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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Grovenor Annab 2y 18 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 57 | 55 (4) | 72 (2) | 62 (3) | 53 (5) | 53 (4) | 68 (3) | 77 (3) | 78 (2) | 69 (3) | 76 (2) | 25 | 40 | 20 | 45 | 68 | 52 | 2 | 8/13F | |
| 3 | ▶ Glory Goodtimed 3y 15 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 47 | 52 (5) | 65 (2) | 63 (4) | 62 (4) | 53 (5) | 82 (1) | 73 (2) | 70 (2) | 69 (3) | 65 (2) | 56 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 61 | 55 | 4 | 8/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Beaconsfield Boyd 4y 43 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 49 | 61 (5) | 92 (4) | 57 (1) | 65 (4) | 80 (4) | 69 (1) | 72 (3) | 67 (3) | 48 (4) | - | 2 | 38 | 17 | 38 | 70 | 48 | 3 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Irishd 4y 17 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 71 | 61 (5) | 73 (2) | 74 (3) | 19 (2) | 54 (4) | 77 (2) | 89 (1) | 85 (1) | 70 (2) | 82 (1) | 51 | 44 | 62 | 47 | 66 | 58 | 1 | 7/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Affleck Nashwand 2y 34 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 36 | 33 (2) | 24 (6) | 29 (4) | 27 (5) | 39 (1) | 23 (5) | 30 (3) | 30 (3) | 50 (5) | 42 (6) | 40 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 33 | 34 | 5 | 25/1 | |
The field's standout pace dog on Valley's tight circuit — Fader (EP 63, Bend 71, Spd 51, PC 87) with a bend rating 14 points clear of the field's next best (57). On Valley 460m where front runners and dogs with early pace are heavily favoured because the tight bends don't allow passing lanes, that Bend 71 advantage compounds through every turn. EP 63 is the field's best early pace. AvgP 66 is third in the field. Form P70→P82→P75→P30→P75→P51 shows strong A3 ability with three 70+ performances in the last six. The P30 was a bad race but the trajectory around it (P75→P30→P75) shows she bounced back. Suitability mean 51 is the field's best (Trp 51, Cls 62, Dst 47) — confirmed Valley T5 form at this grade. Trainer Davy at 24%. The Fader concern (CS 27) at 460m is real — she weakens late — but from T5 on Valley's tight bends, the bend advantage should protect her position through the turns even as she fades. In a LOW SEPARATION race where ratings can't separate dogs, this pace profile on this track is the most reliable predictor.
DANGER: Best speed (61) + best AvgP (68) + outstanding form (P94, P86, P86) make her the class of the field on paper. But in a LOW SEPARATION race on Valley's tight circuit, T5's bend advantage (71 vs 57) through the tight turns is the more reliable predictor. She'll be close.
DANGER: Second-best AvgP (70) with a P92 ceiling, showing genuine A3 class. But trap suit 2 and the weakest trap position in the field (16.1%) work against him. His class will keep him in contention but the structural position is poor.
Best trap suitability (56) and good consistency (PC 89) but speed 35 is 26 behind the field leader. On Valley 460m that speed deficit is probably unbridgeable. Place contender on suitability but unlikely to win.
Closer with the field's worst EP (28), worst bend (36), and weakest AvgP (33). At Valley 460m this is a structural mismatch — tight bends, no passing lanes, last through the first bend. Can be opposed.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins 21.9% vs R3 at 17.9% — just 3.9pp gap. Ratings offer minimal predictive value at A3. Flat trap bias means no structural draw advantage. Pivot to pace profile + bend ability + form on Valley's tight circuit.
T1:18.9%/127r (VACANT) T2:16.5%/170r T3:18.5%/216r T4:16.1%/180r T5:18.9%/159r T6:19.2%/193r
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Grovenor Anna | 52 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Glory Goodtime | 49 | 43 | All-Rounder |
4Beaconsfield Boy | 50 | 53 | All-Rounder |
5Hawkfield Irish | 63 | 27 | Fader |
6Affleck Nashwan | 28 | 62 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.