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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Harlequin Upbeatb 3y 6 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 28 (6) | 40 (1) | 27 (5) | 29 (5) | 23 (5) | 42 (2) | 38 (2) | 40 (2) | 46 (1) | 39 (2) | 29 | 27 | 26 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Snowdon Melb 3y 27 | J J Luckhurst — 13% R252 W33 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 34 (2) | 63 (3) | 52 (5) | 87 (1) | 63 (4) | 64 (4) | 73 (2) | 90 (1) | 61 (4) | 62 (3) | 32 | 37 | 18 | 18 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Coillbhui Norab 3y 16 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 44 (1) | 31 (5) | 36 (3) | 36 (2) | 40 (1) | 40 (1) | 46 (5) | 59 (4) | 46 (5) | 39 (2) | 32 | 40 | 34 | 52 | 38 | 36 | 1 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Frainey Towbard 4y 15 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 41 (1) | 27 (6) | 40 (1) | 24 (6) | 42 (1) | 41 (1) | 26 (5) | 25 (6) | 27 (5) | 26 (3) | 13 | 19 | 9 | 41 | 33 | 31 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Eire Force Twod 5y 24 | M Mavrias — 13% R242 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 42 (2) | 34 (4) | 37 (4) | 66 (5) | 48 (1) | 46 (1) | 66 (5) | 68 (4) | 34 (3) | 100 (1) | 21 | 31 | 32 | 28 | 40 | 34 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Headford Sirlb 1y 5 | R Pattinson — 13% R96 W12 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 31 (4) | 34 (3) | 41 (6) | 88 (1) | 47 (1) | 47 (1) | 39 (3) | 42 (1) | 28 (4) | - | 26 | 37 | 34 | 34 | 38 | 37 | 3 | 10/11F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Eire Force Two | 16.28 | 16.68 | 16.64 | 59 | +0.36 | Speed pick | |
| 6 | Headford Sirl | 16.35 | 16.66 | 17.05 | 52 | +0.70 | 43% strike rate | |
| 3 | Coillbhui Nora | 16.51 | 16.75 | 16.86 | 50 | +0.35 | ||
| 1 | Harlequin Upbeat | 16.55 | 16.85 | 17.16 | 44 | +0.61 | ||
| 4 | Frainey Towbar | 16.56 | 16.89 | 16.65 | 50 | +0.09 | 4 C&D wins | |
| 2 | Snowdon Mel | 16.78 | 16.78 | 16.83 | 47 | +0.05 | OR dropper, 1 run at trip |
Another 277m scramble to Central Park's awkward first bend, where the short run-up means the race is usually settled before halfway. At D1 grade trap 4 leads the boxes at 22.1% from 375 runs with trap 6 close behind at 21.6%, while the inside pair struggle — and the fastest dog wins one in four, the best signal at this grade. This is a deep heat by midday standards. Eire Force Two brings the top speed rating and the fastest best time from the middle, Headford Sirl has won three of his seven starts at the course and distance and gets the strong wide box, and Frainey Towbar — four course wins — and Coillbhui Nora both arrive off victories. Snowdon Mel drops in from open company but has raced this trip just once. The break decides it: Force Two on the clock, but there are four or five live ones if he fluffs it.
The pace of the race. His speed rating of 59 tops the field, his 16.28 best is the fastest anyone here has run, and his last visit produced a 16.64 when second in a D1 a week ago — form that's fully current. He's also the top-rated dog on overall performance with a recent peak of 66, and three wins from ten at the course and distance show he finishes the job. Trap 5 is a middling box, the one blemish on the profile, but at a grade where the fastest dog wins one in four, being clearly the fastest is the argument that matters most.
A 43% career strike rate — win nearly every other start — with three victories from seven at this course and distance and a strong box: trap 6 takes over a fifth of D1 sprints here. The catch is his style: he's slow into stride and relies on a strong late run, an awkward habit at a track where the first bend arrives in seconds, and his last two runs have been quiet since a huge 88-rated open-class effort in the spring. If the leaders bump, that finishing rush makes him the biggest danger in the race.
Placed in six of his ten runs at this course and distance, so he's rarely far away, but the recent form is worrying — last of six a week ago and his clockings have drifted past 17.1 while his best of 16.55 gathers dust. The rail is a quiet draw at this grade too. He'd need a sharp bounce-back and a messy race in front of him.
The class question mark. Five of her last six runs came in open company where she hit a peak rating of 87 — form leagues above a midday D1 — and she was second on her only start at this course and distance last week. But that's just one run at the trip, her sprint speed is unexceceptional on the numbers, and she's drawn in the worst box on the card. Dropping from opens to D1 demands respect; the draw demands caution in equal measure.
Won here a fortnight ago and owns a tidy record at the trip — three wins and five top-two finishes from seven, with a 29% career strike rate. She's versatile in running and trap 3 is a fair box at this grade. The only knock is raw pace: her 16.51 best and mid-tier speed rating leave her needing the quicker breakers to falter. She rarely runs a bad race though, and win number four at the course and distance wouldn't shock.
Four wins from ten at this course and distance — the joint-best winning record in the race — and he took a D2 in 16.65 a fortnight ago, so he arrives sharp and gets the statistically best box at the grade. His ratings yo-yo and his best clocking sits mid-pack, but a proven finisher from trap 4 with current form can't be dismissed. Solid win-or-place claims.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 25.2% at D1 (714 runs). Trap 4 best at 22.1%, trap 6 next at 21.6%, inside boxes weak at under 15%.
T1:14.5% T2:12.9% T3:19.5% T4:22.1% T5:17.0% T6:21.6%
2,246 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 400m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harlequin Upbeat | 0.608 | — | — |
| 2 | Snowdon Mel | 0.606 | — | 0.600 |
| 3 | Coillbhui Nora | 0.605 | — | 0.617 |
| 4 | Frainey Towbar | 0.610 | — | — |
| 5 | Eire Force Two | 0.602 | — | — |
| 6 | Headford Sirl | 0.601 | 0.615 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.