Draws the golden ticket — trap 1 has won a third of these 640m handicaps, the best record of any box, and he gets the biggest head start to go with it. He's a proven stayer at the trip too, winning one of these marathons two starts into his handicap spell and running a solid second at A6 last week. The catch is raw speed: his clock figures are among the slowest here, so he needs the stagger and stamina to do all the work. Over six bends with tiring leaders, that's not a silly plan.

In the form of her life — won at A4 last week with a 74-rated run, three wins in her last five overall, and she's a proven 640m performer with a marathon handicap win among her three tries at the trip. Any other box and she'd be a serious player. But trap 2 has won just 5% of these races from 40 attempts — the worst handicap box on the card by miles — and she's a slow-breaking closer who'll get swallowed by the dogs behind before the first bend. Form says yes; the draw history says it's a mountain.

Explosive early — his early pace and first-bend numbers are maxed out — and he won at A6 last week, so he arrives sharp. He's placed in two of his three previous 640m handicaps without winning, and that record sums him up: he attacks the first half of these marathons and then the fuel light comes on. Six bends is a long way home for a dog with his profile, and his recent 39.96 came with a handicap start flattering it. Likely to be prominent a long way, likely to be passed late.

Three starts back he ran a perfect 100-rated race, and earlier this year he was winning in open company — the ability is genuine. But his last three runs have been flat and getting flatter, drifting from 86 down to 52, and his only crack at this course and distance produced a fourth. He's a deep closer with decent late strength, which fits the trip, and trap 5 has a respectable record in these handicaps. Needs to arrest the slide, but he's the classic marathon sneak-up type if he does.