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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Choices Bevb 2y 6 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 26 (3) | 30 (1) | 24 (4) | 22 (3) | 25 (2) | 25 (3) | 21 (4) | 28 (2) | 21 (5) | 25 (4) | 30 | 31 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 26 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Choices Expressb 4y 25 | J M Liles — 17% R388 W65 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 21 (4) | 27 (2) | 24 (4) | 29 (3) | 31 (1) | 24 (2) | 29 (1) | 24 (3) | 16 (6) | 24 (4) | 29 | 25 | 38 | 32 | 25 | 21 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Forest Leannb 6y 15 | A Ioannou — 13% R93 W12 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 23 (3) | 22 (5) | 26 (3) | 25 (2) | 30 (1) | 29 (3) | 25 (5) | 32 (1) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 33 | 31 | 38 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballygraigue Avab 1y 17 | D D Porter — 16% R472 W77 P252 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 45 (3) | 43 (2) | 29 (5) | 36 (5) | 22 (5) | 31 (5) | 20 (3) | 35 (6) | 28 (1) | - | 4 | 30 | 28 | 24 | 34 | 28 | 3 | 6/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Killaheen Beautyb 2y 6 | S J Roberts — 0% R6 W0 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 26 (3) | 22 (4) | 16 (6) | 20 (6) | 20 (6) | 30 (3) | 26 (3) | 28 (3) | 31 (2) | 32 (1) | 34 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 24 | 25 | 1 | 7/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tolpuddleduchessb 3y 18 | K J Crocker — 18% R121 W22 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 54 (1) | 29 (1) | 35 (4) | 37 (3) | 31 (4) | 26 (6) | 23 (2) | 32 (5) | 51 (6) | 19 (5) | 15 | 21 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 11/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Forest Leann | 16.28 | 16.54 | 16.68 | 52 | +0.40 | Fastest best time | |
| 5 | Killaheen Beauty | 16.29 | 16.54 | 16.73 | 52 | +0.44 | 16.29 trial | |
| 4 | Ballygraigue Ava | 16.37 | 16.55 | 16.71 | 51 | +0.34 | Class drop, best trap | |
| 2 | Choices Express | 16.45 | 16.67 | 16.70 | 44 | +0.25 | Slow last time | |
| 1 | Choices Bev | 16.47 | 16.62 | 16.54 | 50 | +0.07 | 1 win from 10 | |
| 6 | Tolpuddleduchess | 16.47 | 16.74 | 16.42 | 48 | -0.05 | 2 wins in a row |
The 270-metre trip at Towcester is settled at the boxes, and D4 has a distinctive pattern — the middle boxes rule, with trap 4 the best at 23.1% and traps 3 and 5 close behind, while trap 6 props up the table at 15.6%. The fastest dog in the field wins better than one in four at this grade, and the speed figures here are packed tight, so the draw could be the difference. Ballygraigue Ava drops back from longer-trip B5 company in decent form and lands the plum middle box with a razor-sharp opening stride. Tolpuddleduchess arrives the hottest dog in the race — two wins on the bounce including a 54-rated career best — but from the coldest box. Forest Leann and Killaheen Beauty own the two fastest times among the sprint regulars, and Choices Bev and Choices Express complete a typically tangled bottom-grade dash where a clean break wins it.
Drops back to the minimum trip from B5 company over 460 metres, where she's been in the form of her life — third and second in her last two with ratings of 45 and 43, figures nothing else in this field has approached this summer. She's no stranger to the dash either: six course and distance runs with a win, a best of 16.37, and the sharpest opening strides in the race alongside Tolpuddleduchess. Crucially, she lands trap 4 — the single best box at this grade and trip. Her earlier sprint form at D3 was modest, but she's a stronger, quicker dog now than in May, and the middle draw suits her style of going straight and hard early.
The form dog — two wins on the spin, first a sprint at D5 and then a career-best 54-rated victory over 460 metres at B5 grade a fortnight ago, and she's hit the frame in all three course and distance starts. Trainer Crocker's 22% strike rate is the best attached to this race. She matched her personal best of 16.47 when winning here last month, though that clock still leaves her a length shy of the quickest in this field, and she's landed the worst box at the grade — trap 6 wins barely one in six of these. Momentum against the draw.
Steady rather than spectacular — a win at this grade in mid-June among a string of thirds, with one win and three places from ten course and distance starts. Her times sit mid-pack, her best of 16.47 a couple of lengths off the sharpest here, and the rail box has been below average at this grade where the middle traps dominate. She's rarely far away, but winning requires several quicker rivals to falter.
Hasn't raced since 20 June, when she was a well-beaten fourth at this grade clocking 16.85 — nearly half a second off her best. The earlier summer form was better, including a win at this level in late May and two wins from ten course and distance starts overall, but the field's slowest speed figures and a near-month absence make this a watching brief. She has hit the frame in four of her ten trips here, so a place isn't out of the question.
The fastest personal best among the sprint regulars at 16.28 and the joint-top speed figure in the field, with a rock-solid course record — two wins and four places from ten starts, in the frame in 40% of her career races. She's been placed in two of her last four, including third a fortnight ago, and draws well in trap 3. The nit-pick is that she hasn't actually won since early May and her recent clocks have been in the 16.6s rather than near her best. Right in the mix.
The quiet speedball — her best of 16.29 is second-fastest in the field and she zipped through a solo spin here in June in exactly that time, the sharpest practice run of anyone in this race. The graded form doesn't match the clock though: one win and two places from ten course and distance starts, and she was sixth three times running in the spring before two slightly better efforts this month. Drawn in a strong box for the grade. If the June sparkle translates to race night she's a danger to everything; the form book says believe it when you see it.
Key insight: The middle boxes dominate D4 over 270m — trap 4 best at 23.1% from 420 runs with traps 3 and 5 close up, trap 6 worst at 15.6%. The fastest dog in the field wins 26.8% from 824 runs, the strongest signal at this grade.
T1:17.8% T2:19.7% T3:21.8% T4:23.1% T5:22.2% T6:15.6%
2,404 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 460m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Choices Bev | 0.615 | — | — |
| 2 | Choices Express | 0.617 | — | — |
| 3 | Forest Leann | 0.612 | — | — |
| 4 | Ballygraigue Ava | 0.613 | 0.616 | — |
| 5 | Killaheen Beauty | 0.612 | — | — |
| 6 | Tolpuddleduchess | 0.620 | 0.619 | 0.339 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.