| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ravestock Buckd 3y 8 | R Pattinson — 13% R96 W12 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | - | 41 (1) | 39 (3) | 30 (5) | 34 (4) | 32 (4) | 33 (3) | 36 (3) | 40 (3) | 36 (3) | 45 (1) | 26 | 22 | 21 | 26 | 36 | 34 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Millbank Dusterd 1yN/R 2 | D P Brabon — 19% R304 W59 P180 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 37 (2) | 37 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 32 | - | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Genuine Sambucad 1y 16 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 20 (5) | 28 (5) | 45 (1) | 33 (3) | 47 (1) | 30 (5) | 41 (1) | 32 (3) | 35 (2) | 37 (1) | 47 | 45 | 28 | 40 | 33 | 34 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Echo Milanb 1y 3 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 28 (5) | 41 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 25 | 6 | 36 | 34 | 29 | 3 | 11/10F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Rocket Megzyb 1y 1 | B D O'sullivan — 20% R496 W100 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 29 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 29 | 23 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Intrinsicd 3y 5 | N F Carter — 19% R257 W50 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 22 (6) | 41 (2) | 31 (5) | 33 (3) | 33 (4) | 34 (4) | 31 (5) | 47 (1) | 22 (6) | 29 (4) | 18 | 28 | 16 | 15 | 32 | 30 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Genuine Sambuca | 16.41 | 16.88 | 17.55 | 46 | +1.14 | 4 C&D wins, slow LTO | |
| 6 | Intrinsic | 16.43 | 16.87 | 17.39 | 48 | +0.96 | ||
| 1 | Ravestock Buck | 16.51 | 16.70 | 16.70 | 61 | +0.19 | Speed pick, won LTO | |
| 4 | Echo Milan | 16.60 | 16.90 | 17.19 | 48 | +0.59 | ||
| 2 | Millbank Duster | 16.68 | 16.70 | 16.68 | 59 | 0.00 | 2 open runs only | |
| 5 | Rocket Megzy | 17.08 | 17.08 | 17.13 | 39 | +0.05 | 1 open run |
Another 277m blast at Central Park, where the short run to a difficult first bend hands the race to the quick breakers. At D1 grade trap 4 is the prime box at 22.1% from 375 runs with trap 6 next best, while the inside pair — occupied today by the two fastest dogs — win under 15% between them. That's the tension in this race: Ravestock Buck brings the top speed rating and a last-time-out win but breaks from the weak rail box, and Millbank Duster, second on the charts with a rapid string of trials behind him, has the graveyard trap 2. Genuine Sambuca is the proven closer of deals — four wins from ten at the course and distance and a 38% strike rate — but his last two runs have been poor. Echo Milan in the best box is lightly raced with a win here already. Whoever escapes the inside congestion first probably settles it.
The form and the stopwatch both point here. He won a D2 last Friday with a career-best 41 rating, owns the top speed rating in the field at 61, and his last two clockings of 16.65 and 16.70 are the best current times in the race. Most of his recent racing has been at this D1 level, so the grade holds no fears. The one genuine negative is the draw — the rail wins under 15% of D1 sprints here — and his kennel is out of form, so he'll need a clean break to use that pace. On a card where this grade offers few certainties, top speed plus a last-time-out win is the strongest hand going.
The most proven winner in the race — four victories from ten at this course and distance, a 38% career strike rate, and a 16.41 best that's the fastest clocking in the field. The worry is what he's done lately: fifth and then well beaten in his last two, with a 17.55 last time that's nearly a second off his peak. Dogs with his record don't usually stay out of form long, and trap 3 is a fair box. If the real Sambuca turns up he's the one the selection has to survive.
Just two open races to his name — both solid, including a second here ten days ago — and a June trial campaign that produced quick wins in 16.65 and 16.73. The talent is obvious and he's second on the speed charts, but a dog this inexperienced drawn in the worst box on the card is a lot to ask: most of what we know about him comes from solo runs, not racing in a pack. Could easily be better than this grade eventually; today has hurdles.
Lightly raced — just a couple of open runs, winning one of them here — and now he lands the best box at the grade. His June trials were tidy and his 33% strike rate, while from a tiny sample, shows he knows where the line is. Fifth last time was flat, and with so little exposed form he's hard to weigh, but the draw alone makes him interesting at a price.
One open race — fifth here last week — and a couple of trials, one of them a quick 16.64 win in late June. That's the entire book on her, and with the lowest ratings and slowest race clocking in the field she's impossible to recommend on evidence. The trial pace hints at better; she needs to show it in company first.
His 16.43 best time is second only to Sambuca's in this field, and trap 6 is a strong box at the grade — but the recent form is stone cold: last of six a fortnight ago, one win from ten at the course and distance, and a 17.39 last clocking that's a second off his peak. His trainer is the sharpest represented here, which is worth a second look, but the dog needs to find his old dash from somewhere.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 25.2% at D1 (714 runs) but today's two quickest are drawn 1-2, the weakest side (14.5% and 12.9%). A rare race where speed and draw pull hard in opposite directions.
T1:14.5% T2:12.9% T3:19.5% T4:22.1% T5:17.0% T6:21.6%
2,246 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.