| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hitthelids Mateod 2y 37 | N J Deas — 17% R448 W77 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 28 (5) | 58 (1) | 30 (5) | 48 (3) | 55 (5) | 36 (1) | 25 (4) | 25 (5) | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 40 | 35 | 20 | 35 | 27 | 30 | 4 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Melbury Meteord 2y 16 | A Welch — 14% R315 W44 P155 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 21 (5) | 32 (2) | 33 (2) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 30 (1) | 26 (2) | 31 (3) | 35 (2) | - | 44 | 34 | 31 | 34 | 28 | 31 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Greencroft Oscard 4y 26 | S J Rayner — 19% R175 W33 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 20 (5) | 25 (5) | 32 (1) | 30 (2) | 25 (3) | 22 (5) | 31 (1) | 29 (2) | 22 (5) | 24 (4) | 30 | 26 | 26 | 42 | 27 | 29 | 5 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Daleroad Storyd 3y 14 | D Jeans — 13% R244 W31 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 23 (5) | 31 (3) | 36 (1) | 23 (5) | 29 (3) | 30 (2) | 41 (1) | 30 (3) | 78 (2) | 36 (3) | 67 | 32 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 34 | 1 | 11/10F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Oned 2y 6 | P A Braithwaite — 17% R53 W9 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 26 (2) | 25 (3) | 20 (4) | 27 (2) | 28 (2) | 22 (4) | 20 (6) | 24 (4) | 19 (5) | 26 (3) | 15 | 44 | 12 | 44 | 26 | 29 | 2 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Dublin Jimmyd 4y 16 | D D Porter — 17% R526 W92 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 32 (2) | 27 (5) | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 34 (3) | 37 (1) | 28 (4) | 28 (4) | 35 (1) | 32 (1) | 28 | 18 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 8/1 | - | |
The pick in a LOW SEPARATION race based on three converging factors that separate him from a tightly-bunched field. First, speed 53 is the field's best by 2 points — at 270m sprint, the fastest dog has a significant advantage and 2 points is a meaningful gap. Second, trap suitability of 67 is the highest in the race by a wide margin (next best is Melbury Meteor's 44) — this dog has individually proven, repeatedly, that he performs from T4 at Towcester 270m. That kind of individual trap history is the strongest form of confirmation that the structural position works for this specific dog. Third, P29 is the joint-best in the field alongside Melbury Meteor, but Daleroad Story's form (23→31→36→23→29) shows a higher ceiling at 36 and more recent stability at 23-29. T4 at 20.5% from 400 runs is a neutral-to-good position in the flat landscape. Trainer D Jeans at 10% is the significant weakness — the weakest handler in the field. But in a LOW SEPARATION race where ratings don't differentiate, the speed and trap suit advantages are more meaningful than the trainer deficit.
DANGER: Best recent form (36 last out) and second-best speed (51) make him the most in-form runner. But DEAD trap (13.6%) + trap suit 15 = structural double negative. Would need P 6+ above field average to trigger a class override — P26 doesn't qualify. The form is there but the draw is against him.
Best structural draw (T1 at 23.0%) but slowest speed in the field (47). At 270m sprint, the pace deficit overrides the positional advantage. Place frame at best.
Joint-best P (28) and good structural draw, but form declining to 20 last out. Would need reversal of the declining trend to feature. The 34 peak was 4 runs ago.
Best trainer signal (Rayner 22%) and good distance suit (42), but P27 and speed 47 are not competitive in a field where the pick has speed 53. Trainer can position well but can't manufacture speed.
Consistent 24-31 form but no upside beyond that level. DEAD trap (13.8%) and weakest suit in the field make this a clear oppose. Reliable but limited.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 22.4% vs R3 18.1% = 4.3pp gap. Ratings barely differentiate dogs at D3 level. With flat T1-T4 trap bias, the primary signals shift to speed, suitability, and recent form. T5 and T6 both DEAD (~13.6%). Trainer J M Liles at 23.9%(67) is the standout handler at D3 but no Liles runner today. S J Rayner at 24.1%(29) is the next best.
T1:23.0%(296) T2:22.8%(394) T3:21.5%(353) T4:20.5%(400) T5:13.6%(308) T6:13.8%(218)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 270m | 450m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hitthelids Mateo | — | 0.612 | — | 0.606 |
| 2 | Melbury Meteor | — | 0.611 | — | — |
| 3 | Greencroft Oscar | — | 0.615 | — | — |
| 4 | Daleroad Story | 0.607 | 0.608 | 0.612 | — |
| 5 | Swift One | — | 0.618 | — | — |
| 6 | Dublin Jimmy | — | 0.605 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.