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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Bells Babeb 3y 19 | D S Davy — 21% R435 W93 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 55 | 67 (3) | 70 (3) | 59 (5) | 61 (4) | 30 (5) | 26 (5) | 67 (2) | 54 (4) | 85 (1) | 23 (1) | 53 | 42 | 29 | 31 | 63 | 52 | 1 | 8/11F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballyroe Buckeyed 4y 35 | J A Danahar — 18% R332 W61 P189 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 40 (4) | 76 (1) | 58 (4) | 55 (3) | 60 (3) | 52 (4) | 68 (2) | 77 (1) | 53 (4) | 54 (4) | 33 | 28 | 30 | 36 | 63 | 44 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Puckane Ceolb 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 51 | 55 (2) | 61 (3) | 76 (1) | 44 (4) | 62 (2) | 66 (3) | 53 (4) | 68 (2) | 70 (2) | 68 (2) | 32 | 27 | 19 | 32 | 62 | 40 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Constitutionb 1y 26 | F Bryce — 30% R80 W24 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 46 | 58 (5) | 81 (1) | 56 (4) | 81 (1) | 75 (1) | 59 (4) | 53 (5) | 52 (3) | 59 (3) | 74 (1) | 43 | 55 | 28 | 41 | 66 | 42 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Crokers Oceand 2y 19 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 56 | 80 (1) | 67 (4) | 52 (6) | 64 (4) | 64 (4) | 81 (1) | 74 (2) | 62 (3) | 54 (4) | 55 (5) | 34 | 39 | 31 | 34 | 67 | 48 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Livingonaprayerb 3yN/R 14 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 18 (5) | 14 (6) | 19 (5) | 19 (5) | 18 (6) | 22 (4) | 22 (5) | 30 (1) | 24 (2) | 18 (5) | 31 | 15 | - | - | 19 | 41 | - | - | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bells Babe | 28.63 | 28.86 | 28.63 | 59 | 0.00 | Model pick, top speed | |
| 2 | Ballyroe Buckeye | 28.70 | 29.14 | 28.90 | 48 | +0.20 | Won last time out | |
| 3 | Puckane Ceol | 28.82 | 29.07 | 29.00 | 46 | +0.18 | Weak trap (14%) | |
| 4 | Constitution | 28.62 | 29.14 | 29.15 | 45 | +0.53 | Fastest raw time | |
| 5 | Crokers Ocean | 28.66 | 29.02 | 28.84 | 52 | +0.18 | Won last time out | |
| 6 | Livingonaprayer | All recent form is at 260m - never raced this trip. Times not comparable. | — | No 460m form | ||||
Valley's 460m trip is a tight track with a short run to the first bend, and in this A4 sample trap 6 has been by far the best box at 26.1% - the widest draw avoiding the scrimmage into the first turn - while trap 3 has been the weakest at 14.2%. Bells Babe holds the rail in trap 1 but backs up her draw with both the highest composite rating and the fastest speed figure in the field, a combination that's been reliable at this grade (the top-rated dog wins 24.1% here). She's a fader who goes forward and needs to survive being reeled in late, and the danger comes from Crokers Ocean, who won impressively last time out and owns the best average performance of anyone in this race. Livingonaprayer steps up sharply from sprinting at a lower grade and has no form at all over this trip - she looks the one to leave out.
Tops both the ratings and the speed figures in this field - the strongest possible combination - and she's proven at this exact track and trip with two wins from her last eight course-and-distance runs. She goes forward and can fade late (closing speed ratio of 43), but her recent form has been solid and progressive (form of 67,70,59,61,30,26 - peaking at 70 two runs back), showing she's found a level that suits. Trap 1 isn't the strongest box in this grade, but when the pace and the rating both point the same way it's hard to leave her out.
Won impressively last time out and owns the best average performance rating of anyone in this field, with a career-high effort in that latest run. She goes forward with genuine pace (the highest early pace figure in the race) but does fade in the closing stages, so she needs to open up a break rather than get caught in a fight to the line. Trap 5 is only moderate here (16.3%), but the sheer weight of current form makes her the clearest threat to the top pick.
Won last time out and has been in good order all summer, with three wins from her last ten course-and-distance runs. She's a balanced all-rounder rather than an out-and-out pace merchant, which suits a track where the run to the first bend is short. Trap 2 is only moderate here (18.7%), and on both speed and rating she sits behind the leading pair, but she's not without claims if they falter.
A closer who's been solid without threatening to win, placed third last time out. Trap 3 is the weakest box in this grade at just 14.2%, which is a real obstacle given she needs to be produced late rather than winning it up front. Her trainer's modest 12% strike rate doesn't add confidence either. Others have stronger claims.
Actually owns the fastest raw recorded time in the field, though her overall speed rating sits lower once adjusted for the whole race sample. She's dropping in from A2 company after a below-par run there, and her course-and-distance record is strong with four wins from ten runs - proven at this track and trip when fresh. Trap 4 has been one of the weaker boxes here at 14.9%, which counts against her, but the raw pace can't be ignored.
Steps up sharply here, having been racing exclusively over the sprint trip at a lower grade, and has no recorded form at all over 460 metres - both her track and distance suitability scores sit at zero. Trap 6 has been the standout box in this A4 sample at 26.1%, which offers a sliver of hope from the draw, but jumping in class and nearly doubling the distance in one move is a huge ask. Very hard to trust off this profile.
Key insight: Trap 6 is a standout at A4 460m, winning 26.1% - well clear of every other box. The composite's top pick also performs solidly at this grade (24.1%).
T1:16.7% T2:18.7% T3:14.2% T4:14.9% T5:16.3% T6:26.1%
1,324 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Bells Babe | 59 | 43 | Fader |
2Ballyroe Buckeye | 48 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Puckane Ceol | 50 | 55 | Closer |
4Constitution | 46 | 53 | All-Rounder |
5Crokers Ocean | 63 | 31 | Fader |
6Livingonaprayer | — | — | No data |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bells Babe | 0.635 | 0.627 |
| 2 | Ballyroe Buckeye | — | 0.636 |
| 3 | Puckane Ceol | — | 0.633 |
| 4 | Constitution | — | 0.633 |
| 5 | Crokers Ocean | — | 0.631 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.