| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Soggy Runnerd 3y 1 | D F Carter — 13% R345 W45 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 26 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Black Lend 2y 6 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 21 (4) | 31 (1) | 21 (5) | 15 (6) | 22 (5) | 28 (3) | 25 (5) | 29 (3) | 34 (2) | 29 (3) | 36 | 42 | 35 | 27 | 24 | 28 | 4 | 15/8F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Rhombus Lassb 2y 16 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 20 (5) | 25 (3) | 25 (3) | 25 (3) | 31 (2) | 32 (1) | 20 (4) | 26 (2) | 21 (5) | 33 (1) | 37 | 39 | 34 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 2 | 9/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Moaning Diord 2y 9 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 27 (2) | 19 (6) | 22 (4) | 16 (4) | 44 (4) | 60 (3) | 46 (5) | 53 (4) | 73 (1) | 47 (4) | 31 | 31 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 5/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Absconderd 3y 4 | P Ward — 12% R185 W22 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 18 (6) | 22 (4) | 24 (3) | 24 (4) | 24 (4) | 27 (2) | 19 (6) | 20 (6) | 32 (1) | 44 (3) | 18 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Orange Decland 4y 46 | J D T Allen — 9% R198 W17 P88 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 15 (6) | 42 (4) | 45 (2) | 33 (5) | 19 (5) | 12 (6) | 32 (1) | 30 (6) | 60 (2) | 36 (5) | 22 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Orange Declan | 15.61 | 16.09 | 16.36 | 45 | +0.75 | Off form | |
| 3 | Rhombus Lass | 15.65 | 15.91 | 16.23 | 53 | +0.58 | Drops from D4 | |
| 2 | Black Len | 15.66 | 15.96 | 16.21 | 52 | +0.55 | Drops from D4 | |
| 5 | Absconder | 15.80 | 16.05 | 16.36 | 44 | +0.56 | Worst box | |
| 1 | Soggy Runner | 15.91 | 15.91 | 15.91 | 52 | 0.00 | Once-raced, fast trials | |
| 4 | Moaning Dior | 15.91 | 16.17 | 16.01 | 47 | +0.10 | 15.80 trial |
Back to Harlow's 238-metre dash, a one-bend sprint on a tight circuit where the best-bending dog wins nearly one in four and races are decided in the first fifty metres. At D5 grade the outside boxes rule: trap six wins 21.9% and trap three 20% from a sample of 6,761 runs, while trap five is the graveyard at 14.6%. This one has an intriguing shape — Absconder has the most explosive early speed in the race but is stuck in the worst box, while the two grade-droppers from D4, Rhombus Lass and Black Len, bring the fastest proven times in the field. Soggy Runner, a once-raced newcomer with quick trial times, is the wild card on the rail. Expect Absconder to blaze up early with Rhombus Lass and Black Len hunting her down before the line.
The fastest dog in the field on ratings and effectively dropping a grade — all six of her recent runs have come at D4, a level above today's contest, where she has been admirably consistent without winning lately. Her 15.65 best over course and distance is the quickest proven racing time in the field, she has two wins and four places from ten goes at this track and trip, and she lands in trap three, one of the two best boxes at this grade, winning 20%. Dogs who have been holding their own a grade higher and drop into a D5 with the fastest clock in the race do not need much to go right. She is the solid, evidence-backed choice.
The same profile as the selection — a D4 regular dropping into a D5 with a rapid 15.66 course and distance best that only the pick can match. His kennel operates at a strong 26% strike rate, and though he has just one win from ten goes at this track and trip, he has been running against better dogs than these. The catch is the draw: trap two wins barely 16% at this grade and his last couple of finishes have been quiet. Still, on class and clock he is the clearest danger.
The unknown quantity. He has raced just once — a promising second here at this grade ten days ago — and one run tells you very little, but his trial work catches the eye: a 15.60 spin from the rail last month that is quicker than anything the proven dogs here have recorded in a race. Newcomers with one start and flashy trials are notoriously hard to trust, since trial times come without the rough and tumble of a real race. If the trial speed is real he could win this; the honest answer is nobody knows yet.
An interesting one from the in-form Whitton kennel. Her racing form at this level has been modest — second last time but with ratings in the teens and twenties, and no win in four course and distance starts — yet she trialled twice this summer in 15.80 and 15.82, quicker than her official racing best. She showed 44-to-60-rated form in A6 company over the longer trip earlier in her career, so ability is in there somewhere. Trap four is a fair box. If the trial speed shows up in a race she goes close, but her actual race record here says places rather than wins.
The rocket out of the boxes — her early speed and first-bend ability are the best in this field by a distance, and over 238 metres that usually means the race is yours to lose. Unfortunately she has drawn trap five, the worst box at this grade and trip winning under 15%, her ratings have slipped over her last few runs, and she was last of six on her latest start. One win from nine course and distance attempts. She will almost certainly lead to the bend; whether she is still in front at the line from that draw, on her recent form, is another matter.
Gets the best box in the race — trap six wins nearly 22% at this grade — but not the profile to use it. He is a slow starter who does his best work late, the wrong way round for a one-bend dash, and his last run was a poor sixth. There is real ability in his back form, with 42 and 45-rated efforts at A7 over the longer trip, and his 15.61 career best is actually the fastest clocking in the field, but that was some time ago and he has been off since late June. One to watch for a bounce-back, not one to rely on.
Key insight: The fastest dog on the clock wins 24.9% at D5 over 238m versus 20.5% for the top-rated — raw speed is the strongest signal at this grade. Trap 6 (21.9%) and trap 3 (20.0%) are the boxes to have; trap 5 (14.6%) is the worst. 6,761 runs.
T1:16.7% T2:16.2% T3:20.0% T4:18.6% T5:14.6% T6:21.9%
6,761 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 400m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soggy Runner | 0.668 | — | — |
| 2 | Black Len | 0.671 | — | — |
| 3 | Rhombus Lass | 0.669 | — | — |
| 4 | Moaning Dior | 0.679 | — | 0.660 |
| 5 | Absconder | 0.674 | 0.625 | — |
| 6 | Orange Declan | 0.676 | — | 0.676 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.