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PGR on Sky Sports Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rios Divab 2y 15 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 46 | 52 (3) | 67 (2) | 73 (1) | 49 (4) | 69 (1) | 61 (2) | 62 (1) | 47 (5) | 72 (1) | 71 (1) | 28 | 52 | 16 | 52 | 62 | 49 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Solway Oceanb 2y 27 | D Little — 21% R121 W25 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 80 | 60 (3) | 26 (3) | 32 (2) | 25 (4) | 37 (1) | 37 (5) | 18 (1) | 37 (6) | 72 (1) | - | 38 | 47 | 20 | 47 | 66 | 52 | 6 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crooks Peakyd 1y 16 | S Caile — 19% R195 W38 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 51 | 73 (1) | 62 (2) | 53 (3) | 64 (3) | 59 (3) | 45 (6) | 42 (5) | 37 (6) | - | - | 30 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 58 | 45 | 1 | 9/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Kerabellec Ellab 2y 37 | P Singlewood — 18% R122 W22 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 62 | 57 (3) | 39 (5) | 47 (4) | 78 (1) | 63 (2) | 74 (1) | 45 (6) | 72 (2) | 54 (4) | 67 (2) | 52 | 32 | 34 | 32 | 58 | 42 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Morning Fifib 2y 6 | M Gray — 14% R42 W6 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 45 | 56 (4) | 76 (1) | 61 (3) | 77 (1) | 58 (4) | 65 (2) | 62 (3) | 60 (3) | 50 (4) | 47 (5) | 26 | 34 | 44 | 33 | 63 | 50 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Dromana Krankyd 2y 25 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 49 | 52 (3) | 67 (3) | 46 (6) | 68 (3) | 61 (4) | 69 (2) | 76 (2) | 59 (4) | 54 (5) | - | 21 | 27 | - | 13 | 60 | 43 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dromana Kranky | 29.17 | 29.50 | 29.76 | 49 | +0.59 | 0 wins from 10 here | |
| 4 | Kerabellec Ella | 29.20 | 29.57 | 30.00 | 44 | +0.80 | 0.80 off her best | |
| 3 | Crooks Peaky | 29.24 | 29.59 | 29.30 | 54 | +0.06 | Won last time | |
| 1 | Rios Diva | 29.25 | 29.51 | 30.07 | 48 | +0.82 | 5 wins from 10 here | |
| 5 | Morning Fifi | 29.25 | 29.44 | 29.51 | 53 | +0.26 | Dual A4 winner here | |
| 2 | Solway Ocean | 29.32 | 29.36 | 29.22 | 56 | -0.10 | Fastest breaker |
Newcastle's 480m is a fair galloping trip with a long home straight where late runners thrive, and at A4 grade the inside boxes rule — traps 1 and 3 both win around 21% from big samples while trap 5 is the weak spot at under 17%. The early script is easy to write: Solway Ocean owns the first bend in this field, with early pace and bend numbers miles clear of the rest, and he'll have them strung out by the back straight. But he's a dog who can empty late, and behind him the race is stacked with proven finishers. Crooks Peaky, who arrives on a career-best win and ran within a whisker of his best last week, is drawn to get every inch of the joint-best box in trap 3 and should be tracking the leader throughout. Rios Diva, who has made this course and distance her personal property with five wins from ten attempts, and Morning Fifi, a dual A4 winner here this summer, will both be running on when it matters. A competitive, honest A4 where the front-runner sets it up — and the improving Peaky looks the one taking over when he stops.
Arrives in the form of his life — a 73-rated win at A5 last time out capped a sequence that has improved almost every run, and he steps up to A4 off the back of it. He ran within 0.06 of his career-best clock last week, holds the second-best speed rating in the field, and his 29.24 best puts him right among the fastest here. Trainer Caile, operating at a 28% strike rate, doesn't move dogs up a grade for fun — this is a placement with intent. He's versatile enough to sit handy behind the fast-breaking Solway Ocean and strike when the leader's stride shortens up the long straight. The draw completes the case: trap 3 is the joint-best box at this grade. One win from eight course and distance runs is the only quibble against a profile that's improving by the week.
The course and distance specialist of the field — five wins and seven placed efforts from ten attempts here is a 50% strike rate that dwarfs anything else in the race. Her recent form is rock solid too: a win and a second in her last three, all in this grade or just below, with a 74-rated peak three runs back that would win most A4s. She's slow away and does her damage late, which is precisely the style Newcastle's long straight rewards, and she gets the rail draw in trap 1, the best box at this grade. Her last run was a touch flat by her standards — 0.82 off her best — which is the nagging doubt, but her body of work at this course and distance makes her the clear danger.
The speed of the race. Top speed rating in the field, the best average time, and he clocked the fastest recent run here — 29.22 when third at this grade last week, quicker than his listed best. His early pace and first-bend numbers are in a different league to this field: he will lead, probably by lengths. Most of his recent form was in sprint company, so the question is whether he sees out a strongly-run 480m — he's the type to weaken late, and this track's long run-in is unforgiving. But if he's allowed an easy lead he could have first-run on all of them and hang on. One win from three course and distance tries.
A proper A4 campaigner — all her recent racing is at this exact level, with two wins and five places from ten course and distance runs and a 78-rated winning peak four starts back. On her best clock, 29.20, only one dog here has ever gone quicker. But her last three runs have been flat, the latest 0.80 slower than that best, and she needs to bounce back rather than continue the slide. Good early pace means she should sit handy behind Ocean, which is a nice position if the leader stops.
Two wins in her last five, both at this grade and trip, and a 77-rated peak that stands comparison with anything here. Her average time is the second-best in the field and she's another who finishes her races hard, staying on when others tire. The knock is the draw — trap 5 is the worst box at this grade, winning under 17% — and her last run was a modest fourth. With ten course and distance runs behind her she knows the way round; she just has more traffic to negotiate than the similarly-styled Rios Diva on the rail.
Drops in from A3 grade where he's been running honest, consistent races — third in four of his last five — against better dogs than these, and his 29.17 best is the fastest time in the field. So why the caution? Because he's had ten cracks at this course and distance and never won one: two places from ten is the record of a dog who finds one or two too good every time. The grade drop gives him every chance to break the duck, and dogs coming down from A3 with his consistency are always dangerous, but the wide draw doesn't help a dog without gate speed.
Key insight: From 2,152 A4 runs at this trip, traps 1 and 3 lead at around 21% with trap 5 the worst at 16.7%. The top-rated dog and the fastest dog win at almost identical rates (21.7% vs 21.5%) — at this grade, course and distance pedigree is the separator, and dogs with a 35%+ course win rate convert at 22.5%.
T1:21.1% T2:18.3% T3:21.0% T4:19.1% T5:16.7% T6:17.7%
2,152 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Rios Diva | 46 | 60 | Closer |
2Solway Ocean | 78 | 0 | Fader |
3Crooks Peaky | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Kerabellec Ella | 63 | 13 | Fader |
5Morning Fifi | 49 | 61 | Closer |
6Dromana Kranky | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rios Diva | — | 0.619 |
| 2 | Solway Ocean | 0.604 | 0.612 |
| 3 | Crooks Peaky | — | 0.621 |
| 4 | Kerabellec Ella | — | 0.616 |
| 5 | Morning Fifi | — | 0.614 |
| 6 | Dromana Kranky | — | 0.615 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.