A closer who was well beaten last time out and has struggled to convert good form into wins, with only one victory from nine course-and-distance runs. Trap 3 has been the weakest box in this Open sample at just 13.0%, adding to the case against. Her suitability scores are modest across the board.

Sits at the bottom of the field on every measure - the slowest recorded time, the lowest speed rating, and modest suitability scores throughout. One win from four course-and-distance runs is the extent of her case, and stepping up from A6 grade into this Open contest looks a significant leap. Hard to see her figuring.

Won last time out and owns the fastest raw recorded time in this field, running it from the front before fading in previous efforts. He's a fader who goes forward but tends to lose ground late (closing speed ratio 35), which is a slight concern at a tight track like this if the pace is strong. One win from eight course-and-distance runs, but the improving trajectory and that fast last-time performance keep him firmly in the picture.

The headline speed figure of 88 is the fastest in the race by a distance, but it comes from a single career run over 264 metres - not this 460m trip - and every suitability score for track, class and distance sits at zero. There's simply no evidence she can produce anything like that figure over nearly double the distance. An interesting watch for the future but too big an unknown to trust today.