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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Goldstard 1y 5 | R Pattinson — 13% R96 W12 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | - | 20 (4) | 26 (4) | 44 (5) | 49 (5) | 52 (2) | 47 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | 8 | - | - | 29 | 21 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ropewalk Flyteb 1y 3 | M Mavrias — 13% R243 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 27 (2) | 15 (5) | 18 (6) | 24 (3) | 24 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 28 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 7/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Hollyoak Sophiab 3y 15 | R W Butler — 17% R178 W30 P94 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 24 (6) | 42 (6) | 52 (3) | 38 (3) | 29 (5) | 23 (1) | 27 (3) | 23 (2) | 25 (3) | - | 21 | 32 | 22 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 2 | 15/8 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Fagans Rockyd 3y 5 | M Mavrias — 13% R243 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 31 (1) | 26 (2) | 22 (5) | 25 (4) | 27 (3) | 27 (4) | 22 (5) | 35 (1) | 31 (2) | 31 (2) | 14 | 27 | 50 | 42 | 27 | 25 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Mucho Macho Lilyb 5y 25 | M Mavrias — 13% R243 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 20 (5) | 19 (5) | 28 (2) | 29 (1) | 26 (2) | 24 (3) | 27 (2) | 22 (3) | 27 (2) | 20 (4) | 20 | 22 | 16 | 28 | 24 | 22 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Mellieha Mariab 3y 6 | R Pattinson — 13% R96 W12 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 20 (3) | 25 (3) | 24 (2) | 20 (5) | 22 (4) | 16 (6) | 19 (6) | 32 (1) | 21 (6) | 30 (2) | 30 | 26 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 4 | 9/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mucho Macho Lily | 16.79 | 17.14 | 17.31 | 51 | +0.52 | ||
| 6 | Mellieha Maria | 16.81 | 17.20 | 17.49 | 47 | +0.68 | ||
| 4 | Fagans Rocky | 16.91 | 17.09 | 16.99 | 55 | +0.08 | Speed pick, won here | |
| 3 | Hollyoak Sophia | 16.92 | 17.13 | 17.11 | 52 | +0.19 | Class edge, sharp trials | |
| 2 | Ropewalk Flyte | 17.06 | 17.40 | 17.06 | 46 | 0.00 | Best trap, no wins | |
| 1 | Tommys Goldstar | 17.31 | 17.46 | 17.61 | 32 | +0.30 | Slowest in field |
Central Park's 277m sprint rewards the fast break above all — the run to the difficult first bend is short and the leader is rarely reeled in. D4 grade flips the usual trap pattern here: trap 2 is the best box at 22.1% from 231 runs with trap 3 next, while trap 5 collapses to 13.3% and the rail is little better. This is a modest heat on ratings and the speed figures separate it cleanly. Fagans Rocky brings the top rating and a win at this grade three weeks ago, Hollyoak Sophia has been trialling like a dog who shouldn't be in a D4 and gets a strong box, and Ropewalk Flyte matched his career best last time from what is now the golden draw. Tommys Goldstar tops the performance figures but is comfortably the slowest in the field — a placer's profile. Rocky to lead, Sophia to hound him.
The fastest dog in the field on the ratings and the most convincing recent winner — he took a D4 here in late June, clocking within a whisker of his 16.91 best, and his 16.99 last time is quicker than anything else here has managed this month. Two wins and five top-two finishes from ten at the course and distance give him the proven record his main rival lacks, and much of his earlier racing was a grade higher at D3. Trap 4 is a middling box at this grade, but at a sprint where the fastest dog wins nearly one in four, being both the quickest and the form pick is a strong hand.
The class runner in a D4 — she was racing at A5 and D2 through the spring with a 52-rated peak, and her June trials were rapid: 16.93 and 17.06, quicker than anything this field has raced lately. Second-best speed rating here, a win from six at the course and distance, and trap 3 is a strong box at this grade. Her last open run was a flop, sixth in a D2, which is presumably why she's here — and that makes her the obvious threat if she returns to anything like her trial speed.
Tops the performance figures thanks to some fair efforts at A5 over the longer trip earlier this year, but the sprint evidence is thin and poor — two runs at this course and distance without a place, a best of just 17.31, and the slowest speed rating in the race by a distance. He's outpaced early and stays on when it's all over. The 277m looks too sharp.
Second here ten days ago in 17.06 — a career best — and now lands the statistically best box at this grade, which wins better than one in five. The concern is a total blank in the win column: no victories in five tries at the course and distance and none anywhere, with performance figures the second-lowest in the field. The draw gives him every chance to break his duck; the record says he'll find one too good again.
Worked her way up from D5 company but the current form is modest — fifth last week and ratings stuck around the 20s, with one win from ten at the course and distance. Now she draws the coffin box at this grade: trap 5 wins barely one D4 sprint in eight. Her 16.79 best shows a bigger engine than recent runs suggest, but everything needs to go right from the worst slot on the card.
A model of modest consistency — third here a fortnight ago and placed in about a third of her starts, but just one win from ten at the course and distance and the lowest performance average in the race. Trap 6 is a decent draw at this grade and she won a trial in May, so she'll be thereabouts early. Realistic target is the places again.
Key insight: D4 reverses the trap pattern — trap 2 best at 22.1% (231 runs), trap 5 worst at 13.3%. The fastest dog wins 23.4%, still the strongest signal.
T1:14.7% T2:22.1% T3:20.8% T4:18.0% T5:13.3% T6:19.1%
1,468 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Goldstar | 0.630 | 0.621 |
| 2 | Ropewalk Flyte | 0.628 | — |
| 3 | Hollyoak Sophia | 0.618 | 0.629 |
| 4 | Fagans Rocky | 0.617 | — |
| 5 | Mucho Macho Lily | 0.619 | — |
| 6 | Mellieha Maria | 0.621 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.