Arrives off a solid 70 rating last time at A4, showing he's competitive at this level. Has one win from nine course and distance starts. But trap 1 is the worst-performing box at A4 grade with just 13% of winners from 185 runs — that's a massive structural disadvantage. His speed rating of 44 is the second-weakest in the field. Even with decent recent form, the draw kills his chances in a statistical sense. Would need everything to go wrong for others.

A course and distance specialist with four wins from 10 starts — an impressive 40% strike rate that proves he loves this track configuration. But recent form tells a different story: ratings of 57, 54, 41, 50 in his last four show a clear decline from his peak. The 41 last time out was particularly poor. Trap 2 is also weak at this grade at just 14.9%. His proven course and distance record keeps him honest but the current trajectory is firmly downward and the draw doesn't help.

Has the highest average performance in the field at 58, which on paper makes her the most talented runner. But her form is inconsistent — a 47 last time followed by a 78 the run before shows she can be brilliant or terrible with nothing in between. Two wins from nine course and distance starts. The speed rating of 54 is second-best and the trap is reasonable at 17.4%. On her day she could beat anything in this field, but predicting which version turns up is impossible. A frustrating type who keeps you guessing.

Has been dropping through the grades recently from A3 to A4, and his form figures of 41, 46, 53 show a dog who's struggling to find his level. Trap 6 is reasonable at 18.4% for A4 grade, but his speed rating of 45 is below the best. Four wins from 10 course and distance starts proves he can win at this track, but none of those wins have been recent. A fader by pace style — starts fast but weakens — which at 480 metres is a concern. Needs to rediscover old form.