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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Afternoon Callb 1y 15 | D Winder — 15% R138 W21 P65 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 46 | 66 (2) | 47 (5) | 49 (5) | 72 (1) | 54 (4) | 61 (2) | 50 (4) | 56 (4) | 50 (1) | - | 35 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 57 | 51 | 1 | 15/8 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Footfield Squeakd 4y 34 | M Gray — 14% R42 W6 P21 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 45 | 70 (1) | 56 (3) | 45 (5) | 52 (3) | 57 (3) | 66 (1) | 56 (3) | 50 (4) | 55 (3) | - | 25 | 37 | 21 | 26 | 57 | 42 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Geordie Gordond 2y 7 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 51 (5) | 51 (5) | 59 (2) | 53 (4) | 15 (2) | 73 (1) | 50 (4) | 54 (4) | 56 (3) | 71 (1) | 45 | 39 | 29 | 26 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 7/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Macks Choiceb 2y 1 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 25 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Enjoyb 4y 17 | R J Buckton — 20% R208 W42 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 53 | 50 (4) | 50 (4) | 57 (3) | 71 (1) | 51 (3) | 47 (4) | 69 (1) | 58 (2) | 62 (1) | 52 (2) | 31 | 32 | 12 | 29 | 56 | 45 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Geordie Gordon | 29.27 | 29.62 | 29.80 | 51 | +0.53 | A4 dropper | |
| 1 | Afternoon Call | 29.32 | 29.59 | 29.32 | 57 | 0.00 | Career-best last week | |
| 6 | Swift Enjoy | 29.39 | 29.67 | 29.66 | 49 | +0.27 | 3 wins from 10 here | |
| 2 | Footfield Squeak | 29.45 | 29.67 | 29.67 | 48 | +0.22 | Won last time | |
| 4 | Macks Choice | No open race form — racing debut. Trialled 29.58 (fast) here on 10 July, but trial form is unreliable for open racing. | — | Debut run | ||||
Five go to traps for this A5 over Newcastle's fair 480m, a track whose long home straight keeps the strong finishers interested to the line. At this grade trap 3 is the plum draw, winning 22.9% from 442 runs, with trap 2 the weak spot at under 17%. The early pace map is clear: Geordie Gordon has the sharpest break and best bend numbers in the field and should show the way from the favoured trap 3, with Swift Enjoy pressing from the wide draw. Neither is certain to see it out — both are the type to weaken when the straight stretches out in front of them. Sitting behind them are three patient sorts: Afternoon Call, the fastest dog in the race and running a career-best clock only last week, Footfield Squeak, who won this grade on Saturday, and the complete unknown Macks Choice, having his first race after a pair of quick trials. The script this track writes most often — leaders tiring, fastest closer swooping late — reads like it was written for Afternoon Call.
The fastest dog in the race, and getting faster. His 29.32 last week wasn't just a career-best clock — it came with a strong second at this grade and a 66-rated performance, his best in months. He tops the field on speed rating, average time and last-time speed, has two wins and four places from ten course and distance runs, and his patient, late-running style is exactly what Newcastle's long home straight rewards — especially in a race where the two most likely leaders both have a habit of stopping. The rail draw is respectable at this grade, and with the fastest dog and the top-rated dog winning these A5s at an identical 22.6%, a dog who is arguably both is the solid play.
The structural angles all point his way: dropping from A4 grade where he's been competitive, the fastest best time in the field at 29.27, the sharpest early pace and bend numbers, and the plum trap 3 draw that wins nearly 23% of these. Trainer Fenwick's 22% adds polish. So why isn't he the pick? Because he hasn't run near that best clock in months — he was 0.53 slow last time and his recent form at A4 reads fifth, fifth. He'll almost certainly lead this field into the back straight; whether he's still pulling at the business end is the gamble. A grade-dropper with first-run on a track this fair is always dangerous.
Comes here off a win at this exact grade and trip on Saturday, running a 70-rated race that was his best effort of the summer. Two wins from ten course and distance starts and a trainer, M Gray, ticking along at 22%. The draw is the problem: trap 2 is the worst box at this grade, and he's another slow-away type who'll need luck threading through from the inside. His best clock is also the slowest in this field, so the win last week needs to be the start of something rather than the peak of it.
The complete unknown — this is his first open race, with nothing but trials to his name. Those trials offer encouragement: a fast 29.58 over course and distance last Friday and a sharp sprint trial before that. But trial form is unreliable for open racing — no crowding, no bend traffic, no pack to race through — and debutants often run green when they meet real competition for the first time, drifting off a true line and losing lengths in traffic. Trainer Fenwick knows what he has; the rest of us are guessing. Impossible to assess with confidence and impossible to back with conviction.
The best course and distance record in the field — three wins and five places from ten starts, an 80% in-the-money rate at this exact track and trip. He's a confirmed A5 campaigner with decent early pace who'll race prominently from the wide draw. The concerns are recent: three runs without a place since his last win, times drifting a quarter-second off his best, and a style that can flatten out late just where this track asks the hardest questions. Trap 6 wins only 16.5% at this grade too. Rock-solid each-way profile; the win needs his early-summer sparkle back.
Key insight: From 2,502 A5 runs at this trip, trap 3 leads at 22.9% and trap 2 trails at 16.9%. The top-rated and fastest dogs win at an identical 22.6% — either signal works at this grade, and when they point the same way the case strengthens.
T1:19.4% T2:16.9% T3:22.9% T4:20.3% T5:16.5% T6:16.5%
2,502 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Afternoon Call | 45 | 70 | Closer |
2Footfield Squeak | 45 | 67 | Closer |
3Geordie Gordon | 59 | 23 | Fader |
4Macks Choice | — | — | No data |
6Swift Enjoy | 55 | 33 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.