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Arena Racing Company Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Newinn Sassyb 3y 24 | R J Buckton — 20% R208 W42 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 57 | 61 (5) | 70 (3) | 65 (2) | 87 (1) | 71 (3) | 83 (1) | 48 (4) | 72 (2) | 82 (1) | 31 (3) | 54 | 62 | 37 | 47 | 70 | 54 | 2 | 13/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Crooks Sambucab 1y 18 | S Caile — 19% R195 W38 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 46 | 76 (1) | 66 (2) | 82 (1) | 64 (4) | 77 (1) | 58 (3) | 58 (4) | 62 (3) | 51 (5) | - | 28 | 34 | 18 | 43 | 69 | 52 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Fooled Againd 2y 6 | D Winder — 15% R138 W21 P65 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 63 | 72 (2) | 64 (4) | 61 (3) | 59 (3) | 88 (5) | 54 (1) | 75 (5) | 49 (2) | 34 (5) | - | 47 | 44 | 27 | 30 | 66 | 54 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Toddys Aced 3y 6 | R J Buckton — 20% R208 W42 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 51 | 83 (1) | 51 (5) | 76 (1) | 72 (2) | 67 (3) | 53 (5) | 60 (3) | 75 (2) | 66 (3) | 56 (4) | 37 | 20 | 20 | 40 | 68 | 54 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Greenwell Genuisd 1y 16 | R Hale — 23% R60 W14 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 41 | 60 (4) | 82 (1) | 78 (1) | 79 (1) | 60 (3) | 54 (5) | 46 (5) | 58 (2) | 56 (3) | - | 51 | 34 | - | 38 | 67 | 48 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jacktavern Keanod 3y 25 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 46 | 45 (6) | 61 (4) | 55 (4) | 65 (4) | 86 (1) | 73 (2) | 65 (3) | 86 (1) | 82 (1) | 78 (1) | 39 | 34 | 27 | 29 | 65 | 45 | 6 | 8/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fooled Again | 28.86 | 29.34 | 29.12 | 56 | +0.26 | Fastest last week | |
| 1 | Newinn Sassy | 28.96 | 29.27 | 29.64 | 49 | +0.68 | Back from opens | |
| 4 | Toddys Ace | 29.01 | 29.29 | 29.03 | 57 | +0.02 | Top speed rating | |
| 6 | Jacktavern Keano | 29.03 | 29.27 | 29.74 | 47 | +0.71 | 4 course wins | |
| 2 | Crooks Sambuca | 29.11 | 29.34 | 29.35 | 51 | +0.24 | Won last time | |
| 5 | Greenwell Genuis | 29.12 | 29.48 | 29.61 | 43 | +0.49 | 3 wins in last 5 |
The pick of the card — a deep A2 over Newcastle's fair 480m, where the long home straight famously gives closers their chance and trap 5 is the statistical sweet spot at this grade, winning 22.6%, with trap 6 the worst at 17.2%. Fooled Again sets the tempo: his early pace and first-bend numbers are the best in the race and he'll be first to the turn from trap 3. Newinn Sassy, back from an open-race adventure, has the toe to press him early from the rail. Behind them it's a wall of finishers — Toddys Ace, Crooks Sambuca and Greenwell Genuis are all strong-staying types who'll be flying late, so the leader gets no peace here. The difference this time is that Fooled Again is no soft leader: he ran the fastest recent time in the field when second at this grade last week and his best clock is the quickest of all six. If he backs that up, the closers run out of track.
Ticks the boxes that matter most at this grade. His 28.86 best is the fastest time in the field, he ran the quickest recent race of anyone here — 29.12 when a close second at this grade last week — and his early pace and first-bend ratings are both the best in the race, so he controls it from the front. All six of his recent starts have been at A2, so there's no grade guesswork, and his 88-rated peak earlier this summer shows the ceiling. Yes, he's the type who can get tired late, and this track's long straight has ruined many a front-runner — but a leader with the fastest raw speed in the field is a very different proposition from a slow one, and last week's clock says he's at the top of his game right now.
The top speed rating in the field and he arrives off a brilliant 83-rated win at A3 last week, clocking 29.03 — just 0.02 off his career best, which tells you he's peaking right now. Two wins and four places from ten course and distance runs, and his strong-finishing style is tailor-made for Newcastle's long run home. Stepping back up to A2, where he's been competitive before, and if the front-runners overcook it early he's the one arriving latest and fastest. The most obvious threat to the selection by a wide margin.
The highest average performance in the field and she's been running at a level above this — her last start was in open-class company, where fifth was no disgrace, and before that she strung together a win and places at this grade. Three wins from nine course and distance runs, sharp enough early to hold the rail from trap 1, and her 28.96 best is second only to the selection. The only flag is her recent clock: 0.68 slower than her best last time. If the open-race trip sharpened rather than drained her, she's right in this.
In cracking form — won a handicap here last week with a 76-rated run, and before that climbed from A4 through A3 to A2 with two wins and a second along the way. Three wins from nine course and distance starts, trainer Caile at his usual 28%, and a strong late run that plays well on this track. He's another who gives the leaders a start though, and his best clock of 29.11 leaves him needing a personal best to catch the selection on level terms.
Won three on the bounce through A5, A4 and A3 earlier this summer — a genuine surge — before finding this grade a touch hot last time when fourth. Three wins from nine course and distance runs and the best draw in the race: trap 5 wins 22.6% at this grade, the strongest box. He's very slow away, though, the slowest breaker in the field, and against this quality of early pace he'll be conceding serious ground into the first bend. Trainer Hale's 26% strike rate is worth respect. He needs the race to collapse in front of him, which, to be fair, is possible here.
The course specialist on paper — four wins and five places from ten course and distance runs, the best record in the field — but the trend is worrying: his ratings have slid from an 86-rated win five starts back to a well-beaten 45 last time, and he was 0.71 off his best last week. Add trap 6, the worst box at this grade, and there's too much going against a dog whose engine is clearly capable of better. If he bounces back to the level of that 29.03 best he's a player; nothing in his recent runs says it's coming this week.
Key insight: From 1,634 A2 runs at this trip the fastest dog on the clock wins 27.1% — the strongest signal at the grade, well clear of the top-rated dog at 22.1%. Trap 5 is the best draw at 22.6%; trap 6 the worst at 17.2%.
T1:18.9% T2:20.6% T3:19.1% T4:20.1% T5:22.6% T6:17.2%
1,634 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Newinn Sassy | 62 | 20 | Fader |
2Crooks Sambuca | 47 | 57 | Closer |
3Fooled Again | 64 | 7 | Fader |
4Toddys Ace | 46 | 60 | Closer |
5Greenwell Genuis | 41 | 59 | Closer |
6Jacktavern Keano | 53 | 43 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newinn Sassy | 0.600 | 0.610 |
| 2 | Crooks Sambuca | — | 0.611 |
| 3 | Fooled Again | 0.603 | 0.611 |
| 4 | Toddys Ace | — | 0.610 |
| 5 | Greenwell Genuis | — | 0.616 |
| 6 | Jacktavern Keano | — | 0.610 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.