| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Frankieb 3y 8 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 56 | 68 (1) | 56 (2) | 46 (4) | 47 (3) | 43 (5) | 49 (5) | 49 (5) | 66 (2) | 52 (4) | 71 (1) | 44 | 37 | 7 | 35 | 58 | 51 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Flickering Belleb 2y 10 | P V Swadden — 21% R104 W22 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 35 | 57 (2) | 49 (4) | 45 (4) | 44 (5) | 43 (4) | 49 (5) | 62 (2) | 42 (5) | 71 (1) | 57 (3) | 21 | 40 | 21 | 40 | 56 | 48 | 2 | 8/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Mischievouskellyb 5yN/R 44 | R E Allder — 6% R16 W1 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 54 | 59 (2) | 56 (3) | 37 (2) | 37 (1) | 30 (4) | 22 (5) | 37 (1) | 28 (3) | 50 (6) | 68 (2) | 46 | 42 | 27 | 33 | 42 | 41 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Adamant Finnd 1y 8 | P V Swadden — 21% R104 W22 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 44 | 63 (4) | 86 (1) | 62 (4) | 81 (1) | 58 (4) | 66 (3) | 79 (1) | 54 (4) | 59 (3) | 71 (1) | 53 | 38 | - | 42 | 55 | 51 | 4 | 11/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Fabulous Aurorab 4y 35 | L G Tuffin — 25% R276 W70 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 52 | 63 (3) | 73 (1) | 59 (3) | 27 (3) | 29 (2) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 22 (5) | 55 (4) | 55 (4) | 13 | 30 | 28 | 32 | 45 | 38 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dumbledored 4y 35 | P J Dolby — 13% R52 W7 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 34 (6) | 36 (6) | 47 (6) | 71 (1) | 54 (4) | 43 (5) | 52 (4) | 61 (2) | 71 (1) | 54 (4) | 55 | 43 | 6 | 42 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 5/1 | |
The pick despite the Fader profile, because the rail at Towcester 500m mitigates the closing speed issue more than at any other UK track. P58 is the field's best, and form reads 53→71→56→64→45 — that 71 and 64 show genuine A3-level capability, and even the 45 latest (her worst recent) would be competitive in this declining field. The Fader profile (EP59/CS6) means she'll lead through the first bend from the rail — and at Towcester 500m, that rail advantage compounds through every subsequent bend. The T1 position at 22.8% from 233 runs confirms structural support. Speed 55 and bend 56 are solid, and the bend rating is important because it determines how much she gains at the critical first turn. Suitability is good: track 37, distance 35, trap 44. Trainer P H Harnden at 24% is solid. The concern is clear: CS6 is the lowest closing speed in the field, and the 45 last out suggests possible declining form. But in a field where every other dog is also declining (several to 21-32 range), she's still the class runner.
DANGER: Second-best P (56), strong consistent form (42-71), and CS78 Closer profile timed perfectly for a race with Faders leading. If Salacres Frankie fades sufficiently, Flickering Belle is the most likely beneficiary. Weakest speed/bend limit her to danger rather than pick.
Steep declining form (59→30) and weak trainer (8%). The Fader profile adds risk at 500m. The numbers from 3-4 runs ago are irrelevant when the trajectory is this clear.
Dominant trap wasted on a dog in freefall. 71→32 over 4 runs is not a dip — it's a collapse. Can't be trusted regardless of the structural advantages.
Best speed and best trainer but form collapsed from 73 to 27-31 range. Would need dramatic reversal from the worst draw in the race. The talent is there but the current output isn't.
P56 and 71 peak prove the talent, but 21→21 last two runs prove the dog isn't right. Two consecutive collapses from any cause make this unbackable. Needs to show recovery form before being considered.
T4 and T1 are both strong draws at 23.6% and 22.8% respectively. T5 is the weakest position. Composite rank shows an unusual pattern: R1 23.6%, R3 18.4%, R2 just 14.9% — the second-ranked dog underperforms expectation. SpeedRank R1 at 22.3% and R2 at 20.8% show speed matters. Trainer L G Tuffin at 26.5%(34) is the standout handler.
T1:22.8%(233) T2:19.4%(216) T3:18.4%(207) T4:23.6%(242) T5:15.6%(243) T6:16.4%(146)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salacres Frankie | 59 | 6 | Fader |
2Flickering Belle | 39 | 78 | Closer |
3Mischievouskelly | 57 | 39 | Fader |
4Adamant Finn | 43 | 56 | Closer |
5Fabulous Aurora | 53 | 49 | All-Rounder |
6Dumbledore | 47 | 51 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.