Gets the biggest head start from trap 1, which wins 22% of these handicaps — the best box in the race — but he's going to need every yard of it. Just three open races to his name, all modest, topping out at a 42-rated run, and he's comfortably the slowest in the field on the clock, over a second adrift of the best. His recent trials were slow too. The stagger gives him a puncher's chance of leading a long way; the finish is another matter.

Quietly interesting. Third in a handicap here last week with his best performance in months, and his 29.67 that day — flattered by the head start, mind — was quicker than he's ever run off level breaks. Trap 2 is the second-best handicap box at nearly 21%, and with eight course and distance runs including a win and four places, he knows the job. The worry is the overall level: his form figures bounce around and his level-break speed is well short of the classier back markers.

The great nearly-dog of Newcastle handicaps — his last six runs read like a metronome, all rated in the 50s, and he's hit the frame repeatedly without winning: one win from ten course and distance starts tells you everything. He ran within a whisker of his best last time, so he's in good nick, but trap 4 wins just 12% of these handicaps — the wrong part of the stagger, with dogs ahead to pass and faster dogs behind. Trainer Caile's 28% record is the best thing about his chance.

The fastest breaker in the field on early pace, which in a handicap means he could be onto the front markers quickly — but that's where the good news ends. He's winless in five course and distance attempts, his recent A5 form is moderate, and he's the type to show plenty early before weakening late, which Newcastle's long straight punishes. Trap 5 is statistically the worst handicap box here at under 12%. Hard to see him lasting home.