| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Havana Belleb 2y 5 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 48 | 40 (5) | 46 (4) | 37 (4) | 38 (3) | 35 (6) | 55 (2) | 47 (3) | 41 (4) | 37 (5) | 67 (1) | 18 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 43 | 46 | 1 | 7/4JF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Salems Bansheeb 1y 15 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 63 | 21 (4) | 27 (2) | 23 (4) | 48 (3) | 26 (2) | 21 (5) | 34 (6) | 19 (6) | 45 (4) | 39 (4) | 15 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 7/4JF | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Buenos Diasb 3y 15 | D F Carter — 13% R345 W45 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 48 | 41 (5) | 35 (5) | 46 (4) | 19 (4) | 17 (5) | 54 (2) | 64 (1) | 28 (2) | 45 (2) | 31 (1) | 33 | 33 | 34 | 27 | 46 | 40 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballintine Tend 2y 5 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 48 | 40 (3) | 21 (4) | 44 (4) | 47 (3) | 54 (2) | 54 (2) | 40 (3) | 49 (2) | 31 (5) | 43 (5) | 31 | 33 | 18 | 19 | 45 | 45 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ardnasool Hulkd 4y 16 | P Clarke — 14% R438 W63 P229 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 52 | 46 (3) | 23 (3) | 29 (6) | 36 (3) | 63 (1) | 43 (4) | 20 (5) | 30 (1) | 20 (5) | 45 (3) | 32 | 30 | 24 | 20 | 43 | 45 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Havana Belle | 27.03 | 27.75 | 28.02 | 57 | +0.99 | Front runner, rail box | |
| 3 | Buenos Dias | 27.34 | 27.90 | 28.39 | 46 | +1.05 | Top rating, volatile | |
| 4 | Ballintine Ten | 27.36 | 27.81 | 28.26 | 51 | +0.90 | 0 wins from 9 | |
| 6 | Ardnasool Hulk | 27.57 | 27.88 | 27.80 | 50 | +0.23 | 3rd last time | |
| 2 | Salems Banshee | 27.66 | 27.94 | 27.41 | 48 | -0.25 | Sprint form lately |
The last four-bend race of the morning card, an A7 over Harlow's tight 415 metres where the rail compounds its advantage through every turn and trap one wins 22.9% at this grade — the best box on the track from 5,761 runs, with trap five vacant today. The shape is unusually clean: Havana Belle is the only genuine front-runner in the race and she breaks from that golden rail box, while her four rivals are all patient sorts who want to be delivered late. If she gets to the first bend in front — and her break is the sharpest here — she gets the run of the race on the fence. The chasing pack of Ballintine Ten, Buenos Dias and Ardnasool Hulk are all capable of 40-plus ratings but all need something to aim at, and they may leave themselves too much to do.
The race sets up perfectly. She is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, she has the sharpest break and the best speed figures here, her 27.03 course and distance best is the fastest in the race by three lengths, and she is drawn in trap one — the best box at this grade, winning nearly 23%, where the rail will save her ground through all four bends. Ten course and distance runs of experience, every recent start at this grade and trip so the form is honest. Her record shows just one win from those ten and she was fifth last week, which keeps this from being a banker call, but with four hold-up runners behind her she may simply never be headed.
The best-rated dog in the race on performance average, with a 64-rated run in his back form and a respectable one win and three places from six course and distance starts. He improved to a 41 last week after a rocky spell at the sprint trip and his 27.34 best stands second in this field. But he is a patient runner who needs the race to come back to him, and with only one true pace dog in front there may be no collapse to profit from. Trap three is quiet at this grade at 17.1%. The most likely to run down the selection if her stride shortens late.
Third here last week and admirably consistent at this grade — five of his last eight runs rated 40 or better, with a pair of 54s in June. But the bottom line hurts: nine course and distance starts, three places, no wins. Like most of this field he saves his run for the closing stages, and his latest 28.26 clocking was more than four lengths off his best. Trap four is middling at this grade. He will likely be staying on into a place again; winning requires a first, and the pattern says otherwise.
Bounced back to form with a third here last week rated 46, and there is a 63-rated run in his book from June that would win this race outright. Trap six is the second-best box at this grade at 20.3% and the Clarke kennel runs at a healthy 24%. The trouble is the swing in his form — the 46 and 63 sit alongside runs of 23 and 29 — and one win from six course and distance starts is thin. Versatile enough style-wise to take a forward position from the wide draw if he breaks well. A place looks the realistic target unless the good version turns up.
Has been campaigned over the 238-metre sprint for weeks with ratings mostly in the low 20s, and her four attempts at this course and distance have produced nothing — no wins, no places. There is one 48-rated run at the trip in her book from June, and her first-bend work is actually among the best in the field, which hints at more than the bare form shows. But the slowest best time in the race and a poor box at 16.7% leave her with far too much to find against match-fit 415-metre dogs.
Key insight: Trap 1 wins 22.9% at A7 over 415m from 890 runs — the best box at this grade. A front-running dog drawn there gets the track's two biggest structural edges (rail + first bend) stacked together. 5,761 runs.
T1:22.9% T2:16.7% T3:17.1% T4:17.8% T5:16.0% T6:20.3%
5,761 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Havana Belle | 56 | 45 | Front Runner |
2Salems Banshee | 54 | 37 | All-Rounder |
3Buenos Dias | 45 | 57 | Closer |
4Ballintine Ten | 47 | 65 | Closer |
6Ardnasool Hulk | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Havana Belle | — | 0.669 |
| 2 | Salems Banshee | 0.673 | 0.673 |
| 3 | Buenos Dias | 0.672 | 0.672 |
| 4 | Ballintine Ten | 0.681 | 0.670 |
| 6 | Ardnasool Hulk | 0.676 | 0.672 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.