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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Miss Ballb 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 10 (6) | 15 (4) | 19 (4) | 24 (3) | 19 (5) | 20 (4) | 17 (5) | 19 (3) | 18 (5) | 18 (5) | 32 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 3 | 2/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Kildallon Poppyb 4y 16 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 21 (3) | 27 (1) | 19 (3) | 21 (2) | 21 (3) | 12 (6) | 12 (5) | 9 (6) | 17 (6) | 16 (5) | 29 | 27 | 25 | 27 | 35 | 32 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Vixons Asland 2y 22 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 27 (1) | 25 (2) | 50 (6) | 48 (6) | 24 (3) | 23 (3) | 22 (3) | 23 (3) | 24 (3) | 15 (6) | 11 | - | - | - | 34 | 24 | 6 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Pure Paorab 3y 23 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 11 (6) | 14 (6) | 20 (3) | 18 (4) | 26 (1) | 14 (6) | 12 (6) | 15 (5) | 22 (3) | 16 (4) | 21 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 37 | 31 | 2 | 13/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Comer Rangerb 2y 14 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 20 (2) | 19 (3) | 16 (5) | 21 (2) | 18 (2) | 11 (6) | 15 (6) | 14 (6) | 20 (2) | 15 (5) | 30 | 24 | 34 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 5 | 8/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Hawkfield Zippyb 2y 6 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 21 (2) | 19 (4) | 17 (3) | 11 (6) | 16 (5) | 21 (3) | 21 (3) | 14 (5) | 17 (4) | 21 (2) | 24 | 24 | 35 | 25 | 41 | 33 | 1 | 7/1 | |
The field's best performer — AvgP 41 is 8 points above the field average of ~33, clearing the class override threshold. Form P49→P50→P34→P39→P48→P48 is the most consistent in the race — five of six runs between P34 and P50, with P49 and P50 being the most recent. She's a confirmed Fader (PP Fader) but at 260m, Faders hold because the trip is too short for the fade to kick in. Speed 51 is the field's third-best. T6 is neutral at 17.6%/85r. Suitability mean 27 is middling. Trainer Jeffery at 20% is the field's joint-best. In a LOW SEPARATION race (R1 18.7% vs R3 18.0% = 0.7pp gap) where ratings are essentially noise, the tiebreaker has to be form reliability. Hawkfield Zippy is the most consistent dog in this field — her P49→P50 is head and shoulders above everyone else's recent form. Nobody else has consecutive 49+ performances. The Fader profile holds at 260m and her class edge (AvgP 41, 8 above avg) gives her the best chance of converting.
DANGER: Field's best speed (57) at a distance where SR1 wins 27.1% — the only reliable signal in a LOW SEPARATION race. But AvgP 22 and terrible recent form (P17 last time) create real doubt. Speed alone might carry her.
DANGER: Second-best speed (56) + borderline-dominant T4 (22.7%/97r) + D6 260m win 11 days ago. In a LOW SEPARATION race, this convergence of speed + trap + recent winning form at these conditions is enough for a danger tag.
Second-best AvgP (35) but steep form decline (P61 peak to P16→P17 recently) from the near-dead T2. The trajectory is going the wrong way at the wrong time.
Zero Valley suitability (mean 3) + worst speed (41) = structurally eliminated despite moderate AvgP. No venue experience at all. Would need everything to align in her favour.
Cannot be supported. Speed 40, poor form (P9, P17 in recent runs), near-dead trap. Making up the numbers.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins 18.7% vs R3 at 18.0% — just 0.7pp gap, the lowest separation on the entire card. R2 actually beats R1 (21.6% vs 18.7%). At D6 260m, ratings are essentially noise — the model can't separate these dogs. Trap bias is moderate (T4 22.7%, T1 21.3%) but samples are small. Speed rank 1 wins 27.1% — speed is the only reliable predictor.
T1:21.3%/75r T2:14.1%/85r T3:17.3%/81r T4:22.7%/97r T5:15.0%/100r T6:17.6%/85r
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.