First race since late May, and the form before the break had gone cold — three straight sixths after a 52-rated win at this grade in early May. The career record of a win every four starts and trainer Crocker's 22% strike rate demand respect, and he's been kept ticking over with a couple of tidy practice spins, including a solo over this trip in June. A patient runner who needs the leaders to fold — which, in this race, they might. Fitness first time back is the question.

Still waiting for a first career win, and she's drawn the coldest box on the card — trap 2 has won just one of these in fourteen tries at this grade. That's a shame, because the recent form isn't bad: two seconds at this level in mid-June and a third at A8 grade over 500 metres last week, with the best first-bend figures in the race. She'll be prominent early, but the record says she finds one too good, and the draw stacks the deck further against her.

A sprinter making a first competitive attempt at the 460-metre trip, and the signs aren't encouraging: no graded run at this distance, a very slow solo practice spin over the trip a fortnight ago, and no race of any kind since mid-June. His sprint form at D4 was modest — one win at D5 in May the highlight. Trainer Philpott's 24% strike rate is the best in the race, which is the only reason for a second look, but the stamina question is completely unanswered.

The 56-rated win at A8 grade over 500 metres in late May is the best single performance anyone in this race has produced this year, but four straight fourths at this level since tell you he's struggled to reproduce it over the shorter trip — no win or place from four course and distance starts. The clock is trending the right way, though: 28.18 last time was his best yet at the distance. He gives the leaders a start and runs on, which fits a race where the pace looks suicidal. Not hopeless from the wide box, but he needs the front pair to fold completely.