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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lose Controld 2y 35 | S A Cahill — 21% R378 W81 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 28 (5) | 36 (1) | 24 (3) | 33 (2) | 32 (3) | 35 (2) | 30 (4) | 34 (2) | 34 (3) | 40 (1) | 42 | 37 | 22 | 19 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Romeo Havokd 4y 17 | D D Knight — 18% R234 W43 P136 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 43 | 61 (3) | 77 (1) | 66 (2) | 51 (4) | 54 (5) | 65 (3) | 69 (3) | 67 (3) | 52 (5) | 61 (2) | 33 | 35 | 32 | 33 | 63 | 52 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Digbys Maverickb 2y 6 | B S Green — 21% R422 W89 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 59 | 41 (4) | 69 (1) | 49 (4) | 54 (2) | 48 (3) | 36 (6) | 56 (3) | 71 (1) | 48 (4) | 47 (5) | 42 | 23 | 14 | 38 | 55 | 47 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Feora Carab 3y 18 | J J Heath — 21% R347 W72 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 58 (4) | 70 (2) | 56 (4) | 61 (3) | 62 (3) | 78 (2) | 100 (1) | 68 (3) | 65 (2) | 80 (1) | 38 | 38 | 23 | 28 | 67 | 52 | 1 | 7/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tuono Daved 2y 9 | D D Knight — 18% R234 W43 P136 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 51 | 53 (3) | 51 (4) | 71 (1) | 69 (1) | 34 (6) | 44 (5) | 45 (5) | 56 (2) | 48 (5) | 68 (1) | 41 | 40 | 7 | 41 | 55 | 46 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Romeo Havok | 29.88 | 30.11 | 29.88 | 55 | 0.00 | Won last time, in form | |
| 3 | Digbys Maverick | 29.99 | 30.39 | 30.19 | 46 | +0.20 | Steps up from A6 | |
| 4 | Feora Cara | 29.91 | 30.08 | 30.16 | 53 | +0.25 | Model's top pick | |
| 1 | Lose Control | No 500m form at all – every recent start has come over 285m at D grade. Times are not comparable and this is a huge step up in trip and grade. | — | 285m sprinter, no 500m form | ||||
| 6 | Tuono Dave | 29.97 | 30.32 | 30.41 | 42 | +0.44 | Slowest in the field | |
Hove's 500-metre trip is nominally a fair galloping test with a track-wide lean towards the inside boxes, but at this A4 level the pattern flips – trap six and trap one share the best figures at this exact grade, while trap two, home to the in-form Romeo Havok, has actually been the weakest performer of the six. It's a bumpy circuit where interference in the closing stages is common, which tends to reward a strong, settled stride over a flashy early one. Digbys Maverick has the best early pace and bend rating in this field and should look to dictate matters, with Feora Cara and Romeo Havok both closers who need the pace up front to be honest so they can arrive with a run. Lose Control is the wildcard, dropping in from a completely different sprint trip with no evidence at all that she stays this far.
Consistent rather than spectacular across her last six – 58, 70, 56, 61, 62, 78 in graded A3/A4 company throughout, with a 78 sitting six runs back showing a level well above what she's shown lately. Second-fastest in the field on the clock and owns the best average time of anyone here, suggesting she reproduces her pace reliably run to run. Trap four hasn't been a strong box at this exact grade and trip, sitting below the mid-point, and her trainer's record in these specific conditions is moderate rather than outstanding. The ratings have her tied for top spot with Romeo Havok, but neither has a clean structural edge over the other, which makes this closer to a coin-flip than the ratings alone suggest.
Won last time out with a career-best rating of 77, and the trend before that reads 66, 51, 54, 65, 69 – a genuinely improving pattern culminating in that victory, exactly the kind of dog in career-best form that shouldn't be dismissed. Fastest in the field on the clock and the only one whose last-time-out run matched his own personal best, showing he's racing at the very top of his current level right now. The one blemish is the box – trap two has actually been the weakest-performing draw at this exact grade and trip, which works against him, and his trainer's record in these conditions is modest. On pure form and speed alone, though, this is the one in the form of his life.
Every recent start has come over 285 metres in D-grade company, and today she tries 500 metres in A4 – nearly double the trip and a significant step up in class in one move. There is no form at all to suggest she stays this far, and no clock to compare against this field. Her trainer's overall figures are fair without being exceptional. This looks a serious experiment by connections, and until there's evidence she can settle and finish over the longer trip, she has to be treated as the outsider of outsiders here.
Won last time out down at A6 grade with a rating of 69, and steps back up two grades to this level today – a jump that needs a note of caution, though this is actually a return to a grade he's raced at before rather than a leap into the unknown. Carries the best early pace and first-bend rating of anyone in this field, which matters at a track where getting away cleanly and avoiding the first-bend scrum counts for a lot. Trainer B S Green has the strongest overall record of anyone in this race, even if the figure in these specific conditions is more modest. Trap three is a solid draw at this grade and trip. If he brings his A6-grade sharpness up a level, he's dangerous from the front, though the step up is the obvious question mark.
Form of 51, 71, 69, 34, 44, 45 in graded company at this level shows he can find a big effort on his day, with wins tucked in among his last six starts, but the two most recent runs have been modest. Comfortably the slowest in this field on both the clock and the speed figure, some way off the pace the top two are showing. Trap six is actually the best-performing box at this exact grade and trip, which is a point in his favour, but the raw pace deficit is hard to overlook against this particular field.
Key insight: The fastest dog in the field wins close to a quarter of the time at this exact grade and trip, noticeably more often than the top-rated dog on the ratings alone – with two runners tied on paper for top spot here, the clock is the tie-breaker that matters most.
Trap 6 23.2%, Trap 1 22.7%, Trap 3 21.9%, Trap 4 17.9%, Trap 2 17.0%, Trap 5 15.3%
1,486 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lose Control | — | — | No data |
2Romeo Havok | 45 | 83 | Closer |
3Digbys Maverick | 57 | 0 | Fader |
4Feora Cara | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Tuono Dave | 55 | 17 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 285m | 500m | 695m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lose Control | 0.591 | — | — |
| 2 | Romeo Havok | — | 0.602 | — |
| 3 | Digbys Maverick | — | 0.609 | — |
| 4 | Feora Cara | — | 0.602 | 0.613 |
| 6 | Tuono Dave | — | 0.607 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.