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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyhill Mab 2y 26 | D K Hurlock — 19% R893 W174 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 34 | 73 (1) | 64 (2) | 34 (1) | 28 (2) | 60 (3) | 26 (3) | 33 (1) | 50 (3) | 67 (1) | 52 (2) | 47 | 37 | 17 | 39 | 62 | 44 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Moaning Tomd 1y 26 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 54 | 64 (2) | 68 (4) | 90 (1) | 27 (4) | 39 (1) | 35 (1) | 27 (3) | 30 (2) | 31 (2) | 34 (1) | 36 | 63 | 18 | 36 | 73 | 50 | 1 | 4/7F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Barrington Chapd 2y 26 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 50 | 77 (1) | 28 (2) | 47 (4) | 26 (5) | 26 (3) | 62 (3) | 47 (5) | 40 (5) | 44 (4) | 78 (1) | 48 | 41 | 31 | 25 | 57 | 43 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Royston Rocketd 4y 45 | P Clarke — 14% R438 W63 P229 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 56 | 29 (3) | 63 (3) | 51 (3) | 30 (3) | 52 (4) | 39 (1) | 28 (3) | 53 (4) | 28 (2) | 49 (5) | 36 | 40 | 35 | 20 | 54 | 37 | 4 | 11/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tinas Libertyb 3yN/R 23 | D K Hurlock — 19% R893 W174 P493 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 56 | 55 (4) | 68 (2) | 57 (3) | 33 (2) | 57 (3) | 64 (2) | 67 (2) | 72 (1) | 49 (4) | - | 52 | 52 | 16 | 25 | 61 | 45 | - | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moaning Tom | 26.70 | 26.95 | 27.07 | 57 | +0.37 | Open-class form | |
| 4 | Barrington Chap | 26.72 | 27.29 | 27.20 | 52 | +0.48 | Won last time | |
| 6 | Tinas Liberty | 26.89 | 27.13 | 27.53 | 48 | +0.64 | Best box + break | |
| 1 | Hollyhill Ma | 26.97 | 27.17 | 27.07 | 50 | +0.10 | Won last time | |
| 5 | Royston Rocket | 27.02 | 27.33 | 27.02 | 45 | 0.00 | 0 from 5 here |
The best race of the morning card — an A5 over Harlow's tight 415 metres, four bends where the first turn decides more races than at any other British track. The draw data from 2,061 A5 runs favours the wide boxes: trap six wins 23.2% with trap five the dead draw at 15%. Three last-time-out winners and a former open-class performer make this genuinely deep. Tinas Liberty has the sharpest break and the best box and will try to make every yard; Moaning Tom has the class and speed to track her and pounce; Hollyhill Ma and Barrington Chap, both winners last week, need the leaders to come back to them. If Tinas Liberty gets loose on the front end she is hard to peg back here — but Moaning Tom looks a level above these when he runs his race.
The class act of the race. His performance average is eleven points clear of anything else in the field, he ran a 90-rated race in open company last month, and he is both the fastest dog here on speed figures and the quickest on the clock with a 26.70 course and distance best. Second at this grade and trip on his latest start, and his three course and distance runs have all ended in the first two, including a win. The Whitton kennel is motoring at 26%. Trap two is a modest box at this grade and he will need to be alert early with Tinas Liberty flying up on his outside, but he is versatile enough to race prominently and simply has more engine than these. The standout on every major measure.
The shape of the race is hers to dictate — she has the sharpest break in the field, she loves to lead, and she gets trap six, the best box at this grade at 23.2%. Her form is rock-solid too: ratings between 55 and 68 in five of her last six, and nine course and distance runs of experience. The two knocks are a latest clocking of 27.53 that was well below her 26.89 best, and a tendency to weaken late — over four bends here that has left her with just one win from nine course and distance tries despite all the placings. If she steals an easy lead she could pinch this; more likely she sets it up for the selection.
Arrives in the form of her life — she won at A6 last week with a 73-rated career best and was a 64-rated second the run before. Two wins and four places from six course and distance starts is a tidy record, and the step up to A5 is earned rather than hopeful. She is a slow starter who relies on a strong finish, which makes trap one a mixed blessing: the rail saves her ground, but she needs gaps to appear on the inside at a track where slow breakers get buried at the first bend. Genuine improver with a live chance if the race gets messy up front.
Won this grade and trip last week with a 77-rated effort — on that number alone he wins this race. The problem is everything around it: his previous five runs read 28, 47, 26, 26 and 62, some of the most volatile form on the card, and you simply never know which dog turns up. His 26.72 best time is second only to the selection and trap four is a decent box at this grade at 20.9%. Two wins from seven course and distance starts. If last week was a corner turned he is a big player; if it was another spike he will be back in the 20s today.
Up against it on every count. He is winless and unplaced in five course and distance attempts, he has drawn trap five — the dead box at this grade, winning just 15% — and his latest start was a modest third over the sprint trip a grade lower. There was a 63-rated run at A6 last month that shows he is not hopeless, and the Clarke kennel ticks along at 24%, but his speed figures are the lowest in the field and this is the deepest race he has faced in a while. Needs several to falter.
Key insight: At A5 over 415m the fastest dog wins 23.2% and the top-rated 22.4% — both solid signals. Trap 6 (23.2%) is the best box and trap 5 (15.0%) the worst by a wide margin. 2,061 runs.
T1:17.9% T2:18.1% T3:21.5% T4:20.9% T5:15.0% T6:23.2%
2,061 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 415m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hollyhill Ma | 30 | 95 | Closer |
2Moaning Tom | 55 | 58 | All-Rounder |
4Barrington Chap | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Royston Rocket | 50 | 45 | All-Rounder |
6Tinas Liberty | 57 | 34 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 415m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (415m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyhill Ma | 0.662 | 0.655 |
| 2 | Moaning Tom | 0.654 | 0.649 |
| 4 | Barrington Chap | 0.663 | 0.658 |
| 5 | Royston Rocket | 0.659 | 0.658 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.