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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hawkfield Cocob 4y 16 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 24 (3) | 23 (5) | 26 (4) | 28 (4) | 29 (2) | 31 (2) | 29 (2) | 33 (2) | 33 (1) | 22 (4) | 40 | 44 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 29 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Bale Out Lucyb 3y 16 | A L Jeffery — 19% R347 W67 P185 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 22 (4) | 24 (4) | 18 (5) | 29 (2) | 29 (2) | 23 (4) | 24 (5) | 26 (2) | 24 (5) | 33 (2) | 38 | 39 | 37 | 26 | 25 | 29 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Tobergal Suzanneb 3y 33 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | - | 17 (6) | 25 (6) | 24 (3) | 22 (4) | 30 (3) | 22 (1) | 22 (2) | 27 (4) | 16 (1) | - | 25 | 28 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 20/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Tagalong Jessb 3y 14 | D S Davy — 21% R435 W93 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 26 (2) | 24 (4) | 29 (2) | 28 (2) | 32 (1) | 31 (1) | 23 (3) | 24 (3) | 15 (6) | 12 (6) | 21 | 23 | 15 | 33 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Sunamib 3y 16 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 14 (6) | 25 (5) | 33 (1) | 29 (2) | 22 (5) | 31 (1) | 20 (5) | 24 (2) | 27 (2) | 19 (5) | 37 | 32 | 26 | 39 | 24 | 25 | 4 | 14/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Taxi Joed 4y 16 | C Darch — 22% R365 W79 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 25 (3) | 26 (3) | 31 (1) | 20 (5) | 25 (4) | 21 (5) | 29 (3) | 28 (3) | 26 (3) | 23 (2) | 31 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawkfield Coco | 16.38 | 16.59 | 16.78 | 55 | +0.40 | Extreme fader, weak trap | |
| 2 | Bale Out Lucy | 16.50 | 16.79 | 16.91 | 48 | +0.41 | Consistent, no wins | |
| 3 | Tobergal Suzanne | 16.66 | 16.92 | 17.25 | 38 | +0.59 | Off since June, weak | |
| 4 | Tagalong Jess | 16.48 | 16.84 | 16.76 | 49 | +0.28 | Modest form | |
| 5 | Hawkfield Sunami | 16.41 | 16.77 | 17.30 | 44 | +0.89 | Best trap but a closer | |
| 6 | Taxi Joe | 16.35 | 16.66 | 16.70 | 56 | +0.35 | Strong trap, fastest time |
Valley's 260-metre trip is one of the shortest sprints anywhere, with almost no time to make up lost ground once the leaders clear the first bend - trap and pace decide it more than raw rating. In this D4 sample trap 5 has been the best box at 22.4%, but the dog drawn there today, Hawkfield Sunami, is a confirmed closer - precisely the running style that struggles most at this trip, so the draw counts for little in her case. Taxi Joe, next best in trap 6 at 21.0%, owns the fastest recorded time in the field and looks the more trustworthy each-way type. Hawkfield Coco is the model's technical favourite but she's an extreme fader - blistering early speed that has historically collapsed to nothing late - and she's drawn in the weakest trap in the sample, a combination worth being wary of.
Gets the second-best box in this D4 sample - trap 6 has won 21.0% here - and owns both the fastest recorded time and the best average time of anyone in this field. He's been competitive without winning much lately, but the combination of a strong trap and the sharpest figures on the clock is exactly what matters most at this short, tight trip. One win from ten course-and-distance runs, but rarely too far off the pace.
Shares the top composite rating in this field and has been remarkably consistent, placed in the middle of the pack in nine of her last ten course-and-distance runs - though without ever quite getting to the line first. Trap 2 is only moderate here at 17.2%. Her trainer's 28% strike rate is among the best in the race. The most rounded case among the also-rans, and a real threat if she finally puts it together.
The model's technical favourite on rating, but the pace profile is a real worry - maximum early pace paired with a closing speed ratio of zero is the classic pattern of a dog that leads hard and simply has nothing left in the last third. Trap 1 has also been the weakest box in this D4 sample at 15.5%. One win from nine course-and-distance runs. The numbers look decent on paper but the running style and the draw both work against her at this trip.
Hasn't raced since early June, a six-week gap, and her figures were already towards the bottom of this type of field before that. Trap 3 is only moderate in this D4 sample at 16.8%. Two wins from ten course-and-distance runs, both some time ago. Hard to trust off the layoff and the modest form.
Steady if unspectacular, with two wins from her last ten course-and-distance runs and figures that sit in the middle of this field. Trap 4 is only fair in this D4 sample at 17.2%. Nothing stands out either for or against her - a fair each-way type in a wide-open contest.
Gets the statistically best box in this D4 sample - trap 5 has won 22.4% here - but she's a confirmed closer, finishing strongly from off the pace with a closing speed ratio of 100. That's the one running style that struggles most at this short trip, where there's simply no time to make up lost ground. Two wins from nine course-and-distance runs, but the pace profile works hard against the good draw.
Key insight: Trap 5 is the best box at D4 260m (22.4%), but that draw is occupied here by a confirmed closer - a pace profile that struggles badly at this trip regardless of the trap.
T1:15.5% T2:17.2% T3:16.8% T4:17.2% T5:22.4% T6:21.0%
2,325 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawkfield Coco | 0.639 | — |
| 2 | Bale Out Lucy | 0.647 | — |
| 3 | Tobergal Suzanne | 0.651 | — |
| 4 | Tagalong Jess | 0.646 | — |
| 5 | Hawkfield Sunami | 0.645 | 0.675 |
| 6 | Taxi Joe | 0.641 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.