This Runs Deep A6 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rossie Fifib 5y 23 | - | - | 58 | - | 62 (4) | 42 (5) | 62 (2) | 44 (5) | 54 (2) | 41 (5) | 50 (2) | 46 (5) | 39 (6) | 34 (6) | 9 | 17 | - | 18 | 50 | 43 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Liffeyside Alderb 2y 17 | - | - | 35 | - | 42 (5) | 60 (4) | 55 (3) | 35 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 48 | 31 | 4 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Bawn Willowd 2y 36 | - | - | 47 | - | 37 (6) | 52 (4) | 59 (5) | 65 (3) | 45 (6) | 34 (6) | 34 (6) | 67 (2) | 30 (6) | 46 (2) | 2 | 7 | - | 4 | 48 | 32 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Beebolt Daisyb 2y 6 | Beatrice Steiner — 7% R28 W2 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | - | 59 (2) | 57 (2) | 64 (3) | 54 (5) | 69 (1) | 55 (2) | 52 (2) | 52 (3) | 56 (2) | 46 (5) | 25 | 30 | 3 | 38 | 58 | 54 | 2 | 13/8f | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Gunner Ladd 4yN/R 34 | - | - | 44 | - | 41 (4) | 51 (2) | 45 (3) | 43 (4) | 45 (5) | 43 (4) | 42 (5) | 53 (2) | 68 (1) | 43 (5) | 16 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 32 | - | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bawn Willow | 29.60 | 30.22 | 30.82 | 47 | +1.22 | Out of form | |
| 5 | Amandas Bay | 29.60 | 30.12 | 30.40 | 55 | +0.80 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 1 | Rossie Fifi | 29.67 | 30.16 | 30.13 | 58 | +0.46 | Down from A5 | |
| 4 | Beebolt Daisy | 29.74 | 30.00 | 29.85 | 64 | +0.11 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Gunner Lad | 29.87 | 30.29 | 30.68 | 44 | +0.81 | Worst draw | |
| 2 | Liffeyside Alder | 30.06 | 30.42 | 30.85 | 35 | +0.79 | Slowest in field |
The second A6 of the afternoon over Mullingar's 525 metres, and the grade's health warning applies again: the top-rated dog wins only 18.5% of these and the fastest dog does even worse at 14%, so open racing is the default expectation. Trap 2 is the best box at 18.6%, trap 6 the worst at 9.3%. That said, this particular field has more separation than most at the grade. Beebolt Daisy is nine ratings points clear at the top, owns the field's best speed figure comfortably, and has finished in the frame in seven of ten runs here — she drops a notch in ratings terms from recent A7 seconds and sets a standard nothing else matches. Rossie Fifi is the only other runner with a genuine turn of foot, while the rest are honest grade-level dogs who need the front two to bring trouble on themselves at the first bend.
Stands clear of this field on almost every measure. Her speed figure of 64 is six points better than anything else here, she's nine ratings points clear at the top of the market, and she has finished first or second in seven of her ten course-and-distance runs — including seconds in each of her last two at A7. Her last clocking of 29.85 was the best in this field and just a whisker off her personal best, so she arrives in form. The kennel's low strike rate and a below-par trap 4 draw are the quibbles, but at a grade where nothing is certain, she has the most working in her favour by a distance.
The only other runner with real pace — her speed figure of 58 is second only to the pick's — and she's been racing at A5, a grade above this, running a respectable fourth there last week with a 62-rated effort. Her form alternates good runs with quiet ones, and seven course-and-distance starts have brought three placings but no win. The rail draw is fair at this grade and the class drop is the kind that wakes a dog up. If the pick misses her break, this is the one who capitalises.
A model of frustrating honesty — ten course-and-distance runs without ever finishing in the front two, despite matching the field's best time of 29.60 at her peak. She's been running at A5 recently, so the drop back to A6 is a plus, and her mid-pack finishes there read fine for this level. But a dog who never wins here is a dog who never wins here, and her recent clockings have been well off her best. Thereabouts again without troubling the judge looks the likeliest script.
Battled to a string of placings at A7 earlier in the summer — second, third and fourth in consecutive weeks — but the move up to A6 has found him out a little, with two modest efforts since. His ratings have lived in the low-to-mid 40s all year, the slowest sustained level in this field bar one, and now he draws trap 6, which wins fewer than one race in ten at this grade. Honest as the day is long; just short of the pace and in the wrong box to hide it.
Shares the fastest best time in the field at 29.60, but that figure is ancient history on current evidence — she was beaten out of sight at this grade last week, her last clocking was over a second off that best, and her ratings have fallen from 65 to 37 across her last four runs. Ten course-and-distance starts without a win complete the picture. Trap 3 is a fair box and the engine was clearly there once; nothing about the last month suggests it's coming back this week.
Draws the statistically best box at this grade — trap 2 wins nearly 19% — but that's where the good news ends. Just four career runs, none producing a win or a placing, the slowest best time in the field by a third of a second, and a rating of 42 last week that was among the weakest efforts at the grade. Four runs is too few to write any dog off permanently, and young dogs improve in leaps, but she'd need the leap of the season to trouble this field.
Key insight: A quiet-signal grade: top-rated wins 18.5% (119 runs) and the fastest dog only 13.8%. Trap 2 best at 18.6%, trap 6 worst at 9.3%. Ratings gaps matter more than ranks here.
T1:14.1% T2:18.6% T3:14.2% T4:11.4% T5:13.6% T6:9.3%
705 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 350m | 400m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rossie Fifi | 0.565 | 0.558 | 0.575 |
| 2 | Liffeyside Alder | — | — | 0.579 |
| 3 | Bawn Willow | — | — | 0.576 |
| 4 | Beebolt Daisy | — | — | 0.571 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.