Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ashway Charlied 5y 24 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 20 | 49 (4) | 50 (4) | 74 (1) | 68 (1) | 40 (5) | 31 (4) | 45 (3) | 46 (3) | 43 (4) | 21 (1) | 42 | 31 | 27 | 31 | 51 | 44 | 3 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Pandy Daffyd 3y 14 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 30 | 55 (2) | 24 (2) | 50 (4) | 17 (5) | 47 (4) | 41 (4) | 69 (1) | 55 (3) | 45 (5) | 50 (2) | 37 | 33 | 56 | 31 | 51 | 44 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Crokers Lolab 2y 16 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 53 | 18 (4) | 30 (1) | 19 (6) | 47 (3) | 38 (5) | 39 (5) | 52 (4) | 57 (2) | 27 (3) | 54 (4) | 40 | 33 | 39 | 31 | 42 | 39 | 2 | 4/7F | |
| 4 | ▶ Ashway Amberb 4y 38 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 78 | 24 (6) | 48 (3) | 40 (5) | 52 (3) | 40 (5) | 41 (5) | 45 (2) | 41 (6) | 69 (1) | 53 (3) | 25 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 46 | 35 | 5 | 10/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Confey Sileb 4y 17 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 64 | 55 (2) | 46 (2) | 50 (3) | 36 (6) | 39 (6) | 74 (1) | 59 (2) | 71 (1) | 50 (3) | 42 (5) | 21 | 30 | 18 | 30 | 46 | 37 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Ballyregan Niamhb 4yN/R 14 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 54 | 46 (5) | 75 (1) | 44 (5) | 60 (2) | 45 (4) | 77 (1) | 65 (1) | 56 (1) | 69 (2) | - | 38 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 51 | 42 | - | - | |
Closer (CS 100, EP 20, Bend 30, PC 89) from the DEAD T2 (13.9%/101r) — normally a double structural negative. But she has the field's best speed (58) and the strongest recent form by a clear margin: P61→P57→P55→P46→P49→P17. That P61 was a D6 260m win last time, but the A6 460m form before that (P57 for 2nd, P55 for 2nd) shows she's consistently competitive at this grade. AvgP 51 ties for field best. The key insight from the condition data: speed rank 2 wins at 25.6% — ABOVE speed rank 1's 21.2%. This unusual signal means the second-fastest dog often wins when the fastest overextends (i.e., the pace setter fades). T4 Ashway Amber (CS 0) is guaranteed to fade, creating the exact scenario where Closers benefit. Suitability mean 39 is the field's best (Cls 56 standout). Trainer Darch at 26% is the field's joint-best. Despite the dead trap and Closer profile, the unique race shape (guaranteed T4 fade) + best speed + best form + best suitability = convergence.
DANGER: A6 winner last time (P69) with the field's best balanced pace profile (All-Rounder, EP 50, CS 54) from a borderline-dominant T3. She'll sit in behind the pace and close when T4 fades. Form volatility is the risk — P27 and P20 show she can bomb.
DANGER: AvgP 51 (joint-best) with P68 and P70 form peaks showing A6 class. All-Rounder profile adequate for Valley 460m. But form volatility and weak suitability (26) keep her behind the pick on reliability.
Worst early pace metrics in the field (EP 25, Bend 20, Speed 35). At Valley 460m this means trailing through every tight bend with no passing lanes. Competitive AvgP (51) but the pace profile makes it structurally impossible to deploy.
The pace-setter who creates opportunities for everyone else. EP 100 + Bend 78 = she leads. CS 0 + PC 0 = she fades completely. At 460m Valley this is the dog that sets up the Closers and All-Rounders behind her. Cannot win.
Decent bend ability (64) for Valley's tight bends but lacks the speed, suitability, or form peak to threaten the principals. An honest mid-pack runner.
Strong composite separation (R1 30.0%) — the best-rated dog has a very strong win record at A6 460m. T2 dead at 13.9% but no truly dominant trap (borderline only). Speed rank 2 (25.6%) beats rank 1 (21.2%) — unusual, suggesting the second-fastest dog benefits when the fastest overextends.
T1:20.6%/92r T2:13.9%/101r DEAD T3:20.4%/93r T4:18.1%/105r T5:19.6%/97r T6:18.3%/60r
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ashway Charlie | 25 | 88 | Closer |
2Pandy Daffy | 20 | 100 | Closer |
3Crokers Lola | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
4Ashway Amber | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Confey Sile | 50 | 46 | All-Rounder |
6Ballyregan Niamh | 51 | 39 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.