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#Lovethedogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Alnwick Tommyd 4y 19 | A Harrison — 22% R543 W118 P320 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 62 | 49 (3) | 42 (3) | 48 (2) | 49 (2) | 30 (6) | 46 (4) | 46 (4) | 54 (3) | 53 (3) | 52 (2) | 31 | 31 | 20 | 19 | 46 | 48 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mollys Aoibheb 2y 3 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 39 | 46 (3) | 42 (4) | 53 (2) | 46 (4) | 61 (1) | 62 (1) | 46 (4) | 54 (2) | 38 (4) | 32 (5) | 24 | 21 | 32 | 26 | 49 | 45 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crooks Fearghald 3y 8 | S Caile — 19% R195 W38 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 51 | 63 (2) | 43 (6) | 35 (5) | 52 (3) | 38 (5) | 60 (3) | 53 (2) | 39 (5) | 47 (3) | 48 (3) | 21 | 23 | 27 | 20 | 48 | 41 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Howay Suarezd 1y 2 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 54 | 60 (1) | 29 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 32 | 25 | 10 | 27 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 5/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Kathys Giftd 5y 25 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 47 (2) | 56 (1) | 56 (1) | 27 (3) | 49 (2) | 51 (1) | 33 (5) | 28 (6) | 39 (4) | 22 (5) | 54 | 23 | 22 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 6 | 16/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Alnwick Boltd 4y 36 | A Harrison — 22% R543 W118 P320 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 50 | 57 (1) | 23 (4) | 50 (3) | 25 (4) | 28 (3) | 23 (5) | 17 (6) | 27 (3) | 29 (2) | 39 (5) | 26 | 21 | 8 | 33 | 50 | 38 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mollys Aoibhe | 29.58 | 29.86 | 29.88 | 55 | +0.30 | Fastest best time | |
| 1 | Alnwick Tommy | 29.60 | 29.95 | 29.73 | 55 | +0.13 | 0 wins from 10 here | |
| 3 | Crooks Fearghal | 29.74 | 30.04 | 29.37 | 47 | -0.37 | HP 29.37 | |
| 6 | Alnwick Bolt | 29.86 | 29.94 | 29.87 | 51 | +0.01 | Won last time | |
| 5 | Kathys Gift | 29.87 | 30.11 | 29.77 | 47 | -0.10 | 3 wins from 8 here | |
| 4 | Howay Suarez | 29.94 | 30.17 | 29.94 | 44 | 0.00 | Won on 2nd start |
The card signs off with an A7 over Newcastle's fair 480m — a grade where the ratings are notoriously unreliable here, with the top-rated dog winning under 20% of these, so the race-reading matters more than the numbers. Trap 4 is the best box at this grade at 22%, with traps 1 and 2 the poor relations at 15-16%. Alnwick Tommy is the clear pace angle: the best break and first-bend numbers in the field mean he should lead them round the early bends from the rail. But he's winless in ten attempts at this course and distance and habitually weakens late — this track's long home straight has been his undoing over and over. That leaves the finishers queuing up behind: Mollys Aoibhe — the fastest dog in the race on best time and speed rating, and a dual course-and-distance winner — is the one best equipped to run him down late, with Crooks Fearghal, who clocked the fastest recent run of anyone here last week, and the in-form Kathys Gift arriving alongside. A messy, winnable race where the clock leader with a proven finishing kick gets the nod.
The clock leader — fastest best time in the race at 29.58, tied-top speed rating, and the best average time too. She's a proven winner here with two wins and four places from ten course and distance starts, and her strong late running fits this track's shape perfectly, especially with a vulnerable front-runner to aim at. Her recent ratings have drifted from the low 60s to the mid 40s, which is why the confidence stays tentative, and trap 2 is a poor box at this grade at 15.4%. But at a grade where the ratings routinely mislead, the stopwatch is the most honest witness in the room — and it says she's the best dog in this race, with a tiring front-runner to aim at and the longest straight in the north to do it in.
The winner in the field. Three wins and five placed efforts from eight course and distance starts is a 37% strike rate at this exact track and trip — the kind of record the data here rewards — and her current form backs it up: back-to-back A8 wins last month, then a strong second on her return to A7 last week, running 29.77, faster than her listed best. She's rated highly suitable for both the distance and the draw, she races handily without needing to lead, and while trap 5 isn't a favoured box at this grade, her record says she handles this track better than almost anything else in the race. Her raw times are a step below the selection's, which is the difference between them, but a 37% course strike rate makes her the biggest threat in the field.
The pacemaker. His break and first-bend ability are the best in this field, and from the rail he should have them all chasing his tail through the opening half. But the record book is merciless: ten course and distance runs, zero wins, and his last five A7 starts have produced a stack of seconds and thirds as he weakens exactly where Newcastle's long straight starts asking questions. His clock figures are respectable — 29.60 best, tied-top speed rating — which is why he keeps hitting the frame. The trap 1 box wins barely 16% at this grade too.
Caught the eye last week with his best run in months — second in a handicap, clocking 29.37, though that time was flattered by a head start. It capped a mixed spell of handicap and graded runs, and the harder truth is he's had ten cracks at this course and distance without winning one. Trainer Caile's 28% strike rate and the good trap 3 draw (nearly 21% at this grade) are genuine positives, and his versatile running style keeps him out of trouble. Improving, well drawn, but yet to prove he can actually win one of these.
Two races into his career and already a winner — he took an A7 here on Saturday by finding plenty late, a big step up from a quiet debut. He draws trap 4, the best box at this grade at 22%, and trainer Fenwick's 22% strike rate suggests the dog is well handled. The flip side of a two-race career is that one win doesn't tell you much: his times are the slowest in the field so far, and young dogs can bounce around wildly in their early runs. Open to any amount of improvement, impossible to weight with confidence.
Won at A8 last week with his best performance in months, earning this step back up to A7 — a grade he's tried once before without success. His overall pattern is boom-or-bust: a 57-rated win one week, low-20s clunkers either side, and his career figures swing accordingly. One win and a place from three course and distance starts is fair, trap 6 is a decent box at this grade at 20.3%, and he ran within a hundredth of his best last time. If the winning version shows up he's involved; the other version finishes fifth.
Key insight: From 2,214 A7 runs at this trip the top-rated dog wins just 19.7% — this grade is where the numbers are least trustworthy at Newcastle. Trap 4 is the best box at 22%, traps 1 and 2 the worst at 15-16%. Proven course-and-distance winners are worth extra here.
T1:16.1% T2:15.4% T3:20.9% T4:22.0% T5:16.3% T6:20.3%
2,214 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Alnwick Tommy | 60 | 30 | Fader |
2Mollys Aoibhe | 40 | 87 | Closer |
3Crooks Fearghal | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
4Howay Suarez | 49 | 39 | All-Rounder |
5Kathys Gift | 50 | 49 | All-Rounder |
6Alnwick Bolt | 52 | 51 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alnwick Tommy | — | 0.624 |
| 2 | Mollys Aoibhe | — | 0.622 |
| 3 | Crooks Fearghal | — | 0.628 |
| 4 | Howay Suarez | — | 0.629 |
| 5 | Kathys Gift | 0.614 | 0.627 |
| 6 | Alnwick Bolt | 0.615 | 0.624 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.