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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Sporting Pegasusd 4y 37 | S A Cahill — 21% R378 W81 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 47 | 55 (4) | 64 (3) | 75 (1) | 66 (3) | 68 (2) | 59 (3) | 53 (4) | 64 (2) | 70 (2) | 64 (3) | 33 | 31 | 17 | 27 | 64 | 44 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Backofthelineb 4y 35 | C Gardiner — 19% R341 W66 P178 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 43 (5) | 80 (1) | 44 (5) | 46 (5) | 48 (5) | 79 (1) | 53 (3) | 76 (1) | 67 (2) | 69 (2) | 34 | 30 | 25 | 42 | 60 | 44 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballydarley Jackd 4y 25 | D D Knight — 18% R234 W43 P136 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 50 | 70 (2) | 57 (4) | 77 (2) | 87 (1) | 88 (1) | 77 (4) | 67 (4) | 74 (3) | 70 (2) | 76 (2) | 52 | 49 | - | 45 | 74 | 40 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Rural Tend 1y 13 | J T Kingsley — 13% R118 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 49 | 53 (4) | 55 (4) | 77 (1) | 66 (2) | 71 (1) | 53 (3) | 66 (1) | - | - | - | 30 | 44 | - | 48 | 65 | 51 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tell On Oliviab 3y 17 | J T Kingsley — 13% R118 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 68 | 47 (5) | 67 (2) | 70 (2) | 51 (5) | 76 (3) | 59 (5) | 71 (2) | 84 (1) | 58 (5) | 70 (2) | 41 | 42 | 40 | 51 | 66 | 52 | 3 | 10/11F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ballydarley Jack | 29.67 | 29.88 | 29.93 | 56 | +0.26 | ||
| 6 | Tell On Olivia | 29.81 | 29.99 | 30.00 | 51 | +0.19 | Danger | |
| 4 | Rural Ten | 29.85 | 30.10 | 29.85 | 50 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Backoftheline | 29.86 | 30.25 | 29.86 | 47 | 0.00 | ||
| 1 | Sporting Pegasus | 29.86 | 30.04 | 30.17 | 46 | +0.31 |
Hove's 500m trip has a real inside lean built into it despite the fair-looking dimensions - trap one dominates the wider picture at over 23%, trap five the weak draw at around 15%, and the bumpy surface plus a difficult first bend catch out lighter-striding dogs. In this specific A3 heat trap three and trap two have been the standout boxes while trap five again lags behind. This is a well above-average field for the grade, with three of the five carrying serious class in their recent form - Tell On Olivia and Ballydarley Jack have both raced at open and A1 level within the last few months, well above tonight's company. Rural Ten looks the type to get back on the pace late having raced from off the pack recently, while Ballydarley Jack does his best work as a strong finisher too, meaning the closers may collide with each other in the final furlong if the pace up front doesn't hold up.
Finished fourth last time out having raced from off the pace and stepped up from open company in Ireland recently, a switch that brings her into slightly different surroundings but with genuine ability behind her given that background. She finishes strongly rather than racing prominently, and her most recent time matched her recorded best over the trip, showing there's no hidden reserve to find but no decline either. Trap four has been a decent draw in this exact grade, winning close to 22% of races, and the trainer's record in these conditions is a fair 21%, one of the better figures in this field alongside her main market rival. The profile of a strong finisher fits a track where the closing stages matter as much as the opening exchanges.
Runs with tremendous early speed and quickly gets to the front, tending to fade only late on, and finished second last time out at this same grade and trip after leading for most of the trip. Crucially, her recent form includes racing at open company and A2 level, well above tonight's A3 grade, which means she arrives with a genuine class edge over most of this field. Second fastest in the race on the clock and the trainer wins better than one in five in these conditions, a solid supporting figure. Trap six is only a middling draw at this grade, and running wide through the middle of the track can cost ground on this bumpy surface, but the class and the gate speed both work strongly in her favour.
A fascinating puzzle on the data - the fastest dog in this field by some distance and drawn in trap three, the single best-performing box in this exact grade at nearly 24%, and his recent form was earned at A1 level and in an even higher open-class stakes race, an enormous class edge over tonight's A3 company. He finishes powerfully from off the pace rather than racing up with the leaders. The one significant concern is the trainer's record in these conditions, which sits just below average - the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding profile. If the pace holds up enough for the strong finishers to get involved, the combination of speed, draw and class here is hard to ignore.
Won impressively last time out at this same grade and trip, leading throughout from the rails, a strong effort even allowing for some volatility in the form before it. Drawn in trap two, one of the better boxes in this specific grade at over 23%, and shows sharp early pace that should let her get across from the draw cleanly. The trainer's record in these conditions is the best of anyone in this field at over 26%, a genuine positive. Tends to fade in the closing stages after setting a fast pace, which could leave her vulnerable to the strong-finishing types drawn wider if the gallop is truly run. A career-best effort last time out is hard to ignore, and the draw and trainer both support another bold showing.
Finished fourth last time out at this same grade, continuing a recent dip in form after a much stronger run of placings a few starts back, though the peaks of 75, 68 and 66 in that spell show the ability is there when everything clicks. Races in a balanced style, capable of holding a position on the pace or coming from off it depending on how the race unfolds. Drawn in trap one, which has actually been one of the weaker boxes in this exact grade this time, sitting below the field average. The trainer's record in these conditions is fair without being outstanding. On the clock this isn't among the quickest here, sitting toward the rear of the field on recorded times, and the modest draw adds to the task facing this dog tonight.
Key insight: The top-rated dog only wins one in five races at this specific grade and trip - a below-par figure for an A3 heat - so the draw and the recent class each runner has faced matter more than usual tonight.
Trap 3: 23.7%, Trap 2: 23.2%, Trap 4: 21.8%, Trap 6: 18.7%, Trap 1: 17.3%, Trap 5: 12.4%
1,417 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Sporting Pegasus | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Backoftheline | 56 | 1 | Fader |
3Ballydarley Jack | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Rural Ten | 23 | 100 | Closer |
6Tell On Olivia | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 285m | 400m | 460m | 500m | 515m | 525m | 695m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Pegasus | — | — | — | 0.601 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Backoftheline | — | — | — | 0.605 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Ballydarley Jack | — | — | — | 0.599 | — | — | 0.619 |
| 4 | Rural Ten | — | — | — | 0.603 | 0.604 | 0.554 | — |
| 6 | Tell On Olivia | 0.589 | 0.609 | 0.606 | 0.601 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.