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 55 | 42 (5) | 71 (1) | 33 (3) | 34 (2) | 73 (1) | 62 (2) | 71 (1) | 33 (1) | 25 (2) | 44 (5) | 22 | 19 | 40 | 28 | 57 | 41 | 5 | 5/2JF | |
| 5 | ▶ Wilbrook Tommyd 4y 24 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 67 | 22 (5) | 36 (1) | 34 (1) | 28 (2) | 33 (1) | 23 (4) | 36 (4) | 41 (5) | 28 (2) | 16 (6) | 31 | 28 | 46 | 31 | 57 | 45 | 2 | 5/2JF | |
| 6 | ▶ Honeygar Princed 5y 23 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 45 | 15 (5) | 46 (4) | 55 (2) | 50 (2) | 53 (2) | 59 (2) | 51 (2) | 46 (4) | 47 (3) | 53 (3) | 25 | 32 | 23 | 45 | 59 | 46 | 3 | 11/4 | |
Double R1 on performance (ap62, 3 points clear) and speed (sr53, 2 points clear) in a field where the Closer profile is less of a liability than usual. At Valley 460m Closers normally face structural opposition, but this field has no strong Front Runners — the pace is set by two Faders (T2 at CS 14, T5 at CS 43) who will demonstrably weaken through the middle bends. Dusty's EP 46 means she won't be last at the first bend — she's a mild Closer who tracks in mid-division and accelerates late. CS 68 is the best closing speed in the field, perfectly positioned to exploit the fading pace ahead. Drawn T1 which is the best trap at A5 460m (23.68% from 114 runs), giving the rail for ground-saving through every bend. CD record of 3w/5p from 10 runs is a 30% win rate with 50% placing — the best in the field. Suitability scores are uniformly strong (46/46/49) with good trap fit. Trainer at 22% is moderate. The composite R1 signal at 31.38% is one of the strongest at Valley — when you're R1 on composite at A5 460m, you win nearly one in three.
DANGER: Best bend rating (bR67) and EP 63 mean he'll lead early. Speed R2 at sr51 and the unusual R2>R1 speed stat at A5 460m both favour him. CS 43 fading is the risk — will the Closer catch him?
OPPOSE: CS 14 guarantees catastrophic late fading. Worst trap (11.76%), worst suitability profile. Will lead briefly then be swallowed by the field through bends 2-4.
MINOR PLACE THREAT: Best closing speed (CS 72) but worst-in-field speed (sr39) means the closing happens too slowly. Can place if the Faders collapse dramatically but unlikely to reach the pick.
UNLIKELY: Worst speed (sr35), poor CD conversion (1w/9r), and below-average trap. The All-Rounder profile is wasted without the raw numbers to compete.
MINOR THREAT: All-Rounder profile is workable at Valley 460m and CD form is encouraging. But ap59/sr46 doesn't quite match the pick or danger. Will compete for places.
Comp R1 wins at an elite 31.38% from 188 runs — one of the strongest R1 signals at Valley. T1 is the best trap (23.68% from 114r). T2 is the worst (11.76% from 119r). Speed R2 actually beats R1 (25.95% vs 25.28%) — unusual inversion suggesting pace isn't everything at A5 460m.
T1:23.68% T2:11.76% T3:21.01% T4:12% T5:21.49% T6:20.88%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ashway Dusty | 46 | 68 | Closer |
2Burgess Julie | 67 | 14 | Fader |
3Country Skipper | 45 | 72 | Closer |
4Gavins Cake | 54 | 47 | All-Rounder |
5Wilbrook Tommy | 63 | 43 | Fader |
6Honeygar Prince | 41 | 53 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.