The model's top pick and drawn in trap 1, but he's a confirmed closer with a closing speed ratio of 75 - the best in the field for finishing but the wrong profile entirely for a 260-metre dash where there's simply no time to make up ground once the leaders are clear. Form has been steady without being exciting (25,22,24,32,25,24), and trap 1 has actually been one of the weaker boxes in this grade at just 15.3%. Hard to fancy at this trip regardless of what the model says.

Has the highest recorded early pace figure in the field at 67, which matters enormously at this trip, but he's a fader who tends to lose ground late (closing speed ratio of just 36) and he's drawn in trap 4 - comfortably the worst box in this D5 sample at 13.8%. He did win from trap 5 last month, showing he can get the job done when the draw helps, but this looks the wrong box for him today.

Sits in a solid trap - trap 5 has been the second-strongest box in this D5 sample at 22.3% - but her recent form has been modest, with performance ratings in the low twenties and no wins from her last ten runs at this exact trip. Her trainer's 28% strike rate is a small positive. Needs more than the draw to trouble the front two here.

Gets the statistically best box in this D5 sample - trap 6 has won 24.3% of races at this trip and grade - but the form doesn't inspire much confidence, with the lowest performance ratings and the slowest recorded times in this field. She has managed one course-and-distance win from ten runs, so she's not entirely without hope if the draw does the work for her, but she looks to need the run of the race.