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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Limekiln Pamb 6y 13 | N P Ralph Jnr — 12% R52 W6 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 45 | 56 (2) | 50 (3) | 51 (3) | 60 (3) | 48 (5) | 57 (3) | 23 (5) | 49 (4) | 55 (4) | 64 (2) | 31 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 54 | 46 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mercia Ravend 1y 3 | K S Harrison — 18% R345 W62 P184 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 47 (4) | 62 (1) | 39 (5) | 47 (4) | 56 (2) | 39 (5) | 49 (4) | 41 (5) | 55 (2) | 61 (1) | 29 | 35 | 18 | 28 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 2/1F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Taffy Sarrugb 2y 6 | M T Field — 20% R229 W46 P119 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 55 | 58 (3) | 66 (2) | 49 (4) | 72 (3) | 67 (1) | 52 (3) | 45 (5) | 51 (4) | 66 (1) | 61 (1) | 19 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 59 | 50 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lemon Yolib 3y 5 | R Short — 25% R134 W33 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 51 | 41 (5) | 41 (5) | 67 (1) | 62 (1) | 47 (5) | 49 (4) | 52 (3) | 60 (2) | 58 (3) | 61 (1) | 9 | 33 | 23 | 30 | 52 | 43 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Shenanigan Dreamb 1y 18 | P Meek — 19% R83 W16 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 45 | 65 (1) | 60 (1) | 43 (6) | 33 (4) | 27 (3) | 31 (2) | - | - | - | - | 41 | 46 | 30 | 50 | 53 | 42 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Waitressb 2y 7 | K S Harrison — 18% R345 W62 P184 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 37 (5) | 52 (4) | 49 (4) | 56 (3) | 40 (6) | 61 (2) | 67 (1) | 43 (4) | 40 (5) | 33 (6) | 21 | 25 | 18 | 14 | 48 | 40 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swift Waitress | 29.19 | 29.53 | 29.80 | 47 | +0.61 | ||
| 3 | Taffy Sarrug | 29.21 | 29.37 | 29.36 | 57 | +0.15 | Model pick | |
| 1 | Limekiln Pam | 29.23 | 29.41 | 29.58 | 52 | +0.35 | ||
| 2 | Mercia Raven | 29.25 | 29.53 | 29.58 | 50 | +0.33 | ||
| 4 | Lemon Yoli | 29.27 | 29.45 | 29.74 | 48 | +0.47 | ||
| 5 | Shenanigan Dream | 29.60 | 29.60 | 29.60 | 42 | 0.00 |
Dunstall Park's 480-metre trip at A6 grade has 860 runs of data showing that speed is considerably more predictive than the composite — the fastest dog wins 24.1% versus just 17.8% for the top-rated composite dog. Trap 6 has been the best-performing box at 22.7%, while traps 2 and 3 are the weakest at around 14%. This is a race dominated by closers — three of the six runners come from behind — which should make for an interesting pace scenario. The early speed comes from Shenanigan Dream and Lemon Yoli, both of whom tend to weaken late, setting it up for the strong finishers. Taffy Sarrug has comfortably the best speed and form in the field but is drawn in the weakest trap. The question is whether her talent can overcome the draw.
Head and shoulders above this field on recent form with the fastest speed rating (57), the best average performance (59), and a peak of 72 from just four starts ago at S3 grade. Three wins from nine course and distance starts prove she knows how to win here. Tends to come from behind with devastating closing speed — she's the ultimate strong finisher who picks up the pieces when the early pace setters weaken. The big negative is trap 3, which is the worst-performing box at A6 grade with just 13.9% of winners. But the quality gap between this dog and the rest of the field is five points on average performance and five on speed — at a track where speed dominates, that matters more than the draw.
A fascinating profile — just two course and distance starts and she's won both of them, including a victory last time rated 65 at A6 grade. Has risen rapidly through the grades from D3 to A6 in a matter of weeks, which either marks her as a dog with untapped potential or one who's been found out by the handicapper. Shows sharp early pace but tends to weaken, which at 480 metres is a risk. Her speed rating of 42 is the weakest in the field, which is a concern given how important speed is at this track. But that perfect course and distance record and rising trajectory demand respect. Trainer Meek has a strong 26% record.
A consistent closer who tends to come from well off the pace and rely on a strong finishing kick. Has been running steadily at A5 and A6 level recently with ratings around the low 50s, but nine course and distance starts without a win is a concern. Her best time of 29.23 is competitive but she hasn't been near it recently — her last was 29.58. Trap 1 is middling at 17.4% for A6 grade. She'll need the pace to be strong to have any chance of getting involved.
Has two wins from 10 course and distance starts and peaked at 62 recently at A7 grade, but her form is volatile — ratings of 47, 62, 39, 47 show she can blow hot and cold. Drawn in trap 2, which is the second-worst box at this grade with just 13.9% of winners. A closer who needs traffic to slow down, and the draw works against her. Dropped from A5 recently where a 47 rating was disappointing.
Three wins from 10 course and distance starts shows she can win here, and she's raced at A5 and A6 level consistently. But recent form of 41, 41 is poor — two consecutive 5th-place finishes suggest she's out of form. Tends to show early pace but weakens in the closing stages, which at 480 metres can be punishing. A peak of 67 from four starts ago shows she's capable of much better, but she needs to find that level again.
Drawn in trap 6, the best-performing box at A6 grade at nearly 23%, which is a structural advantage. But her recent form doesn't inspire confidence — rated just 37 last time in 5th place, and her ratings have bounced between 37 and 61 with no consistency. Has one win from 10 course and distance starts. Shows some early pace but weakens, and her best time of 29.19 is actually the quickest in the field, suggesting there's ability to mine. The draw helps but the form doesn't.
Key insight: Speed rank 1 wins 24.1% from 195 runs, well ahead of composite at 17.8%. Trap 6 dominates at 22.73% from 132 runs. Traps 2 and 3 are structural weaknesses at under 14%.
T1:17.42% T2:13.89% T3:13.87% T4:17.27% T5:19.61% T6:22.73%
860 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Limekiln Pam | 43 | 93 | Closer |
2Mercia Raven | 45 | 78 | Closer |
3Taffy Sarrug | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Lemon Yoli | 55 | 22 | Fader |
5Shenanigan Dream | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Swift Waitress | 56 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 450m | 480m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Limekiln Pam | 0.617 | — | 0.613 | — |
| 2 | Mercia Raven | — | — | 0.615 | — |
| 3 | Taffy Sarrug | — | — | 0.612 | 0.628 |
| 4 | Lemon Yoli | — | — | 0.614 | — |
| 5 | Shenanigan Dream | 0.609 | 0.638 | 0.617 | — |
| 6 | Swift Waitress | — | — | 0.615 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.