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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ashway Divab 2y 18 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 65 | 76 (2) | 53 (5) | 50 (5) | 78 (2) | 61 (5) | 82 (2) | 88 (1) | 70 (2) | 83 (1) | 75 (2) | 41 | 28 | 25 | 26 | 50 | 43 | 1 | 4/5F | |
| 2 | ▶ Crokers Topperd 4y 25 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 48 (5) | 55 (3) | 72 (1) | 72 (1) | 53 (4) | 39 (5) | 61 (2) | 68 (2) | 48 (5) | 55 (3) | 25 | 31 | 26 | 34 | 58 | 45 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Ashway Granited 4y 37 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 57 | 50 (4) | 44 (5) | 53 (4) | 62 (2) | 73 (1) | 49 (5) | 37 (5) | 74 (1) | 57 (2) | 60 (3) | 55 | 45 | 46 | 40 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 6/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Burgess Julieb 3yN/R 25 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 36 | 48 (4) | 56 (3) | 35 (6) | 45 (5) | 75 (1) | 58 (3) | 21 (2) | 51 (5) | 56 (3) | 70 (1) | 2 | 20 | - | 20 | 51 | 33 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hanover Tomd 4y 25 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 31 | 52 (5) | 58 (3) | 51 (4) | 48 (3) | 70 (1) | 48 (3) | 60 (2) | 57 (2) | 61 (5) | 51 (3) | 31 | 32 | 28 | 33 | 55 | 45 | 3 | 4/1 | |
The standout here is the convergence of structural and individual factors. T1 is the most DOMINANT trap at Valley 460m A5 (23.9% from 117 runs) and Ashway Diva brings the best bend rating in the field (65) to the inside rail where it matters most on Valley's tight bends. Her Fader pace profile (EP 58, CS 29) means she'll be prominent early — and at Valley 460m, front runners and dogs with early pace are heavily favoured because the tight turns don't allow passing lanes. Speed 57 is second-best in the field. Form shows a massive uptick: P70→P52→P31→P40→P32→P22 — that P70 last time at A6 for a win shows she's found form and the promotion to A5 is merited. Trainer Rawlings at 22% is solid. The Fader concern is real at 460m (more bends than 260m) but her class advantage (AvgP 50, 2nd best) and the inside rail position should help her sustain.
DANGER: Best speed (61) + Front Runner profile + DOMINANT T3 (20.5%/122r) + best suitability (mean 46, trap 55). The only thing keeping her behind the pick is flatter form (P48 latest vs Ashway Diva's P70) and the T1's superior bend rating for the rail.
DANGER: Best AvgP (55) + DOMINANT T5 (21.9%/123r) gives him a platform, but the field's weakest bend rating (31) is a real liability on Valley's tight circuit. Could win on class but the pace-setters' bend advantage makes him the second or third dog, not the first.
Best AvgP (58) but trapped in the DEAD T2 (12.3%/122r). The structural headwind is severe. Solid recent form (P72→P72 in earlier races) but the 460m tight-track dynamics and dead trap make him hard to pick confidently.
Can be confidently opposed. Closer from the DEAD T4 (11.7%/128r) with trap suit 2 and class suit 0. The structural mismatch is severe — Valley 460m doesn't allow Closers passing lanes through the tight bends, and this is the worst possible draw.
Very strong composite separation (R1 31.1% vs R3 13.2% = 17.9pp). T1 and T4 are polar opposites — 23.9% vs 11.7%. Front Runners win at premium on this tight 460m circuit. Speed rank separation: SR1 25.8%, SR2 26.2% — unusually, speed rank 2 matches rank 1, suggesting speed alone isn't decisive; bend and EP matter more.
T1:23.9%/117r DOMINANT T2:12.3%/122r DEAD T3:20.5%/122r DOMINANT T4:11.7%/128r DEAD T5:21.9%/123r DOMINANT T6:20.2%/94r
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ashway Diva | 58 | 29 | Fader |
2Crokers Topper | 50 | 45 | All-Rounder |
3Ashway Granite | 57 | 50 | Front Runner |
4Burgess Julie | 40 | 56 | Closer |
5Hanover Tom | 0 | 53 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.