| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salems Camparib 1y 17 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 43 | 48 (5) | 45 (5) | 47 (5) | 53 (4) | 76 (1) | 65 (2) | 73 (1) | 72 (1) | 59 (2) | - | 35 | 50 | 53 | 36 | 56 | 51 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Shesomethingelsb 4y 55 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 35 | 40 | 31 (6) | 24 (4) | 24 (4) | 28 (3) | 24 (6) | 42 (3) | 72 (4) | 34 (1) | - | - | 39 | 40 | 50 | 39 | 46 | 28 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Foxrock Alfied 2y 5 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 51 | 53 (2) | 47 (3) | 66 (1) | 54 (2) | 39 (4) | 56 (2) | 46 (5) | 35 (6) | 67 (2) | 67 (1) | 46 | 39 | 22 | 42 | 53 | 46 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Moaning Mayb 2y 37 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 56 | 30 (3) | 71 (4) | 55 (2) | 28 (4) | 49 (4) | 22 (5) | 62 (2) | 40 (1) | 25 (4) | - | 14 | 38 | 37 | 35 | 60 | 34 | 3 | 9/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Valley Rockstarb 2y 8 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 56 | 54 (2) | 72 (1) | 57 (2) | 61 (3) | 39 (6) | 53 (3) | 72 (1) | 74 (1) | 53 (3) | 66 (1) | 59 | 50 | 51 | 53 | 59 | 56 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salems Campari | 26.63 | 27.16 | 27.29 | 61 | +0.66 | Fastest, slow break | |
| 6 | Valley Rockstar | 26.83 | 27.19 | 27.45 | 56 | +0.62 | 4 C&D wins | |
| 3 | Foxrock Alfie | 26.94 | 27.42 | 27.85 | 47 | +0.91 | 8 of 10 placed | |
| 2 | Shesomethingels | 27.04 | 27.61 | 28.21 | 35 | +1.17 | Slowest on clock | |
| 5 | Moaning May | 27.09 | 27.31 | 27.09 | 48 | 0.00 | Volatile form |
Four tight bends over Harlow's 415 metres, where the first bend is the most decisive in the country — the best-bending dog wins nearly 29% of these — and ground saved early compounds all the way round. At A6 grade the wide draw is the one to have: trap six wins 21.6% from 2,821 runs while trap one, perhaps surprisingly, is among the weakest at 17.4%. The shape sets up beautifully for Valley Rockstar, the only genuine front-runner in the race, breaking from the best box with nobody obviously quick enough to take him on early. Salems Campari and Foxrock Alfie both like to come from off the pace, so if Rockstar gets an uncontested lead into the first turn this could be over very quickly. The strong finishers need him to falter or get crowded early.
The race sets up perfectly for him. He is the only confirmed front-runner in the field at a track where the first bend decides more races than anywhere else in the country, he breaks from trap six — the best box at this grade, winning 21.6% — and his course and distance record is outstanding: four wins and six top-two finishes from ten attempts. He was second here last week and ran a 72-rated race the time before, form that stands up well against anything in this line-up. With the two most talented rivals both slow starters, he should get the uncontested lead this track rewards so heavily, and from there he takes plenty of catching.
The classiest dog in the race on the stopwatch — his 26.63 best over course and distance is two lengths clear of anything else here, he is the fastest in the field on ratings, and he drops back to A6 having spent the last month in A5 company. Three wins and five places from ten course and distance runs. The problem is the first hundred metres: he is slow into stride and does his best work late, and trap one at this grade wins a modest 17.4%. If he gets a clear run up the rail while the leaders tire he wins this — but at Harlow, giving a front-runner first run at the bend is how good dogs get beaten.
The model of consistency — eight of his ten course and distance starts have ended in the first two, including a second here last week, and he ran a 66-rated race three starts back. He is versatile, able to race prominently or come off the pace, and trap three is a fair box at this grade at 19.3%. What he lacks is a knockout blow: just two of those ten runs were wins, and his best time of 26.94 leaves him behind both the selection and Salems Campari on raw speed. The obvious each-way runner.
Hard to recommend on current form. She was last of six here on her latest start, most of her recent racing has been over the 238-metre sprint at D-grades rather than this four-bend trip, and her ratings have been stuck in the 20s and low 30s for weeks. There is a 72-rated run in her back form and she has won twice in four course and distance starts, so track ability exists, but she is the slowest in this field on the clock by a wide margin and her latest 28.21 was seven lengths off her own best. Needs sharp improvement from somewhere.
The puzzle of the race. Her performance average is the best in the field and she ran a 71-rated race in open-class company two starts back — genuinely smart form for an A6. But she is wildly inconsistent, mixing those peaks with runs in the 20s, her last start was over the sprint trip, and she has drawn trap five, the worst box at this grade at 16.8%. One win and three places from four course and distance runs show she handles the track. If the good version turns up she beats these; the catch is you never know which version is getting in the traps.
Key insight: A6 over 415m is one of the more open Harlow conditions — the top-rated dog wins just 20.7% and the ranks barely separate. Trap 6 (21.6%) is the best box and trap 5 (16.8%) the worst. With the numbers this flat, running style and first-bend position carry extra weight. 2,821 runs.
T1:17.4% T2:19.3% T3:19.3% T4:17.7% T5:16.8% T6:21.6%
2,821 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salems Campari | 41 | 86 | Closer |
2Shesomethingels | 43 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Foxrock Alfie | 50 | 46 | All-Rounder |
5Moaning May | 52 | 45 | All-Rounder |
6Valley Rockstar | 56 | 53 | Front Runner |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salems Campari | — | 0.654 |
| 2 | Shesomethingels | 0.664 | 0.665 |
| 3 | Foxrock Alfie | — | 0.661 |
| 5 | Moaning May | 0.662 | 0.658 |
| 6 | Valley Rockstar | — | 0.655 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.