Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Dels Graceb 2y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 21 (5) | 26 (5) | 29 (3) | 24 (2) | 23 (2) | 23 (3) | 18 (2) | 24 (5) | 17 (3) | - | 40 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 58 | 48 | 3 | 11/8 | |
| 2 | ▶ Tiny Dancerb 4y 38 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 63 | 72 (1) | 57 (3) | 51 (3) | 50 (3) | 49 (5) | 59 (2) | 47 (3) | 27 (2) | 22 (1) | 22 (2) | 34 | 42 | 61 | 32 | 53 | 45 | 1 | 10/3 | |
| 3 | ▶ Mylerstown Sageb 3y 4 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 37 | 25 (4) | 24 (3) | 32 (1) | 25 (3) | 30 (1) | 21 (4) | 20 (5) | 13 (6) | 19 (6) | - | 6 | 48 | 34 | 51 | 59 | 45 | 2 | 12/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Tobergal Suzanneb 3y 23 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 17 (6) | 25 (6) | 24 (3) | 22 (4) | 30 (3) | 22 (1) | 22 (2) | 27 (4) | 16 (1) | - | 30 | 33 | 23 | 34 | 55 | 45 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Tagalong Buckod 3y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 25 | 20 (3) | 27 (1) | 20 (5) | 26 (3) | 10 (1) | 26 (6) | 9 (6) | 19 (2) | - | - | 36 | 23 | 5 | 24 | 54 | 43 | 5 | 14/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Riot Co Martind 2y 36 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 100 | 28 (2) | 18 (6) | 26 (5) | 34 (4) | 30 (1) | 24 (2) | 24 (3) | 18 (3) | - | - | 9 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 58 | 40 | 6 | 5/4F | |
The standout selection here with a compelling three-factor stack: best speed (sr58, 4 points clear), Front Runner pace profile (EP 64, CS 50), and best bend rating (bR63, 26 points ahead of next best). At Valley 260m this is the dream combination — fast break, rail-adjacent draw, dominant through the bend, and the trip ends before any fading begins. The class drop from A5/A6 to D5 is significant — class suitability at 61 is the highest in the field, confirming the model sees this as a comfortable grade. Course and distance form is limited (1w/1p from 4r) but a 25% strike rate from a small sample at a higher effective grade is encouraging. Trainer at 6% is low but irrelevant at D-grade level. Performance at ap53 is actually the lowest in the field but at 260m speed and pace profile completely override raw performance rating — this dog will lead from trap to line.
DANGER: Best CD record in field (4w/4p/9r = 44% win rate) and best suitability (48/51). The bend rating deficit (37 vs 63) is the key vulnerability — she needs T2 to have a slow break. Primary threat on track knowledge.
PLACE PROSPECT: Consistent placer (1w/5p/10r CD) with good trap suitability but the speed gap to T2 and low T1 win rate make a win unlikely. Will occupy a place position.
OPPOSE: Worst trap (13.69%), worst CD record (0w/10r), and joint-lowest speed (sr46). The data comprehensively argues against this runner at Valley D5 260m.
OPPOSE: Closer at Valley 260m is structurally unworkable. EP 24 guarantees a slow start with no time to recover. Good trap statistics are wasted on a pace profile that can't use them.
PLACE THREAT: Best trap (27.46%) + solid CD form (2w/5p/10r) + joint-best perf (ap59). But the 6-point speed deficit to a Front Runner pick limits the win case. Strong each-way candidate.
Speed R1 dominates at 30.67% from 375 runs — strongest single predictor. T6 is best trap at 27.46% (193r). Outside traps (T5/T6) are heavily favoured at D5 260m, unusual for a tight track. D-grade tier with strong predictive power.
T1:16.53% T2:21.4% T3:16.18% T4:13.69% T5:23.11% T6:27.46%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.