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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyoak Violetb 3y 4 | R W Butler — 17% R178 W30 P94 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 30 (3) | 28 (2) | 27 (2) | 25 (3) | 57 (3) | 44 (6) | 64 (2) | 49 (6) | 82 (1) | 63 (3) | 31 | 29 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 4 | 11/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Rocket Ticb 1yN/R 1 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 31 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25 | - | 30 | 31 | 31 | - | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Starson Queenb 2y 6 | L B Pearce — 17% R123 W21 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 22 (6) | 35 (1) | 31 (1) | 31 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 52 | 30 | 43 | 29 | 29 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Samba Blazed 2y 2 | N F Carter — 19% R257 W50 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 4 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Airlie Nambuccad 2y 4 | L B Pearce — 17% R123 W21 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 29 (3) | 24 (5) | 36 (1) | 21 (6) | 19 (6) | 29 (2) | 19 (6) | 26 (4) | 23 (6) | 36 (1) | 18 | 37 | 39 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 1 | 9/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Greenhall Tokyod 5y 25 | M Mavrias — 13% R242 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 27 (4) | 26 (5) | 28 (3) | 26 (4) | 32 (4) | 28 (5) | 29 (3) | 29 (4) | 34 (4) | - | 29 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Greenhall Tokyo | 16.55 | 16.93 | 17.15 | 60 | +0.60 | Speed pick, 0 C&D wins | |
| 5 | Airlie Nambucca | 16.77 | 17.12 | 17.16 | 53 | +0.39 | ||
| 3 | Starson Queen | 16.97 | 17.12 | 17.35 | 46 | +0.38 | 2 C&D wins | |
| 2 | Rocket Tic | 16.98 | 16.98 | 16.98 | 54 | 0.00 | Won only open run | |
| 1 | Hollyoak Violet | 16.99 | 17.11 | 17.18 | 50 | +0.19 | ||
| 4 | Samba Blaze | — | — | — | — | — | No race form data |
The card closes with another 277m sprint into Central Park's awkward first bend, at the D3 grade where the numbers are at their least helpful — the top-rated dog wins only about one in five here and the trap pattern is nearly flat, traps 4 and 6 fractionally best and trap 3 quietest. Only a couple of dozen runs separate most of the boxes, so treat the draw as a lean rather than gospel. It's a genuinely open finale: Greenhall Tokyo has the standout speed figures from a good box but has somehow never won in ten goes at the trip, Rocket Tic won his only open start and is climbing from D4, and Airlie Nambucca drops in from D2 company with respectable pace. Samba Blaze is a near-total unknown with no readable race form, and Starson Queen has won two of her three visits but is drawn in the dead box. Tokyo should lead — whether he finally holds on is the race in a nutshell.
The fastest dog in the race and it isn't close — a speed rating of 60 with the next best on 54, and a 16.55 best that beats the field by two lengths on the clock. He's drawn in the joint-best box at the grade and has 82 races of track experience. So why only a cautious vote? Because he has never won in ten runs at this course and distance, his career strike rate is 15%, and his ratings have flatlined in the high 20s for months. Somebody this fast, from this draw, in a field this ordinary, should finally get his day — but he's been burning punters on that exact logic all season. Pick, with both eyes open.
Won his only open race — a D4 ten days ago in 16.98 — and steps up a grade off the back of it. One run is a thin book, but he's second on the speed charts here and the victory showed he races cleanly in company, which his trial-heavy background didn't guarantee. Trap 2 is a below-average box at this grade and the step up is real; even so, an unbeaten dog with pace commands respect in a race this open.
Ran at A2 level in the spring with ratings up to 57, so on old paper she's the classiest here, but four course and distance runs without a win and recent D3 form in the high 20s tell the current story. She shows decent early pace and can weaken late, which at a sprint isn't fatal, and third last week was respectable. Needs more to trouble the quickest ones.
Two wins from three at this course and distance is a lovely strike rate, but the gloss fades on inspection: she was last of six in a D2 a fortnight ago, her clockings have drifted to 17.35, and she now draws the quietest box at the grade. Lightly raced enough that improvement is possible, and her June trial win in a flat 17.00 was fair. She needs the race to open up for her from the wrong slot.
The blank page of the race — one open run (fifth here ten days ago) with no readable rating or time attached, and a set of trials that swing from a smart 16.94 win to a plodding 17.70. Trap 4 is the joint-best box at this grade, which is something, but there's simply no reliable evidence to build a case on. Anything is possible; nothing is likely enough to back.
Drops from D2 company after a sound third ten days ago, and her two wins from ten at this course and distance came with better times than most here can muster — a 16.77 best and third on the speed charts. Trap 5 is a quiet box at the grade and her ratings are modest, but the grade drop and current sharpness make her a live contender in an open heat. In the mix.
Key insight: D3 is the track's flattest, least predictable grade — top-rated wins 19.1%, fastest wins 21.8%, and no trap clears 19%. Confidence should be low across the board here.
T1:17.2% T2:16.1% T3:15.2% T4:18.9% T5:15.9% T6:18.9%
2,150 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 491m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyoak Violet | 0.618 | 0.609 | — |
| 3 | Starson Queen | 0.618 | — | 0.578 |
| 4 | Samba Blaze | — | — | — |
| 5 | Airlie Nambucca | 0.618 | — | — |
| 6 | Greenhall Tokyo | 0.611 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.