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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Nitro Novab 2y 55 | A G Rawlings — 20% R236 W47 P136 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 45 | 57 (2) | 53 (3) | 46 (5) | 68 (2) | 74 (1) | 45 (5) | 59 (2) | 43 (5) | 67 (1) | 33 (6) | 23 | 6 | - | 30 | 54 | 38 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Crokers Oceand 2y 111 | C Darch — 22% R393 W88 P221 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 68 | 81 (1) | 74 (2) | 62 (3) | 54 (4) | 55 (5) | 33 (1) | 76 (1) | 31 (2) | 29 (2) | 34 (1) | 58 | 42 | 25 | 44 | 60 | 56 | 2 | 8/13F | |
| 4 | ▶ Poker Acesb 3y 27 | C Darch — 22% R393 W88 P221 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 43 | 20 (4) | 16 (6) | 18 (5) | 27 (2) | 30 (1) | 20 (5) | 28 (2) | 20 (6) | 19 (5) | - | 15 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 56 | 39 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Luleeb 3y 15 | M Simpson — 28% R18 W5 P8 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 79 | 46 (5) | 59 (4) | 64 (5) | 85 (1) | 81 (1) | 45 (4) | 31 (1) | 21 (2) | 21 (5) | 14 (6) | 29 | 47 | - | 62 | 65 | 54 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Taxi Joed 4y 15 | C Darch — 22% R393 W88 P221 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 29 (3) | 28 (3) | 26 (3) | 23 (2) | 27 (2) | 32 (2) | 33 (1) | 34 (1) | 24 (4) | 33 (1) | 34 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 58 | 46 | 3 | 11/2 | |
A commanding selection with R1 across virtually every meaningful dimension. Performance at ap65 is 5 points clear of the field — a significant gap at D-grade level. Early pace at EP 75 is the best, closing speed at CS 75 is the best, bend rating at bR79 is the best by 11 points, and pace consistency at pCon 97 is near-perfect — meaning she runs to this level every single time. The CD record of 5w/6p from 8 runs is a 62.5% win rate at Valley 260m — extraordinary and backed by suitability scores of sT47/sD62 that confirm genuine track aptitude. Trainer at 40% win rate is strong tier — the highest in the field by double. Drawn T5 which is the DOMINANT trap at Valley D4 260m (24.34% from 267 runs), so even the draw aligns perfectly. One trial in the last 5 grades is noted but doesn't materially affect the picture when every other metric stacks. This is as close to a banker as you'll find — multiple independent signals all pointing the same way.
DANGER: Front Runner profile is the right type for Valley 260m and trap suit 58 confirms good draw. But EP 68 and bR68 are both inferior to the pick's 75 and 79. Needs T5 to stumble.
OPPOSE: Closer at Valley 260m with track suitability of 6. The structural and suitability evidence both argue strongly against. Class drop from A5/A6 is the only positive but it can't overcome the pace profile.
UNLIKELY: Worst speed (sr47), weak suitability, and no dimension where she leads the field. CD 2w/8r shows some Valley ability but not against this quality.
UNLIKELY: CS 7 disguised as All-Rounder. Won't lead (EP 50 from T6) and can't close (CS 7). Stuck in mid-pack with no path to improvement. CD form exists but today's field is too strong.
T5 is the dominant trap at 24.34% from 267 runs — well clear of all others. Speed R1 wins 25.66% from 534 runs. Large dataset gives high confidence. D-grade tier with strong predictive power (31.1% base). The trap bias + dog profile alignment is exceptional here.
T1:14.91% T2:19.08% T3:17.18% T4:17.83% T5:24.34% T6:19.25%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.