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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Pharis Pearlb 2y 5 | R Williams — 15% R296 W43 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 22 (6) | 29 (4) | 31 (2) | 26 (4) | 24 (5) | 30 (2) | 25 (5) | 37 (1) | 27 (4) | - | 23 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 3 | 7/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Porthall Flossb 2y 34 | N M Slowley — 16% R92 W15 P44 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 55 (4) | 68 (1) | 45 (5) | 63 (1) | 47 (3) | 30 (6) | 28 (2) | 32 (1) | - | - | 21 | - | 18 | - | 30 | 1 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Shortwood Mintb 2y 7 | J R Hall — 18% R308 W54 P161 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 30 (1) | 24 (4) | 20 (3) | 22 (4) | 20 (5) | 24 (2) | 23 (3) | - | - | - | 26 | 15 | 12 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 14/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Society Paddyd 3y 6 | S W Deakin — 15% R507 W78 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 28 (4) | 26 (4) | 21 (6) | 25 (4) | 18 (6) | 30 (2) | 28 (4) | 26 (5) | 28 (1) | - | 61 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 6 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Porthall Islandb 4y 16 | N M Slowley — 16% R92 W15 P44 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 25 (4) | 29 (2) | 51 (4) | 60 (5) | 82 (1) | 84 (1) | 80 (1) | 76 (1) | 63 (3) | 45 (6) | 58 | 40 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 24 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Roanna Maxid 2y 6 | R Williams — 15% R296 W43 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 31 (1) | 22 (4) | 26 (2) | 27 (3) | 26 (2) | 24 (4) | 21 (5) | 31 (2) | 29 (2) | 24 (5) | 29 | 27 | 22 | 35 | 26 | 28 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pharis Pearl | 16.21 | 16.52 | 16.68 | 54 | +0.47 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Porthall Floss | 16.26 | 16.36 | 16.47 | 60 | +0.21 | ||
| 5 | Porthall Island | 16.42 | 16.56 | 16.70 | 50 | +0.28 | ||
| 4 | Society Paddy | 16.45 | 16.67 | 16.57 | 49 | +0.12 | ||
| 6 | Roanna Maxi | 16.49 | 16.60 | 16.49 | 51 | 0.00 | ||
| 3 | Shortwood Mint | 16.68 | 16.85 | 16.68 | 40 | 0.00 |
The second 270-metre D3 sprint on the card uses the same condition data — speed rank 1 wins 23% from 1,410 runs, trap 2 best at 22.8%, trap 1 worst at 16%. This is a deeply confusing race with multiple distance switchers and an 11-month absentee. Porthall Floss has the highest speed rating at 60 but she's a 480m dog with zero 270m form and hasn't raced since August 2025 — that's purely a 480m speed number and meaningless at sprints. Porthall Island drops from A2 racing but has no sprint suitability. Among genuine sprint-form dogs, Pharis Pearl has the fastest speed at 54 and won at D4 last time. This is a weak field where nobody stands out, making it genuinely unpredictable.
Among dogs with genuine 270-metre sprint form, this is the fastest in the field with a speed rating of 54. Won last time at D4 with a 42 rating and steps up to D3 on the back of that victory. Her best sprint time of 16.33 is competitive and she won convincingly enough to suggest the step up in grade is merited. But trap 1 is the worst-performing box at D3 grade at just 16%, which undermines the speed advantage. Average performance of 25 is modest by any standard. This is a pick based on being the best of a weak bunch rather than any stacking conviction — the speed is there but the trap, the level of competition, and the modest form figures all create doubt. It's the type of race where backing anyone with confidence feels wrong.
Drops from A2 and A3 racing over 480 metres where she produced ratings of 80 and 61 — genuine top-class form at a significantly higher level. Now tries 270 metres at D3 which is a massive grade and distance change. Has zero 270m form so there's no way to know if she handles sprints. Her average performance of 50 at 480m suggests real talent, but sprint racing rewards box speed and raw early pace rather than the sustained effort she's proven at. Trap 5 is reasonable at 19.2%. A risky proposition — if the sprint suits her natural speed, she could demolish this field. If it doesn't, she'll be outpaced from the boxes.
On paper, the highest speed rating in the field at 60 and drawn in the best trap at D3 (trap 2, 22.8%). That looks like a compelling stack. But dig deeper and it falls apart — that speed rating is from 480-metre racing, not 270-metre sprints. She hasn't raced since August 2025 — an 11-month absence — and has zero course and distance wins from two attempts at 270m. The 480m speed simply doesn't translate to sprint races where early pace and box speed are everything. The long absence adds another layer of uncertainty. A dog returning from nearly a year off with no sprint form is essentially a new runner. The trap helps but the profile screams risk.
Has been competing at D3 level with two wins from 10 course and distance starts — the best strike rate among proven sprint runners. Her speed rating of 44 is modest and her recent form of 21 and 19 is very poor — she's clearly out of form. But those two course and distance wins prove she can win at this level, and at D3 sprints where form is unpredictable, a proven winner shouldn't be dismissed entirely. Trap 3 is middling at 16.7%. Needs a significant bounce to be involved.
Another distance switcher from 480-metre racing, now trying 270 metres where she has one win from nine course and distance starts. That single win proves she can do it, but the form has been inconsistent — recent ratings in the 20s and 30s are below par. Her speed rating of 46 is reasonable for a sprint dog. Trap 4 is the worst alongside trap 1 at 15.7%. The combination of a poor draw and inconsistent form limits her appeal despite the course and distance win.
Has three wins from 10 course and distance starts — the most proven sprint winner in this field along with Roseys Dream. But her recent form tells a grim story: rated just 14 and 18 in her last two, both 6th-place finishes, suggesting she's completely out of form. Her best days produced ratings of 36 and 40 which were competitive at D3, but she's running at a fraction of that level now. Trap 6 is middling at 16.4%. The three C&D wins demand some respect but the current trajectory is firmly negative. At some point a return to form comes, but betting on it here feels optimistic.
Key insight: Speed rank 1 wins 23.05% from 321 runs. Trap 2 best at 22.76%. Trap 1 worst at 15.98%.
T1:15.98% T2:22.76% T3:16.67% T4:15.68% T5:19.18% T6:16.39%
1,410 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 275m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pharis Pearl | 0.612 | — | — |
| 2 | Porthall Floss | — | 0.606 | 0.616 |
| 3 | Shortwood Mint | 0.624 | — | — |
| 4 | Society Paddy | 0.617 | — | — |
| 5 | Porthall Island | 0.613 | — | 0.606 |
| 6 | Roanna Maxi | 0.615 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.