| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Makeit Lorraineb 3y 25 | F J Gray — 20% R351 W70 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 32 | 48 (4) | 47 (5) | 71 (2) | 31 (5) | 38 (2) | 45 (1) | 42 (1) | 28 (5) | 35 (2) | 33 (4) | 60 | 44 | 60 | 50 | 41 | 45 | 3 | 7/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ In My Lifeb 2y 9 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 58 | 40 (6) | 68 (2) | 57 (3) | 73 (2) | 70 (3) | 69 (2) | 68 (2) | 81 (1) | 56 (3) | 71 (2) | 41 | 38 | 15 | 40 | 67 | 57 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Fabulous Rakiyab 2y 37 | L G Tuffin — 25% R275 W69 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 58 | 68 (5) | 75 (3) | 88 (2) | 67 (3) | 56 (5) | 80 (1) | 61 (2) | 56 (4) | 65 (4) | 54 (5) | 47 | 44 | - | 40 | 64 | 57 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Prodigyd 3y 7 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 54 | 60 (2) | 69 (2) | 52 (3) | 49 (5) | 56 (3) | 57 (3) | 51 (4) | 63 (4) | 65 (3) | 82 (1) | 41 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 67 | 58 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Bossy Bulletb 3y 15 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 46 (4) | 53 (2) | 55 (4) | 64 (2) | 60 (3) | 65 (3) | 32 (4) | 64 (2) | 44 (3) | 56 (4) | 57 | 41 | 30 | 51 | 54 | 52 | 5 | 2/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ All About Rosieb 4yN/R 15 | S J Rayner — 18% R179 W33 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 24 | 83 (1) | 69 (2) | 81 (6) | 61 (1) | 60 (3) | 30 (2) | 68 (6) | 74 (3) | 57 (2) | - | 59 | 51 | 51 | 44 | 59 | 56 | - | - | |
The class of the field with the most consistent elite-level form on the card. P67 is joint-best and form reads 72→59→71→56→78 — the 78 last out is exceptional A3 form, and four of five runs at 56+ shows a dog operating at a level well above this field's average. The consistency of hitting 56+ every run is remarkable. Pure Closer profile (EP0/CS100) means she'll be dead last at the first bend — but at 500m Towcester, the track profile notes closers can recover, especially when the pace up front is set by Faders who'll weaken. Speed 51 is mid-pack but irrelevant for a Closer — she doesn't need early speed, she needs late speed, and CS100 gives her the maximum possible. Bend 58 is the joint-best in the field, which helps through the closing bends when she makes her move. T2 at 19.0% from 174 runs is a neutral structural position — not dominant but not a headwind either. Trainer M P Brown at 24% is solid. Suitability is moderate: track 38, distance 40, trap 41, class 15 — the class suit of 15 is notable and might suggest she's stepped up, but the form at 56-78 says she can handle it. In a LOW SEPARATION race where ratings barely differentiate, the 78 last out and consistent 56+ form are the strongest signals.
DANGER: The structural case (T1 dominant 28.6% + trap suit 60 + Gray 32% + speed 62) is powerful enough to keep her as danger despite P41. The data says T1 wins nearly 30% at these conditions regardless of who's in the trap. But the 28 last out and clear class deficit to the principals make a win unlikely.
DANGER: P64 + All-Rounder profile + L G Tuffin 28% + good draw = the safest contender if things don't go to plan for the Closers. Her 77 peak proves she can beat anyone on her day. The 49 dip is the risk.
DANGER: 80 last out (card-high) + CS95 + best suit mean + good T6 position = a genuine closer who could time her run perfectly. But speed 35 and bend 24 mean she concedes more early ground than In My Life (speed 51, bend 58), making the closing challenge harder despite similar CS. The 30 blip proves she can have off-days.
Joint-best P (67) and consistently strong form, but declining trajectory (74→59) and Fader profile at 500m with elite Closers behind = likely to lead before being passed. Will make the running but finishing position depends on how fast the Closers engage.
Collapsed form (65→19), extreme Fader, dead trap. Will lead early but nothing else. The pace-setter that others will pick off.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 22.6% vs R3 18.1% = 4.5pp gap. At A3 grade, the model's own rankings provide minimal predictive advantage. T1 is massively dominant at 28.6% but the dog in T1 (Makeit Lorraine, P41) is the weakest in the field by far. The structural advantage is wasted on a below-par runner. When T1 dominant but the T1 dog is weakest, form and class become the primary factors.
T1:28.6%(168) T2:19.0%(174) T3:20.0%(195) T4:18.3%(197) T5:12.7%(157) T6:21.1%(114)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Makeit Lorraine | 48 | 66 | Closer |
2In My Life | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Fabulous Rakiya | 52 | 34 | All-Rounder |
4Salacres Prodigy | 57 | 25 | Fader |
5Bossy Bullet | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6All About Rosie | 36 | 95 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.