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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Abbodabbo Emmab 5y 14 | L B Pearce — 17% R123 W21 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 63 (2) | 58 (2) | 49 (3) | 68 (1) | 67 (1) | 49 (4) | 65 (1) | 68 (1) | 58 (2) | 36 (5) | 37 | 39 | 45 | 52 | 59 | 53 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Miami Eagled 2y 6 | L B Pearce — 17% R123 W21 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 45 | 49 (5) | 67 (1) | 70 (2) | 53 (4) | 61 (2) | 55 (3) | 72 (1) | 44 (3) | 53 (5) | 43 (5) | 24 | 36 | 32 | 37 | 58 | 59 | 1 | 11/10F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Montana Faithfulb 1y 7 | T M Levers — 12% R91 W11 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 37 | 40 (5) | 46 (3) | 34 (6) | 34 (6) | 41 (5) | 47 (4) | 47 (5) | 48 (3) | 70 (1) | 45 (3) | - | 14 | - | 9 | 43 | 39 | 6 | 22/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Shadow Warriord 3y 6 | L B Pearce — 17% R123 W21 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 55 | 48 (3) | 24 (3) | 66 (4) | 54 (2) | 62 (3) | 50 (2) | 49 (4) | 60 (5) | 56 (2) | - | 16 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 56 | 51 | 2 | 15/8 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hollyoak Ethelb 2y 16 | R W Butler — 17% R178 W30 P94 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 51 | 52 (4) | 36 (6) | 49 (3) | 62 (2) | 47 (4) | 58 (2) | 50 (4) | 49 (3) | 59 (3) | 69 (1) | - | 34 | 26 | 24 | 51 | 44 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Aero Badbloodb 2y 7 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 60 | 28 (6) | 39 (5) | 41 (5) | 37 (4) | 54 (3) | 46 (4) | 46 (5) | 49 (4) | 36 (6) | 33 (3) | 1 | - | - | - | 40 | 30 | 5 | 20/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Miami Eagle | 29.79 | 30.26 | 30.37 | 69 | +0.58 | Fastest, won trials | |
| 4 | Shadow Warrior | 29.82 | 30.33 | 30.66 | 62 | +0.84 | 0 wins at trip | |
| 5 | Hollyoak Ethel | 30.21 | 30.61 | 30.67 | 51 | +0.46 | ||
| 3 | Montana Faithful | 30.24 | 30.74 | 30.78 | 46 | +0.54 | ||
| 1 | Abbodabbo Emma | 30.28 | 30.72 | 30.47 | 51 | +0.19 | 4 C&D wins | |
| 6 | Aero Badblood | 30.41 | 30.70 | 31.17 | 39 | +0.76 | Outclassed on times |
Central Park's 491m rides much tighter than its galloping dimensions suggest — a short run-up into a difficult first bend means early position is precious, though the longer trip does give strong finishers a fighting chance. At A5 grade trap 4 has been the best box at 23.6% from 123 runs with trap 3 the black spot at barely 10%, and the fastest dog in the race wins 26% — the strongest signal at this grade. That sets up a fascinating tension: Miami Eagle is comfortably the fastest dog here but he's a hold-up runner from trap 2, while Abbodabbo Emma from the rail is the proven course-and-distance winner — four victories from ten — with the form consistency Eagle lacks. Shadow Warrior brings the second-best speed from the best box but hasn't won at the trip in nine tries. The early leader is likely Shadow Warrior or Emma; the finish should see Eagle flying home. Whether he gets there in time is the race.
The most complete profile in the race. Four wins and seven top-two finishes from ten at this course and distance — comfortably the best record here — plus the top performance figures in the field and a fine second at this grade last week. She's versatile, able to race prominently or come from off the pace, and from the rail she should be handy round the crucial first bend. Her raw speed doesn't match Miami Eagle's, and that's the honest caveat, but she wins races while he collects placings: a 25% strike rate against his 13%. At a trip where knowing the way home counts, she's the percentage call.
The speed of the race by a street — a rating of 69 with the next best on 62, and a 29.79 best that no rival has matched. He's also been winning his trials over this exact trip, three on the bounce, and he drops from A4 company today. So why isn't he the pick? Because he's a confirmed hold-up runner who's turned that speed into just two wins from ten at the course and distance, and a 13% career strike rate says the late surge keeps arriving a stride too late. If he breaks level for once, he wins. The most dangerous dog on the card who probably won't quite get there — but the one to have on your side in forecasts.
Struggling to make an impact at this level — fifth last week, one win and just one other top-two finish from ten at the course and distance, and ratings stuck in the 30s and 40s. Now he draws the coffin box: trap 3 wins barely one A5 race in ten at this trip. Tends to be outpaced early and relies on late progress that rarely comes. Very hard to make a case.
Second-fastest in the race, the best box at the grade, and sharp early pace — the ingredients are all here, which is exactly what makes his record so frustrating: nine course and distance runs without a win. His form is volatile, a 66-rated run sitting alongside some shockers, and he shows sharp early speed but can weaken in the closing stages, which at 491m is a real liability. He'll likely lead into the back straight. Whether he's still leading off the last bend is another matter.
An honest A5 campaigner — six straight runs at the grade, placed in three of her last six, and a versatile running style that keeps her out of trouble. But one win from ten at the course and distance and middle-of-the-road times cap the enthusiasm, and trap 5 is a below-average draw at this trip. Fourth last week reads about right. Place money at best.
Stepping up from A6 company and struggling even there lately — last of six here a week ago and yet to record a win or a place in nine tries at this course and distance. His times are the slowest in the field and while he stays on late, he gives the leaders far too much rope. Trap 6 is a decent box at this grade, which is about the only positive. Others are simply quicker.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 25.9% at A5 491m (228 runs) — the best single edge. Trap 4 tops the boxes at 23.6%; trap 3 is a notorious dead zone at 10.4%.
T1:20.6% T2:19.8% T3:10.4% T4:23.6% T5:14.2% T6:21.2%
717 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Abbodabbo Emma | 50 | 39 | All-Rounder |
2Miami Eagle | 50 | 61 | Closer |
3Montana Faithful | 40 | 81 | Closer |
4Shadow Warrior | 60 | 17 | Fader |
5Hollyoak Ethel | 53 | 21 | All-Rounder |
6Aero Badblood | 33 | 94 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 491m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (491m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 480m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbodabbo Emma | — | — | 0.626 |
| 2 | Miami Eagle | — | — | 0.616 |
| 3 | Montana Faithful | — | — | 0.626 |
| 4 | Shadow Warrior | 0.629 | — | 0.618 |
| 5 | Hollyoak Ethel | — | — | 0.624 |
| 6 | Aero Badblood | — | 0.624 | 0.625 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.