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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Final Sapphireb 1y 16 | P Meek — 19% R83 W16 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 45 | 75 (1) | 57 (3) | 41 (5) | 52 (4) | 50 (4) | 61 (3) | 72 (2) | 63 (3) | 59 (3) | 59 (3) | 27 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 59 | 45 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Keelans Dollyb 2y 6 | R Lambe — 26% R124 W32 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 46 | 67 (2) | 71 (1) | 43 (5) | 12 (6) | 73 (1) | 59 (2) | 44 (4) | 58 (2) | 70 (1) | - | 47 | 59 | 37 | 57 | 56 | 54 | 1 | 11/8F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mr Fraserd 2y 14 | R L Hill — 9% R65 W6 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 45 | 45 (5) | 65 (3) | 62 (2) | 56 (4) | 57 (4) | 86 (3) | 88 (1) | 49 (4) | 59 (2) | 75 (1) | 25 | 10 | 23 | 10 | 62 | 42 | 5 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Cross Keys Maggyb 4yN/R 34 | P A Holder — 14% R112 W16 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 53 | 47 (5) | 48 (5) | 54 (4) | 50 (5) | 56 (5) | 68 (3) | 76 (1) | 54 (4) | 49 (4) | 50 (5) | 38 | 35 | 12 | 14 | 54 | 36 | - | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lemon Rogued 2y 17 | I E Walker — 16% R223 W35 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 49 | 60 (3) | 58 (3) | 71 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 24 | 23 | 6 | 20 | 62 | 45 | 2 | 9/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Eyrehill Samsond 2y 8 | I E Walker — 16% R223 W35 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 52 | 68 (2) | 60 (4) | 68 (2) | 61 (3) | 60 (3) | 64 (2) | 63 (4) | 44 (6) | 73 (2) | 59 (4) | 25 | 25 | 20 | 25 | 63 | 49 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Final Sapphire | 28.91 | 29.17 | 29.08 | 52 | +0.17 | ||
| 6 | Eyrehill Samson | 28.92 | 29.12 | 29.10 | 52 | +0.18 | ||
| 2 | Keelans Dolly | 28.93 | 29.17 | 28.96 | 53 | +0.03 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Cross Keys Maggy | 28.95 | 29.25 | 29.91 | 37 | +0.96 | ||
| 3 | Mr Fraser | 29.03 | 29.22 | 29.54 | 42 | +0.51 | ||
| 5 | Lemon Rogue | 29.15 | 29.18 | 29.18 | 46 | +0.03 |
The second 480-metre A4 race on the card, using the same condition data — speed rank 1 wins 25.3% from 1,154 runs, trap 3 is the best box at 22.9%, trap 1 the worst at 13%. This is an intriguing race with several talented dogs in poor draws. Keelans Dolly has the fastest speed and the best trainer in Lambe (32%), but trap 2 is weak at just 14.9%. Final Sapphire won last time with a huge performance but is an extreme fader — early pace 98 and closing speed 0 — who could be caught. Eyrehill Samson has the highest average performance (63) but zero wins from 10 course and distance starts — the ultimate nearly-dog. This is a race full of flawed contenders.
The fastest dog in this field with a speed rating of 53, trained by Lambe at a 32% win rate — two meaningful edges in a race where speed dominates. Three wins from seven course and distance starts show she handles this track well, including recent form at A4 and A3 level. Her best time of 28.84 is the quickest in the field. The negative is trap 2, which wins just 14.9% at A4 grade — a clear structural weakness. But the combination of fastest speed and best trainer creates a two-signal stack that partially compensates for the draw. This is not a confident selection — the trap limits the upside — but in a race full of flawed contenders, she has more going for her than anyone else.
Won last time at A5 with a 75 rating — excellent recent form and steps up to A4 full of confidence. But her pace profile is one of the most extreme on the card: early pace of 98 and closing speed of just 0. She's a front-runner who either leads all the way or gets caught and collapses. At 480 metres, that fading profile is a real vulnerability — she'll blast out of the boxes and if anything is close at the bend, they'll run her down in the home straight. Trap 1 is also the worst box at A4 (13%), which means she needs to be clear early to have any chance. Two wins from five course and distance starts.
Drawn in trap 3, the best-performing box at A4 grade (22.9%), which gives her a structural advantage that most dogs in this race lack. But her recent form is very poor — ratings of 36 and 34 in her last two suggest she's well below the A4 standard right now. Average performance of 49 is the second-lowest in the field. Two wins from 10 course and distance starts, but those look like they came from better form. The trap is excellent but you can't win from the best box if you can't run fast enough. Needs a dramatic improvement.
Has the third-best speed in the field at 51 and trap 4 is reasonable at 18%. His average performance of 55 is middling. Recent form shows a 3rd and a 4th at A4 level — competitive without threatening to win. Two wins from nine course and distance starts. A solid dog who runs his race without ever dominating. The kind of runner who finishes 3rd more often than 1st. Could hit the frame but doesn't have the upside to win from this trap.
Won last time at A4 with a 64 rating — a solid performance that shows she belongs at this level. But her overall record at course and distance is poor — one win from 10 starts. Speed rating of 49 is below the best in the field. Trap 5 is middling at 17.4%. Her form before the last-time win was 46, 39, 51 — inconsistent and suggesting the victory may have been a purple patch rather than a new baseline. Could be competitive on the back of the last run but it's hard to string together an argument that makes her the pick.
A fascinating profile — the highest average performance in the field at 63, which would normally make him a serious contender. But zero wins from 10 course and distance starts tells you everything: he's the ultimate nearly-dog who gets close but never finishes the job. His speed rating of 42 is the slowest in the field, which at a track where speed rank 1 wins 25% is a massive disadvantage. Trap 6 is reasonable at 18.4%. Recent ratings of 63, 61, 64 are remarkably consistent — he's always there or thereabouts but never first past the post. At some point that win will come but his slowest-in-field speed rating makes it unlikely today.
Key insight: Speed rank 1 wins 25.33% from 267 runs. Trap 3 best at 22.94%, trap 1 worst at 12.97%.
T1:12.97% T2:14.88% T3:22.94% T4:18.02% T5:17.42% T6:18.4%
1,154 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Final Sapphire | 98 | 0 | Fader |
2Keelans Dolly | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Mr Fraser | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Cross Keys Maggy | 56 | 5 | Fader |
5Lemon Rogue | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
6Eyrehill Samson | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 450m | 480m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Final Sapphire | — | 0.633 | 0.608 | — |
| 2 | Keelans Dolly | — | — | 0.608 | 0.633 |
| 3 | Mr Fraser | 0.597 | 0.612 | 0.609 | — |
| 5 | Lemon Rogue | — | — | 0.608 | — |
| 6 | Eyrehill Samson | — | — | 0.607 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.