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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Optic Bucksd 4yN/R 36 | D S Davy — 21% R435 W93 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 47 | 50 (5) | 65 (2) | 57 (4) | 56 (4) | 65 (3) | 76 (2) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | 80 (1) | 68 (4) | 5 | 46 | 25 | 28 | 63 | 45 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fiercenessd 1y 6 | F Bryce — 30% R80 W24 P49 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 33 (6) | 60 (2) | 75 (1) | 57 (4) | 48 (4) | 59 (3) | 60 (2) | 51 (4) | 30 (6) | 70 (1) | 20 | 32 | 23 | 36 | 58 | 45 | 1 | 8/15F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Rollaway Willowb 2y 8 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 66 | 30 (2) | 52 (4) | 29 (6) | 71 (1) | 38 (6) | 44 (5) | 47 (5) | 53 (4) | 73 (1) | 58 (2) | 24 | 39 | 34 | 25 | 50 | 41 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Zarinab 4y 24 | M J May — 0% R29 W0 P12 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 53 | 26 (2) | 25 (2) | 25 (3) | 44 (4) | 34 (1) | 62 (3) | 74 (2) | 59 (3) | 27 (3) | 56 (2) | 42 | 40 | 16 | 14 | 57 | 44 | 3 | 14/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Hugod 4y 23 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 51 | 54 (4) | 47 (4) | 53 (4) | 34 (1) | 57 (2) | 65 (2) | 24 (3) | 38 (6) | 62 (3) | 42 (5) | 26 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 51 | 40 | 5 | 10/3 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Crokers Ciand 2y 16 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 47 | 57 (3) | 75 (1) | 59 (2) | 74 (1) | 58 (4) | 57 (3) | 71 (1) | 71 (1) | 38 (6) | 69 (1) | 34 | 39 | 25 | 46 | 64 | 49 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Optic Bucks | 28.61 | 28.97 | 29.16 | 63 | +0.55 | Fastest in field | |
| 2 | Fierceness | 28.80 | 29.37 | 29.18 | 52 | +0.38 | Weak trap (14%) | |
| 3 | Rollaway Willow | 29.03 | 29.48 | 29.48 | 42 | +0.45 | Fader, weak CSR | |
| 4 | Zarina | 28.74 | 29.15 | 29.66 | 50 | +0.92 | No 460m form since Mar | |
| 5 | Hawkfield Hugo | 28.96 | 29.39 | 29.54 | 44 | +0.58 | Modest form | |
| 6 | Crokers Cian | 28.97 | 29.20 | 29.22 | 53 | +0.25 | Model pick, strong C&D |
Valley's 460-metre trip is run on a tight circuit with a short dash to the first bend, and this A5 sample shows trap 1 clearly the best box at 23.7% from 177 runs, with trap 2 (14.3%) and trap 4 (14.4%) the ones to avoid. Optic Bucks gets the plum draw in trap 1 and backs it up as the fastest dog on the clock in this field, with the best closing speed ratio to match - he should be right in this from flag fall to line. Crokers Cian, out wide in trap 6, does his best work from off the pace and has the strongest recent record at this exact track and trip of anyone here, so he's the obvious one to beat the selection home. Rollaway Willow has the raw early speed to lead but her poor closing figures suggest she won't hold on if the pace is strong.
Drawn in the best box in the field - trap 1 has won 23.7% of A5 races over this trip, comfortably the strongest trap in the sample - and he backs that up as the fastest dog on the clock, with a recorded time nearly four tenths quicker than his nearest rival. Coming down in class from A4 after a below-par run, and the improving trajectory (form of 50,65,57,56,65,76 - peaked at 76 two runs back) shows genuine capability when things click. The closing speed ratio of 72 is the best in the race, so even racing as a closer he has the pace and the trap to make it count on a track where the inside box matters. The pick.
Sits on top of the ratings here and has been racing in tremendous form at this exact track and trip - four wins from his last ten runs over course and distance, including back-to-back victories in early June. Last time out he was only run down for third having been prominent for much of the race, and the finishing kick that's been a feature of his recent form (form of 57,75,59,74,58,57 - peaks at 75 and rarely dips below the mid-50s) makes him a big danger to the top pick. Trap 6 has been the second-best box in this grade at 19.2%, so the draw is no problem either. The one most likely to beat the selection.
An all-rounder who's been racing well without quite getting his head in front recently - second last time out and rarely too far away over the last six runs. Trap 2 has been one of the weaker boxes in this grade at just 14.3%, which counts against him from a draw perspective, but his trainer's 32% strike rate is the best in this field and hints the yard is doing something right with him. Others have stronger claims on the card, but he won't be far away if things fall right.
A fast-away type with plenty of early pace but a real tendency to fade in the closing stages, shown by a closing speed ratio of just 18 - the weakest in this field by some distance. Form has been volatile (52,29,71,38,44,47) but there's a big performance in there three runs back, so she isn't without ability on her day. Trap 3 is only moderate here at 18.8%, and with both the composite rating and speed well behind the leaders, she looks held on what she's shown recently.
Has been shuttling between the sprint distance and this trip, and hasn't raced over 460 metres at this track since early March - a four-month gap that raises a genuine question over whether she's tuned to the longer distance right now. Her recent form has come mostly at 260 metres, including a promising early-pace effort last time out, but that doesn't translate directly to this stiffer test. Trap 4 has also been one of the poorest boxes in this grade at just 14.4%, adding to the case against.
Been in and around minor places without threatening to win, with a modest average performance and the second-slowest recorded time in this field. Trap 5 has actually performed reasonably well here at 21.0%, which offers some hope from the draw, but on both speed and recent form he sits towards the back of this group. Needs the leaders to come back to him rather than winning it outright.
Key insight: Trap 1 is clearly the best box at A5 460m (23.7% from 177 runs) and the composite's top pick has a big edge over the second favourite (29.0% vs 17.1%) - one of the stronger composite signals at this track.
T1:23.7% T2:14.3% T3:18.8% T4:14.4% T5:21.0% T6:19.2%
1,151 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Optic Bucks | 49 | 72 | Closer |
2Fierceness | 47 | 52 | All-Rounder |
3Rollaway Willow | 63 | 18 | Fader |
4Zarina | 54 | 48 | All-Rounder |
5Hawkfield Hugo | 51 | 44 | All-Rounder |
6Crokers Cian | 47 | 61 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fierceness | — | 0.639 |
| 3 | Rollaway Willow | 0.642 | 0.641 |
| 4 | Zarina | 0.637 | 0.633 |
| 5 | Hawkfield Hugo | 0.636 | 0.638 |
| 6 | Crokers Cian | — | 0.635 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.