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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Manic Mondayb 3y 8 | D F Carter — 13% R345 W45 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 39 (1) | 34 (1) | 22 (5) | 23 (4) | 31 (2) | 24 (5) | 25 (5) | 33 (4) | 28 (2) | - | 16 | 35 | 25 | 45 | 30 | 30 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Tickets Kingd 2y 15 | S A Clark — 20% R222 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 33 (2) | 28 (4) | 28 (4) | 39 (1) | 28 (3) | 34 (1) | 28 (2) | 28 (2) | 31 (1) | 19 (6) | 44 | 44 | 27 | 43 | 30 | 31 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballydaniel Dand 2y 6 | D R E Ellerker — 18% R722 W129 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 34 (1) | 27 (3) | 28 (3) | 25 (4) | 25 (4) | 33 (1) | 24 (5) | 32 (2) | 50 (4) | 57 (2) | 43 | 34 | 31 | 36 | 29 | 33 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ever So Tenderd 2y 25 | P Clarke — 14% R438 W63 P229 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 42 (4) | 45 (5) | 70 (1) | 24 (4) | 32 (2) | 40 (4) | 28 (1) | 20 (2) | 22 (6) | - | 30 | 33 | 20 | 34 | 28 | 24 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Ritzy Queenb 4y 15 | D B Whitton — 25% R293 W72 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 38 (1) | 39 (1) | 30 (3) | 47 (5) | 39 (2) | 30 (2) | 30 (3) | 40 (1) | 39 (1) | - | 47 | 47 | 51 | 62 | 36 | 40 | 2 | 11/10F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ritzy Queen | 15.29 | 15.52 | 15.73 | 56 | +0.44 | 4 C&D wins, best box | |
| 5 | Ever So Tender | 15.32 | 15.82 | 15.97 | 42 | +0.65 | Drops from 415m | |
| 2 | Manic Monday | 15.41 | 15.69 | 15.41 | 55 | 0.00 | Very slow break | |
| 3 | Tickets King | 15.47 | 15.75 | 15.81 | 48 | +0.34 | Dead box at D3 | |
| 4 | Ballydaniel Dan | 15.50 | 15.74 | 15.50 | 51 | 0.00 | Won last time |
A D3 sprint over Harlow's 238 metres — one bend, tight circuit, and at this grade the draw stats are the most lopsided on the card: trap six wins a remarkable 28.4% from the D3 sample of 1,768 runs, double the rate of the dead trap three at 14.4%. That matters enormously here because the best dog in the race has drawn the golden box. Ritzy Queen brings the sharpest break, the fastest times and a four-from-nine course and distance win record into a race where her draw wins nearly three in ten. Manic Monday, the other last-time-out winner, is desperately slow away and needs carnage at the bend; Tickets King is a model of consistency stuck in the worst box on the track. The script writes itself: Ritzy Queen pings the lids, leads at the bend, and the rest run for second.
Everything about this race points at her. She has won four of her nine course and distance starts — comfortably the best winning record in the field — including this grade last week, and her 15.29 best and 15.52 average are both the fastest times here. She owns the sharpest break and the best first-bend ability in the race, exactly what a one-bend dash rewards, and she has drawn trap six, which wins an extraordinary 28.4% at this grade — the strongest draw bias at any Harlow condition. The Whitton kennel is flying at 26%. She does her best work early rather than late, but over 238 metres that is a feature, not a bug: the fade never gets time to bite. The clearest pick on the card.
Won at this grade last week in 15.41 — the second-fastest winning time anyone here has posted lately — and has hit the first two in seven of his nine course and distance starts. The figures say he belongs in the finish. The eye test says he does it the hard way: he is one of the slowest breakers you will see in sprint racing and gives every field a start, relying on a furious late run. Most of his recent racing was at D4 so he is proven at this level and above expectations. If the leader stumbles at the bend he is the one arriving fastest at the line.
The most consistent dog in the race — three wins and six top-two finishes from ten course and distance starts, and he has not run a bad race at this grade all summer, finishing second here last week. In any other box he would be a serious player. But he has drawn trap three, which at D3 over this trip is the worst draw on the track, winning just 14.4% — half the rate of the selection's box. His 15.47 best stands up well and he will likely be thereabouts again, but the draw stats at this exact grade are brutal on his chances of actually winning.
Steps up from D4 having won there last week in a quick 15.50, and his two wins from eight course and distance starts show he handles the track fine. He is more of a patient runner than a fast starter, though, and this race has a serious pace angle in it from the wide box that he cannot match early. Trap four is fair at 17.9% for the grade. His times put him a length or two behind the principals at their best, so he needs the step up in grade to bring improvement rather than exposure.
The class wildcard — she ran a 70-rated race in A6 company over 415 metres last month, form far beyond anything else in this field, and her 15.32 sprint best is second-fastest here. But she has been racing over four bends lately and drops back to the dash off the back of three straight runs at the longer trip, her sprint record is one win from seven course and distance tries, and trap five wins just 16.4% at this grade. Decent early pace should have her handy at the bend. If the switch back to sprinting sparks her she is dangerous; her actual sprint results say she is better over further.
Key insight: Trap 6 wins 28.4% at D3 over 238m — the strongest trap bias at any Harlow grade, double the rate of dead trap 3 (14.4%). The fastest dog wins 22.2%. When the fastest dog IS the trap 6 dog, the signals compound powerfully. 1,768 runs.
T1:17.1% T2:17.8% T3:14.4% T4:17.9% T5:16.4% T6:28.4%
1,768 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 238m | 415m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manic Monday | 0.659 | — |
| 3 | Tickets King | 0.662 | — |
| 4 | Ballydaniel Dan | 0.661 | 0.663 |
| 5 | Ever So Tender | 0.665 | 0.663 |
| 6 | Ritzy Queen | 0.652 | 0.665 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.