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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Paxtond 3y 15 | J J Luckhurst — 13% R252 W33 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 43 | 70 (3) | 87 (1) | 83 (1) | 68 (3) | 56 (5) | 50 (6) | 50 (5) | 82 (1) | 61 (3) | 60 (5) | 31 | 29 | - | 37 | 70 | 51 | 1 | 11/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Sportsmans Jetd 2y 16 | N F Carter — 19% R257 W50 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 39 | 55 (5) | 67 (2) | 39 (3) | 69 (6) | 66 (3) | 71 (2) | 64 (2) | 68 (4) | 58 (3) | - | 25 | 31 | 7 | 23 | 64 | 46 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Witton Macd 2y 17 | J J Luckhurst — 13% R252 W33 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 50 | 60 (5) | 64 (5) | 47 (4) | 64 (4) | 60 (4) | 49 (5) | 90 (1) | 56 (5) | 46 (1) | 31 (5) | 41 | 38 | 46 | 20 | 60 | 51 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Clongeel Sminkyb 2y 29 | N F Carter — 19% R257 W50 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 63 | 87 (1) | 91 (1) | 51 (5) | 75 (4) | 65 (3) | 66 (3) | 56 (4) | 90 (5) | 61 (1) | - | 35 | 38 | 45 | 41 | 74 | 52 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Devonshire Aced 1y 15 | D P Brabon — 19% R304 W59 P180 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 26 | 50 | 51 (5) | 48 (5) | 62 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 53 | 29 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clongeel Sminky | 29.21 | 29.61 | 29.82 | 53 | +0.61 | Won last time | |
| 3 | Witton Mac | 29.26 | 29.62 | 29.53 | 55 | +0.27 | Top speed rating | |
| 1 | Swift Paxton | 29.28 | 29.78 | 29.75 | 50 | +0.47 | ||
| 2 | Sportsmans Jet | 29.51 | 29.71 | 29.75 | 46 | +0.24 | ||
| 5 | Devonshire Ace | 29.76 | 30.12 | 30.38 | 26 | +0.62 | Flying trials |
Central Park's 491m trip looks galloping on paper but the short run-up and awkward first bend mean it races tight, and dogs buried at the first turn rarely get back into it. At A1 grade trap 4 has been the standout box, winning close to one in four from 210 runs, while the wide boxes suffer. This is a five-runner affair with no trap 6. Clongeel Sminky arrives in the form of his life — back-to-back big performances including a win here last Saturday — and he breaks from the best box. Witton Mac has the top speed rating and takes them along early from trap 3, while Swift Paxton is a strong finisher who needs the leaders to tire. Devonshire Ace has been clocking sensational trial times but hasn't yet shown it in three open races — the wild card.
In the form of his life — he won here last Saturday with a rating of 87 and ran a 91 the start before, figures nothing else in this field has approached lately. He owns the fastest best time over the trip at 29.21, has three wins from ten at this course and distance, and now gets the plum draw: trap 4 wins nearly one in four A1 races over this course and distance. He shows sharp early pace but can weaken in the closing stages — with this much form in the bank, though, he may simply be too good for them to peg back. The clear pick on everything that matters.
The top speed rating in the field and a versatile sort who can race prominently or sit just off the leaders. His 30% career strike rate is the best here and his clockings — a 29.26 best and 29.53 last time — are genuinely quick. The knock is a single win from eight tries at this course and distance, but on raw pace he's the one most likely to make the selection work for it. Big threat.
A proper A1 stayer with three wins from nine at this course and distance and a recent peak rating of 87 that only the selection can match. He tends to be outpaced early and relies on a strong late run, and that style has its risks on a track where the first bend causes chaos. Third here last week and rarely far away — he'll be picking them off late if the pace collapses in front. Solid each-way claims from the rail.
Placed in three of nine at this course and distance but has never won over it, and he was well held in fifth here a fortnight ago. He's another who does his best work late, and with a 44% place rate he's the sort who fills the frame more often than the winner's slot. Open-class form in the book but the recent evidence puts him behind the front two in this market.
The mystery runner. His three winning trials over this exact trip — all around 29.3 seconds — are faster than anything this field has done in a race. But in three open runs he's yet to trouble the judge, and dogs with trial-built form often can't reproduce it in traffic. Until he shows that speed in company he has to be watched, not backed. If it clicks, he wins by lengths — that's the gamble.
Key insight: Trap 4 is the dominant A1 box at 24.8% from 210 runs. The fastest dog wins 25.7% — but this 491m trip is historically one of the harder distances to call, so nothing is nailed on.
T1:21.0% T2:18.4% T3:18.9% T4:24.8% T5:17.1% T6:15.2%
1,386 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Swift Paxton | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Sportsmans Jet | 45 | 66 | Closer |
3Witton Mac | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Clongeel Sminky | 61 | 0 | Fader |
5Devonshire Ace | 50 | 0 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 491m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (491m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 491m | 664m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swift Paxton | — | 0.607 | 0.638 |
| 2 | Sportsmans Jet | 0.598 | 0.605 | — |
| 3 | Witton Mac | 0.598 | 0.603 | — |
| 4 | Clongeel Sminky | — | 0.603 | — |
| 5 | Devonshire Ace | — | 0.613 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.