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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Boherdota Angelb 2y 25 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 20 (4) | 17 (5) | 23 (3) | 14 (5) | 26 (1) | 17 (5) | 17 (4) | 27 (1) | 18 (3) | 14 (6) | 13 | 23 | 51 | 25 | 60 | 41 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Pandy Daffyd 3y 25 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 59 | 55 (2) | 24 (2) | 50 (4) | 17 (5) | 47 (4) | 41 (4) | 69 (1) | 55 (3) | 45 (5) | 50 (2) | 36 | 32 | 28 | 34 | 54 | 45 | 3 | 15/8F | |
| 3 | ▶ Tobergal Deniseb 3y 26 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 26 (1) | 22 (2) | 15 (5) | 16 (6) | 24 (2) | 23 (2) | 22 (2) | 20 (4) | 19 (4) | 25 (1) | 15 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 57 | 39 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Comer Ashb 2yN/R 4 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 19 (6) | 16 (5) | 23 (2) | 18 (4) | 25 (1) | 13 (5) | 20 (3) | 22 (4) | 20 (2) | 26 (2) | 29 | 40 | 37 | 40 | 53 | 45 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Comer Rangerb 2y 14 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 20 (2) | 19 (3) | 16 (5) | 21 (2) | 18 (2) | 11 (6) | 15 (6) | 14 (6) | 20 (2) | 14 (6) | 32 | 26 | 38 | 26 | 49 | 40 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Hawkfield Zippyb 2y 6 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 41 | 21 (2) | 19 (4) | 17 (3) | 11 (6) | 16 (5) | 13 (5) | 21 (3) | 14 (5) | 17 (4) | 21 (2) | 25 | 24 | 36 | 25 | 53 | 40 | 4 | 5/1 | |
The clear speed leader in this field at sr57 — four points ahead of the next best and seven ahead of the field median. Performance rating of 60 is also best-in-field, giving a double R1 stack that the condition data says wins at 26.72% for speed alone. Course and distance record of 2w/2p from 10 runs shows proven ability at Valley 260m with a 20% strike rate. Drawn T1 which gives the rail advantage through the single bend on this tight circuit. The one caveat is a T1 trial in recent grades which could slightly inflate the average performance, but speed ratings are less susceptible to trial contamination as they're measured against field-relative pace. Trainer win rate at 6% is low tier but at D6 level trainer influence is minimal — the dog's raw ability is the story here. At Valley 260m where speed is everything, the combination of fastest dog + inside rail + proven CD form makes this a confident selection.
DANGER: Double R2 on speed and performance with proven CD form (1w/2p/10r). The inverted composite model (R2 > R1) at this condition adds further intrigue. Primary threat if the pick stumbles.
OPPOSE: Closer at Valley 260m is a structural mismatch regardless of other factors. Worst speed in field (sr40), no CD form. The class drop from A6 won't compensate for a pace profile that simply cannot work at this distance.
PLACE PROSPECT: Best trap draw and best suitability but 0 wins from 10 CD runs says it all. Likely to place again but hard to see her converting for the win against faster dogs.
UNLIKELY: Lowest performance in field (ap49), below-average trap, and the speed gap to the leaders is too wide at a sprint where speed is decisive.
MINOR PLACE THREAT: All-Rounder profile is fine at 260m but EP 46 from T6 means she won't lead. Speed deficit to top two is 4-7 points. Could sneak into places if pace collapses ahead.
Speed R1 dominates at 26.72% from 116 runs — the strongest single factor. Composite model slightly inverted (R2 21.14% > R1 18.25%) suggesting D6 260m upsets are common. T4 is statistically the best trap (21.74% from 92 runs) but speed rating overrides trap draw at this ultra-short sprint.
T1:19.72% T2:13.92% T3:17.11% T4:21.74% T5:15.96% T6:18.99%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.