Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Glenadda Lilyb 4y 22 | P Ward — 12% R185 W22 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 29 | 49 (3) | 62 (1) | 45 (4) | 23 (3) | 42 (4) | 56 (3) | 66 (1) | 53 (3) | 54 (4) | 37 (3) | 35 | 34 | 37 | 30 | 52 | 42 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Salems Disaronnob 1y 14 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 34 | 23 (4) | 28 (3) | 23 (5) | 31 (1) | 49 (2) | 30 (1) | 20 (4) | 30 (5) | 34 (5) | 49 (3) | 26 | 31 | 20 | 20 | 41 | 30 | 4 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Nipperb 1y 15 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 50 | 46 (3) | 31 (1) | 49 (3) | 51 (3) | 21 (2) | 24 (3) | 31 (1) | 22 (4) | 25 (2) | 25 (3) | 18 | 29 | - | - | 48 | 41 | 2 | 11/10F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Aurora Slippyb 4y 26 | D K Hurlock — 19% R893 W174 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 61 | 38 (4) | 36 (6) | 37 (5) | 43 (5) | 65 (1) | 35 (5) | 55 (2) | 35 (5) | 40 (5) | 40 (5) | 22 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 42 | 38 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Skidrow Strongbod 2y 4 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 60 | 39 (5) | 45 (3) | 19 (5) | 36 (6) | 38 (5) | 24 (4) | 57 (2) | 23 (3) | 64 (1) | 63 (1) | 40 | 34 | 31 | 24 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenadda Lily | 27.16 | 27.53 | 27.75 | 52 | +0.59 | Fastest + best box | |
| 5 | Aurora Slippy | 27.21 | 27.68 | 28.14 | 44 | +0.93 | 28.14 last run | |
| 6 | Skidrow Strongbo | 27.26 | 27.53 | 27.75 | 47 | +0.49 | Sharpest break | |
| 3 | Nipper | 27.29 | 27.52 | 27.76 | 51 | +0.47 | 0 from 3 here | |
| 2 | Salems Disaronno | 27.55 | 28.10 | 27.75 | 35 | +0.20 | Sprint form only |
Harlow's tight 415-metre trip again, four bends where the rail saves ground every turn and the first bend is the most decisive in the country. At A7 the numbers from 5,761 runs are emphatic: trap one wins 22.9%, the best box by a distance, with trap five the graveyard at 16%. The early speed in this race is all drawn wide — Skidrow Strongbo and Aurora Slippy, the two sharpest breakers, come from traps six and five and both tend to weaken late. That sets up a genuine shape question: the two class dogs, Glenadda Lily on the rail and Nipper in three, are patient sorts who need the leaders to come back to them. Expect Strongbo to lead around the first two bends with Lily working her way through along the rail as the pace collapses in the final hundred metres.
The best-rated dog in the race, the fastest on the clock with a 27.16 course and distance best, and drawn in trap one — the standout box at this grade, winning nearly 23%, where the rail saves her ground through all four bends. She was third here last week and ran a 62-rated race the start before, with two wins from nine course and distance attempts. The catch, and it is a real one, is that she is among the slowest starters in the field: she needs a clean run up the inside while the sharp-breaking wide runners tire in front of her. When that script plays out she wins; when she meets traffic at the first bend she does not. The pieces are good enough to make her the pick, with honest reservations.
The sharpest breaker in the race with the early pace and first-bend ability to lead this field a merry dance from trap six, itself a solid box at 20.3%. He has won two of seven course and distance starts and his 45-rated run two starts back shows he retains ability. The worry is what happens late — he tends to empty in the closing stages, and he was only fifth here last week. But at a track where the leader at the first bend wins more often than anywhere else in the country, the dog most likely to BE that leader is always dangerous.
Third here last week and has put together back-to-back solid efforts at this grade, with ratings in the high 40s and low 50s. He is versatile in his racing style and trap three is unremarkable at this grade at 17.1%. The bigger questions are his record at the trip — no win or place from three course and distance starts — and times that leave him a couple of lengths behind the selection at his best. Consistent enough to be involved in the finish, but he needs a career-best to win this.
Almost all his recent racing has been over the 238-metre sprint, where he clocked the fastest trial of the summer here in June — so raw speed exists. But this is a four-bend stamina test and his record at it is bleak: no wins from four course and distance attempts, the slowest best time in the field by more than three lengths, and ratings that have been stuck in the 20s for weeks. The step back up in distance looks a tough ask on everything he has shown in races.
A course specialist by volume — ten runs at this track and trip — but only one of them was a win, and her recent form has flatlined in the mid-30s with a 65-rated peak back in June the outlier. She breaks well and bends well, which fits the track, but she has drawn trap five, the worst box at this grade at 16%, and her latest 28.14 clocking was nearly five lengths off her own best. The early speed gets her into the race; the draw and the fade take her back out of it.
Key insight: Trap 1 wins 22.9% at A7 over 415m from 890 runs — the standout box. The top-rated dog wins 22.1%, so when the best-rated dog also has the best draw the signals compound. 5,761 runs.
T1:22.9% T2:16.7% T3:17.1% T4:17.8% T5:16.0% T6:20.3%
5,761 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Glenadda Lily | 31 | 95 | Closer |
2Salems Disaronno | 34 | 52 | All-Rounder |
3Nipper | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Aurora Slippy | 58 | 22 | Fader |
6Skidrow Strongbo | 62 | 33 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenadda Lily | 0.673 | 0.663 |
| 2 | Salems Disaronno | 0.670 | 0.677 |
| 3 | Nipper | 0.671 | 0.663 |
| 5 | Aurora Slippy | — | 0.667 |
| 6 | Skidrow Strongbo | 0.677 | 0.663 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.