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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Trumpers Derekd 2y 9 | N J Deas — 17% R447 W76 P245 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 58 | 56 (4) | 62 (2) | 66 (2) | 58 (3) | 53 (5) | 77 (1) | 77 (1) | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 60 (2) | 46 | 37 | 48 | 42 | 58 | 52 | 1 | 2/1F | |
| 2 | ▶ Romeo Echod 2y 17 | R J Turney — 11% R18 W2 P14 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 64 (4) | 70 (2) | 60 (3) | 52 (3) | 45 (6) | 69 (2) | 75 (1) | 48 (5) | 50 (5) | 55 (4) | 58 | 39 | 14 | 28 | 57 | 52 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Dealmakerd 5y 16 | S J Rayner — 18% R179 W33 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 54 | 54 (3) | 37 (6) | 61 (3) | 70 (1) | 66 (2) | 71 (1) | 54 (3) | 46 (3) | 38 (6) | 61 (2) | 48 | 48 | 38 | 39 | 51 | 49 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ardera Villed 2y 7 | M P Brown — 21% R425 W89 P244 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 31 | 58 (3) | 47 (5) | 72 (2) | 76 (1) | 65 (2) | 72 (1) | 41 (6) | 56 (3) | - | - | 7 | 20 | - | 11 | 48 | 36 | 6 | 5/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Fabulous Hanab 2y 42 | L G Tuffin — 25% R275 W69 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 47 | 76 (6) | 74 (1) | 55 (4) | 63 (3) | 64 (4) | 61 (3) | 51 (3) | 73 (5) | 83 (1) | - | 21 | 42 | 25 | 20 | 70 | 55 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Chelms Jacobd 4y 18 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 48 | 72 (1) | 42 (6) | 54 (2) | 63 (2) | 76 (1) | 64 (3) | 52 (5) | 53 (3) | 72 (1) | 58 (2) | 33 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 60 | 50 | 4 | 9/2 | |
The structural case is overwhelming. T1 wins 32.0% from 219 runs at Towcester 500m A5 — that's 92% above expected rate and backed by a robust sample. But this isn't just about the trap: Trumpers Derek brings consistently strong form to the dominant draw. Form reads 68→60→58→56→59 — five consecutive 56+ performances with remarkable consistency (pace scores of 70-76 across those runs). That kind of reliability at A5 level is rare. P58 is the second-highest in the field, and All-Rounder profile (EP52/CS36) means he'll position himself prominently through the first bend without burning out like a Fader would. Speed 56 and bend 58 are both strong for A5, particularly the bend rating which determines first-bend positioning at Towcester 500m. Suitability confirms the fit: track 37, distance 42, trap 46, class 48 — the trap suit of 46 means his individual T1 history aligns with the aggregate dominance. Trainer N J Deas at 16% is below average but the structural and form convergence is so strong that trainer adds marginal impact.
DANGER: Surging form (72 last out) from the second-best structural position (T2 at 21.9%). If the 72 was the real dog rather than a one-off, this is the biggest threat to the pick. The 18/21 blips create uncertainty about reliability.
DANGER: P70 + Tuffin 46.1% at conditions = the most powerful individual signals in this field. But pure Closer from T5 soft dead at Towcester 500m where geometry favours the rail = severe structural mismatch. On her day (the 84, 92 version), she wins from any trap. On a moderate day (the 53 version), she doesn't close the gap. Too erratic to take over the structural certainty of T1.
Best venue credentials but declining form. The 68 peak was two runs ago and the downward trajectory has continued. Place prospect rather than winner.
Collapsing form (13 last, 15 before that), worst suitability, and pure Closer from a mid-draw with no T4 history. Nothing in the data supports involvement.
Excellent consistent form but DEAD trap (12.4%). The mismatch between individual quality (P60, 83 consistency) and structural position (worst in the race) means he'll run well but likely find one or two on the rail too far ahead to catch.
T1 at 32% from 219 runs is one of the strongest trap signals in UK racing. This directly matches the Towcester 500m track profile: T1 wins at roughly double expected rate. The rail saves ground cumulatively through 4 bends. Trainer L G Tuffin at 46.1%(26) is the elite handler at these conditions — and trains Fabulous Hana from T5 (15%). That trainer signal is powerful but fighting the worst structural position.
T1:32.0%(219) T2:21.9%(265) T3:17.6%(284) T4:17.6%(267) T5:15.0%(227) T6:12.4%(185)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Trumpers Derek | 52 | 36 | All-Rounder |
2Romeo Echo | 51 | 38 | All-Rounder |
3Dealmaker | 54 | 33 | All-Rounder |
4Ardera Ville | 28 | 100 | Closer |
5Fabulous Hana | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Chelms Jacob | 49 | 62 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.