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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Unlikely Doohomad 4y 23 | S Gaughan — 15% R33 W5 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 34 | 58 (4) | 53 (5) | 82 (2) | 81 (2) | 64 (2) | 53 (3) | 61 (2) | 79 (4) | 46 (5) | 73 (1) | 44 | 55 | 32 | 38 | 66 | 59 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Raparee Yuliab 2y 19 | D D Porter — 17% R527 W90 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 65 | 66 (3) | 81 (2) | 81 (1) | 71 (3) | 68 (2) | 64 (2) | 63 (3) | 83 (1) | 81 (1) | 77 (1) | 41 | 48 | 41 | 48 | 56 | 52 | 4 | 15/8 | |
| 3 | ▶ Eagles Restb 4y 16 | P J Dolby — 13% R52 W7 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 52 (4) | 61 (2) | 72 (5) | 60 (1) | 57 (2) | 60 (4) | 57 (3) | 55 (2) | 30 (5) | - | 46 | 64 | 43 | 67 | 46 | 51 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Fabulous Arizonab 2y 38 | L G Tuffin — 26% R278 W71 P147 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 52 | 67 (4) | 73 (3) | 72 (1) | 50 (3) | 67 (1) | 51 (3) | 45 (4) | 32 (6) | 66 (1) | 46 (2) | 32 | 47 | - | 30 | 61 | 52 | 2 | 16/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Clona Bingod 3y 17 | M P Brown — 21% R427 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 44 | 79 (1) | 53 (6) | 59 (2) | 58 (5) | 52 (5) | 29 (6) | 76 (1) | 66 (5) | 57 (3) | 68 (3) | 52 | 58 | 30 | 48 | 66 | 61 | 3 | 4/5F | |
The form is exceptional and the structural position is strong. P66 is the joint-best in the field, and form reads 81→65→53→61→79 — that 81 and 79 are elite A3-level performances, and even the 53 low represents competitive A4 form. The consistency of hitting 53+ in every run is remarkable for this grade. Pure Closer profile (EP0/CS93) means she'll be last at the first bend, guaranteed, but at Towcester 500m the T1 rail position gives her the shortest closing line through bends 3 and 4. The rail advantage that usually benefits front runners actually helps Closers too — she saves ground on every bend while others on the outside take wider lines. Track suit 55 is strong, confirming deep Towcester pedigree. Trap suit 44 from T1 is decent. Speed 51 is mid-pack. Trainer S Gaughan at 18% is moderate. The case for Doohoma over Fabulous Arizona (the T4 rival) comes down to form quality: 81→65→53→61→79 with a 79 last out vs 67→73→73→51→67. Doohoma's ceiling is higher (81 vs 73), her latest run is better (79 vs 67), and her closing profile means she'll be making ground when the Faders weaken.
DANGER: DOMINANT trap (23.6%) + elite trainer Tuffin (26.5% at conditions) + consistent 51-73 form (two 73 peaks) = the strongest structural case in the race. But P61 vs P66 and 67 last out vs 79 last out gives Unlikely Doohoma the edge on raw form. If the T4 geometry + Tuffin placement outweighs the 5-point P gap, Arizona wins.
Will lead through bend 1 and 2 but CS0 at 500m means she'll be caught. Pace-setter role only. The 72 peak was 3 runs ago and the declining trend doesn't support a form reversal.
Outstanding venue suitability (track 64, distance 67) completely negated by collapsed form (16→16→30→33). Would need 30+ point form reversal to feature. The track knowledge is irrelevant when the dog can't run.
Joint-best P (66) and best speed (59) are meaningless when the dog ran 22 last out after a 75 peak. That's a 53-point crash, not a form dip. Until recovery is shown, this is unbackable regardless of the numbers.
Dual dominant traps: T4 at 23.6% and T1 at 22.8%. This race pits the two structural advantages against each other — T1 Unlikely Doohoma (P66, Closer) vs T4 Fabulous Arizona (P61, All-Rounder, Tuffin 28%). SpeedRank R1 at 22.3% confirms speed matters. Trainer L G Tuffin at 26.5%(34) is the elite handler.
T1:22.8%(233) T2:19.4%(216) T3:18.4%(207) T4:23.6%(242) T5:15.6%(243) T6:16.4%(146)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Unlikely Doohoma | 0 | 93 | Closer |
2Raparee Yulia | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Eagles Rest | 100 | 100 | All-Rounder |
4Fabulous Arizona | 0 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Clona Bingo | 50 | 0 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.