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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Porthall Finnd 2y 5 | N M Slowley — 16% R92 W15 P44 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 44 | 27 (5) | 70 (2) | 64 (2) | 45 (6) | 47 (6) | 81 (1) | 65 (2) | 71 (3) | 70 (3) | 80 (1) | 43 | 38 | 65 | 43 | 64 | 53 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Lynnia Queenb 2y 15 | M T Field — 20% R229 W46 P119 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 56 | 71 (3) | 79 (1) | 77 (1) | 64 (5) | 48 (5) | 61 (4) | 58 (3) | 48 (5) | 84 (1) | 79 (1) | 38 | 43 | 45 | 38 | 68 | 53 | 1 | 2/1F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Yellowd 1y 27 | P A Holder — 14% R112 W16 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 45 | 66 (2) | 77 (1) | 71 (1) | 65 (2) | 56 (3) | 51 (4) | 38 (6) | 62 (3) | - | - | 31 | 34 | 18 | 43 | 64 | 45 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lovelandb 2y 17 | R Short — 25% R134 W33 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 49 | 53 (4) | 81 (1) | 52 (5) | 56 (4) | 80 (1) | 42 (6) | 55 (5) | 13 (5) | 72 (2) | 69 (2) | 21 | 32 | 40 | 28 | 59 | 42 | 6 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bullseye Bobd 3y 13 | S W Deakin — 15% R507 W78 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 49 | 48 (5) | 56 (5) | 81 (1) | 77 (1) | 54 (4) | 49 (5) | 59 (4) | 47 (6) | 77 (3) | 79 (3) | 16 | 31 | 19 | 27 | 61 | 41 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Millbank Got Itb 1y 16 | K S Harrison — 18% R345 W62 P184 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 55 | 76 (1) | 55 (4) | 69 (2) | 70 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 36 | 36 | - | 45 | 68 | 49 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Loveland | 28.78 | 29.06 | 29.47 | 45 | +0.69 | ||
| 1 | Porthall Finn | 28.80 | 28.99 | 28.88 | 55 | +0.08 | ||
| 2 | Lynnia Queen | 28.83 | 29.10 | 28.83 | 53 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Bullseye Bob | 28.87 | 29.13 | 29.48 | 42 | +0.61 | ||
| 3 | Swift Yellow | 28.88 | 29.15 | 28.88 | 50 | 0.00 | ||
| 6 | Millbank Got It | 28.93 | 29.14 | 29.05 | 47 | +0.12 |
Dunstall Park's 480-metre A3 grade has 1,230 runs of data. Speed rank 1 wins 24.3% — the strongest speed signal at any middle-distance grade at this track. Trap 3 is the worst box at a shocking 8.9%, while trap 6 leads at 20.6%. This is a high-quality race where every runner has proven form at A2-A4 level. Lynnia Queen stands out with the best course and distance record in the field — four wins from nine starts at a 44% strike rate — and drops from A2 where she was competitive. Porthall Finn has the best raw speed from the best trap. The race shapes up as a battle between proven course mastery and structural speed advantage, complicated by the extreme trap bias that essentially eliminates trap 3.
An exceptional course and distance record — four wins from nine starts at this track over this distance, a 44% strike rate that is staggering at A3 level. That's not luck; it's a dog who runs consistently well at this track configuration. Joint highest average performance in the field at 68, proving she has the class to match anyone here. Drops from A2 where she was competitive with ratings of 63 and 72. Drawn in trap 2, the best-performing box at A3 grade at 22.2%. Her best time of 28.70 is among the quickest. The only slight negative is a speed rating of 52 — fourth in this field — but her proven ability to win at this track repeatedly overrides the speed rank. When a dog wins 44% of the time at a specific track configuration, that's a profound edge that transcends any single statistical factor.
The fastest dog in this field with a speed rating of 57, drawn in trap 1 which is one of the strongest boxes at A3 (20.1% from 139 runs). That's a potent combination — speed rank 1 at a grade where the fastest dog wins 24.3% of the time, from a good draw. Has two wins from five course and distance starts. His recent form of 72, 57, 57 at A3 level shows consistent quality. Tends to come from behind, which means he needs the pace to be genuine early — and with several front-runners in this field, it should be. The only reason he's not the pick is Lynnia Queen's extraordinary course and distance record.
Decent form at A3 and A4 level with an average performance of 62, but drawn in trap 3 which is the kiss of death at A3 grade at Dunstall Park — just 8.9% of winners from 123 runs. That's barely above random chance and is the most extreme trap disadvantage on the card. Her speed rating of 50 is middling and she has two wins from 10 course and distance starts, but those wins almost certainly came from different draws. It doesn't matter how good she is from this box — the data says she has less than a 9% chance of winning. Hard to include her as anything other than a footnote.
A consistent A3-A4 performer with an average performance of 65 and a peak of 79 that shows real quality. Four wins from 10 course and distance starts — matching Lynnia Queen's win count — proves she knows how to win here. But trap 4 is middling at 16.3% and her speed rating of 49 is near the bottom of this field. Recent form of 66, 65, 73 is solid enough but she lacks the structural advantages of the top two. A reliable type who could pick up the pieces but needs the principals to falter.
The joint-highest average performance in the field at 68, matching Lynnia Queen, and her peak of 89 is the best in the race — a dog who can produce genuine top-class performances. Two wins from five course and distance starts. But her last run was a disappointment at just 51, and her form has been up and down — 72, 89, 66, 51 over the last four. Trap 5 is middling at 16%. The raw talent is there but the inconsistency prevents a stronger assessment. On her best day she's the best dog in the race; on her worst she's also-ran.
Has been in poor form recently with ratings of 57 and 44 from her last two starts — both below the A3 standard. Trap 6 is a strong draw at 20.6% for A3 grade, which is the main positive in her profile. Speed rating of 52 is middling. Three wins from 10 course and distance starts show she can win here, but the current trajectory is downward. At 11 years old in dog terms, she may be past her peak. The draw helps but the form doesn't support her.
Key insight: Speed rank 1 wins 24.26% from 272 runs — strongest speed signal at 480m. CRITICAL: Trap 3 is 8.94% — the worst trap at any A3 grade, a near-elimination box. Trap 1 and 2 both strong.
T1:20.14% T2:22.22% T3:8.94% T4:16.26% T5:16.0% T6:20.63%
1,230 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Porthall Finn | 53 | 41 | All-Rounder |
2Lynnia Queen | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Swift Yellow | 48 | 59 | Closer |
4Loveland | 26 | 100 | Closer |
5Bullseye Bob | 52 | 33 | All-Rounder |
6Millbank Got It | 62 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 480m | 500m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porthall Finn | 0.606 | 0.604 | — | — |
| 2 | Lynnia Queen | — | 0.606 | — | 0.626 |
| 3 | Swift Yellow | — | 0.607 | — | — |
| 4 | Loveland | — | 0.605 | 0.624 | — |
| 5 | Bullseye Bob | 0.595 | 0.607 | — | — |
| 6 | Millbank Got It | — | 0.607 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.