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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tiny Dancerb 4y 36 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 39 | 72 (1) | 57 (3) | 51 (3) | 50 (3) | 49 (5) | 59 (2) | 47 (3) | 27 (2) | 22 (1) | 22 (2) | 29 | 29 | 65 | 35 | 40 | 36 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Comer Sueb 2y 14 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 25 (3) | 29 (2) | 24 (4) | 20 (5) | 27 (3) | 25 (4) | 22 (5) | 21 (3) | 21 (5) | 27 (3) | 57 | 36 | 48 | 47 | 31 | 39 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Hawkfield Sunamib 2y 7 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 60 | 33 (1) | 29 (2) | 22 (5) | 31 (1) | 20 (5) | 24 (2) | 27 (2) | 19 (5) | 23 (4) | 24 (2) | 32 | 33 | 50 | 37 | 24 | 28 | 4 | 10/3 | |
| 4 | ▶ Gavins Caked 3y 27 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 55 | 42 (5) | 71 (1) | 33 (3) | 34 (2) | 73 (1) | 62 (2) | 71 (1) | 33 (1) | 25 (2) | 44 (5) | 25 | 44 | - | 32 | 52 | 43 | 1 | 15/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Vanessas Redroseb 3y 6 | P T Maynard — 22% R212 W46 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 46 | 26 (5) | 30 (2) | 33 (1) | 30 (1) | 24 (3) | 17 (5) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 31 (1) | 18 (6) | 25 | 10 | - | 15 | 33 | 26 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Rollover Lucyb 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 27 (2) | 23 (2) | 26 (2) | 20 (3) | 26 (1) | 20 (5) | 13 (5) | 23 (3) | 24 (2) | 21 (4) | 28 | 20 | 34 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 6 | 6/1 | |
The field's outstanding performer — AvgP 52 is 20 points above the field average of ~32. This is the most decisive class override on the entire Valley card. Form P61→P28→P44→P50→P74→P60 includes three 50+ performances in the last four, with a P74 peak and a P61 last time at A5 460m for 2nd — a grade and distance above this race. She's a Closer (CS 73, EP 52, Bend 55) which is normally fatal at 260m Valley, but the class gap is so vast (20 points) that it overwhelms the pace profile concern. At D5 level, a dog with P61, P50, P44 in recent form is operating in a different league — the other dogs are running P20-P30. Her EP 52 means she's not slow out — she breaks at mid-pack speed and then her class carries her past dogs that are simply not in her league. Trainer Darch at 26% is the field's best. T4 is DEAD at 14.0%/250r, which is a genuine structural headwind — but the class override at 20 points is the largest on this card and decisively outweighs it.
DANGER: Won last time at D5 260m + best suitability (mean 40, Cls 65) + AvgP 40. Closer profile is the concern at 260m but her EP 45 and class-specific form prove she can do it. The consistent 30-47 form range means she's always competitive.
DANGER: DOMINANT T2 (22.0%/236r) + best trap suit (57) + won last time = strong structural candidate. The missing pace data is the gap — but when the trap dominance + individual trap suitability align this strongly, it's a reliable signal.
Explosive early pace (EP 63, Bend 60) but PC 0 means it's a coin flip whether she reproduces it. Declining form (P28→P20→P17→P16) and neutral trap. On her day she could blitz this but you can't trust the day.
DOMINANT T5 (22.6%/234r) but catastrophically low suitability (mean 12, Cls 0) = no individual confirmation of D5 Valley form. Consistent pace (PC 92) but AvgP 33 and unproven conditions make her a long shot despite the draw.
DOMINANT T6 wasted on the field's weakest runner. Speed 40, AvgP 22, no pace data — a structural goldmine occupied by a dog that can't mine it.
Same conditions as R1/R5. Three dominant traps. T4 dead. But T4 houses the field's best performer by 20 points — a massive class override scenario. Speed rank 1 wins 31.2%.
T1:16.7%/257r T2:22.0%/236r DOMINANT T3:16.5%/249r T4:14.0%/250r DEAD T5:22.6%/234r DOMINANT T6:26.4%/201r DOMINANT
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.