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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Droopys Favouritb 1y 7 | A J Taylor — 18% R293 W52 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 51 | 55 (2) | 44 (5) | 72 (1) | 54 (3) | 61 (2) | 51 (4) | 50 (4) | 47 (4) | 51 (5) | 45 (5) | 16 | 29 | 37 | 28 | 55 | 46 | 3 | 15/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Classic Buckod 4y 26 | C Gardiner — 19% R341 W66 P178 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 35 | 59 (2) | 49 (4) | 51 (4) | 55 (4) | 48 (5) | 43 (5) | 70 (2) | 79 (1) | 75 (1) | 48 (4) | 39 | 39 | 24 | 28 | 55 | 46 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilara Capaldid 2y 46 | J J Heath — 21% R347 W72 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 49 | 27 (6) | 46 (4) | 50 (5) | 58 (4) | 69 (1) | 49 (5) | 52 (3) | 43 (4) | 42 (5) | 63 (3) | 10 | 24 | 14 | 17 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 9/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Front Loadedd 4y 25 | J T Kingsley — 13% R118 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 53 | 54 (4) | 41 (5) | 52 (4) | 52 (3) | 44 (4) | 80 (1) | 56 (4) | 77 (1) | 69 (1) | 58 (2) | 39 | 35 | 17 | 30 | 56 | 46 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Pocket Hollieb 3y 9 | S A Cahill — 21% R378 W81 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 56 | 73 (1) | 51 (4) | 54 (4) | 63 (2) | 55 (3) | 45 (6) | 53 (5) | 70 (1) | 52 (3) | 65 (2) | 15 | 29 | 12 | 17 | 55 | 47 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Kates Bartd 3y 16 | R J Holloway — 17% R288 W50 P141 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 42 | 40 (5) | 42 (4) | 41 (5) | 69 (1) | 62 (2) | 47 (5) | 49 (4) | 46 (4) | 65 (1) | 37 (6) | 23 | 22 | - | 25 | 51 | 41 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Classic Bucko | 29.84 | 30.25 | 30.97 | 51 | +1.13 | Drops from A4 | |
| 4 | Front Loaded | 29.85 | 30.17 | 30.61 | 55 | +0.76 | Trainer hot at conditions | |
| 5 | Pocket Hollie | 29.89 | 30.28 | 30.42 | 55 | +0.53 | Best bend rating | |
| 6 | Kates Bart | 29.93 | 30.43 | 30.77 | 46 | +0.84 | Worst draw here | |
| 3 | Kilara Capaldi | 29.98 | 30.40 | 31.21 | 39 | +1.23 | Slowest in field | |
| 1 | Droopys Favourit | 30.07 | 30.33 | 30.39 | 52 | +0.32 | Model's top pick |
Hove's 500-metre trip is billed as a fair galloping test, but there is a genuine early draw bias built in – trap one dominates at roughly 23% track-wide with trap five the weak draw around 15%, and it's a bumpy circuit that rewards a firm, strong-striding sort who handles bend one calmly. In this specific A5 slice the pattern shifts slightly: trap three and trap one share top spot around 23%, while trap six is the one to leave alone at just 16%. There's no obvious hare in this line-up – three of the six are out-and-out closers who'll be doing their best work in the second half, while Pocket Hollie and Kates Bart carry the best early pace and look the most likely to lead into that first bend. If Pocket Hollie can get across cleanly from the wide-ish trap five box, the composite score and the speed figures both back her up. If she doesn't, the trio of closers stacked behind her – Droopys Favourit, Classic Bucko and Front Loaded – all have the finishing pace to scoop it up late.
Recent form from A5 grade throughout, all graded races, no trial contamination to worry about. Consistent rather than spectacular – form reads 51, 54, 63, 55, 45, 53 with a peak of 63 a few runs back, and she's never far away. Shares top spot for speed in this field and carries the best first-bend rating of the six, which matters at a track where the bend-one battle decides plenty. The trap is a slight concern – box five has managed only 16% at this exact grade and trip, the second-worst draw – and her trainer's record here is modest at 15% from her recent runners. Still, the combination of speed and bend ability gives her the best swing at the first turn of anyone in the race, and that's usually enough to compensate for a moderate box.
All recent starts have come in A5 company, form reading 41, 52, 52, 44, 80, 56 – the 80 five runs back shows she has a level well above what she's shown lately, and volatile form like this is a reason to respect her rather than dismiss her. Matches Pocket Hollie for the best speed figure in the race and boasts the best average time of anyone here, suggesting she reproduces her pace more reliably run to run. Trap four is a fair box at this grade and trip, but the standout angle is the trainer – J T Kingsley has won better than a third of runners sent out under these exact conditions, comfortably the strongest trainer record in this race even though the stable's overall figures are modest. The main threat to the selection if the gap at the bend goes her way.
Form of 44, 72, 54, 61, 51, 50 in graded A5 company throughout – a touch below the pick on his last run, but the 72 a few starts back shows genuine ability at this level. Sits in the trap that leads the track-wide trend for the venue and has the fastest last-time-out clocking of anyone here (30.39), even if his overall speed figure is a shade off the two out in front. The system's own probability model actually rates him the most likely winner of the six, largely on the strength of that trap and a tidy, consistent finishing kick. A workmanlike sort who is competitive without being the most exciting form on offer.
Steps down after running last time at A4, a class drop that's a genuine positive – form of 49, 51, 55, 48, 43, 70 shows a proper peak of 70 five runs back against tougher opposition. Has the fastest recorded best time of anyone in this line-up (29.84) though her recent clockings haven't matched it, finishing well off that mark last time. Trainer C Gardiner has a modest career record but is level for the punter in these exact conditions, which is a mild positive. Trap two is a fair, unremarkable draw at this grade and trip.
Recent form of 42, 41, 69, 62, 47, 49 in A5 company – a peak of 69 a few runs back shows some ability, but the last two starts have been modest. Drawn in the box that's been the weakest performer at this exact grade and trip, managing under 16% compared with 23% from the best draws, and her speed figure is the second-slowest of the six. Trainer has a fair overall record but nothing that stands out at these conditions specifically. Others in this field have stronger claims on both the draw and the clock.
Form reads 27, 46, 50, 58, 69, 49 – a modest last-time run but a 69 four starts back shows she's capable of better. Clearly the slowest in this field on both best and last-time figures, well off the pace the leading pair are showing, and her trainer's record here is the weakest of the six at 14%. Trap three is actually the strongest draw at this exact grade and trip, which is the one thing working in her favour, but the clock says she has too much to find on the couple of dogs up front.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins about one in four at this exact grade and trip, and the speed figures back it up almost identically – useful data, but nothing here is a standout with four dogs bunched within a single point of each other on the ratings.
Trap 3 23.5%, Trap 1 23.1%, Trap 2 20.1%, Trap 4 19.1%, Trap 5 16.2%, Trap 6 15.8%
1,408 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Droopys Favourit | 47 | 59 | Closer |
2Classic Bucko | 38 | 100 | Closer |
3Kilara Capaldi | 49 | 42 | All-Rounder |
4Front Loaded | 51 | 58 | Closer |
5Pocket Hollie | 53 | 24 | All-Rounder |
6Kates Bart | 51 | 23 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.